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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (1263) VARSAVIA - 2001 DECEMBER 4

[Prediction using OCCULT software + finder charts]

The prediction given by OCCULT runs several path widths to the south of New Zealand and Tasmania.


UPDATE: 2 DECEMBER 2001

THE UPDATED PATH

Varsavia Update

This updated path lies around fourth path widths to the north of that given by Occult and around 50 seconds later. The nominal path still does not actually make landfall at any point but passes very close to Stewart Island at 11:27:15 UT and the southern tip of Tasmania at 11:30:15 UT. The path also passes very close to the southern tip of Western Australia in bright twilight at 11:34 UT.

While the path does not appear to make landfall, the error margin on this calculation certainly includes Invercargill and much of Southland at 11:27 UT while Hobart is a bit more of a stretch at 11:30 UT.

Calculation Source

This prediction update has been computed by Steve Preston of Medina, Washington (state) in the United States based on astrometry from Ron Stone of the US Naval Observatory - Flagstaff Station, USA and Raoul Behrend of the Observatoire de Geneve supplemented with data from the AstDys database. The Hipparcos position of the target star has been used.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at
http://www.oz.net/~stevepr/Asteroids/asteroid.htm

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY:

The Occultation Path: Data for the target star: Data for the minor planet:

IMPORTANT NOTE!

Astrometric updates such as these should not be taken as definitive, but rather only as an indication of where the true track may lie relative to the original predicted track. Observers must bear in mind that later astrometry, in which the target star is measured in the same field as the asteroid, may still reveal substantial changes to the predicted track and time of the event. For this reason it is most important that observers far from the predicted track still monitor the event.

Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations] [Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details] [Timing Details] [Reporting Details] [Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]


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