THE UPDATED PATH

This updated path lies around 1.0" to the north of that given by Goffin and around 2 minutes earlier. The path crosses the Kimberley region of northern Western Australia in the area of Derby around 12:08:30 UT. Running east, the path passes to the north of Mount Isa to emerge from the north Queesland coastline between Townsville and Ingham around 12:10:40 UT.

Calculation Source

This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston, Medina (Seattle), Washington, USA based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, Raoul Behrend of the Geneva Observatory and Stepano Sposetti supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The UCAC position of the target star has been used combined with Tycho 2 proper motion data.

• Date and approx. UT time of event: 2001 November 10 - 12:10 UT
• Magnitude of target star: 9.81
• Magnitude drop [mag]: 4.4
• Estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.8
• Angular distance to moon, phase of moon [deg,%]: 149, 28%
• Goffin's original chart reference: A01_1129

• Approximate width [km]: 95
• Uncertainty [path widths]: +/- 0.71 (1 sigma)
• Remarks: Uncertainities are given on the basis of the nominal star position errors and the expected asteroid positional accuracy.
• Circles along the path are OCCULT calculated exact centerline points !!!!

• Name: TYC 1119-00205-1 = SAO 126861 = PPM 171861
• Constellation: Pegasus
• J2000 position [h,m,s; ^o,',"]: 21h 31m 15.0251s; +7^o 56' 52.814"
• Position source: UCAC + Tycho 2 Proper Motion
• Estimated accuracy ["]: 0.041" (0.030", 0.030")
• V mag [mag]: 9.81
• B-V [mag]: +0.47
• Remarks:
• The target star is in far western Pegasus near the border with Equuleus. The target star lies 3.7 degrees southwest of Enif - epsilon Pegasi (magnitude = 2.4)

• Number, name: (445) Edna
• Approx. diameter [km]: 89.9
• Source of used astrometry: USNO - Flagstaff Station (Ron Stone), Geneva Obs (Raoul Behrend), Stepano Sposetti, AstDys
• Number of used observations: 262
• Number of rejected observations: 42
• Time covered by the observations: 1901 02 14 - 2001 10 29
• Update computed by: Steve Preston, Medina, Washington, USA (Orbfit).

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.