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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (2517) ORMA - 2001 JUNE 8

THIS UPDATE REPLACES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE OF 5 JUNE.


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[Prediction by Edwin Goffin]

[Prediction using OCCULT software]

The path given by Edwin Goffin crosses the Pacific Ocean to the Australian coastline around Brisbane. It then runs west acoss central Australia to the Western Australian coastline between Geraldton and Carnarvon. The path given by OCCULT lies around 0.3" to the south and a whole 5.5 minutes later.


UPDATE No. 2: 8 June 2001

This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of the Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station and Bill Owen of the Table Mountain Observatory supplemented with historical data from the AstDys database. The Hipparcos position of the target star has been used.

Summary:

This updated path lies around 0.4" to the south and about 5.5 minutes later than that given by Goffin. The updated path lies to the north of North Cape on the North Island of New Zealand - closest approach to Auckland at 14:58:30 UT. Across the Tasman Sea, the path makes landfall around Wollongong at 15:01:40 UT. The path then passes just to the north of Canberra (15:02 UT) and then crosses Adelaide at 15:03:25 UT. Across the Great Australian Bight, the path runs from a point between Albury and Esperence to around Bunbury (15:06 UT).

Observers should note that with the most recent data received, the certainty of the calculation has actually deteriorated and the error band is now considerably larger. Observers as far from the line as Brisbane, Hobart and Auckland all stand a distinct chance of observing and occultation. Observers should also note the unusually large change in the expected times for this event relative to Goffin's prediction. Please centre your observing windows around the times indicated in this update and monitor for as long as practicable to cover any eventuality.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htm

THE EVENT AT ONE GLIMPSE:

The Occultation Path: Data for the target star: Data for the minor planet: Data for the event:

Orma Update

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.

Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations] [Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details] [Timing Details] [Reporting Details] [Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]


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