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THE UPDATED PATH
(Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate the time for your location)
On 2004 Jul 29 UT, the 30 km diameter asteroid (1832) Mrkos will occult a 8.4 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.3 mag to 16.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC, Hipparcos .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
110 56 14 -40 0 0 17 10 52 0 55 -68 111 14 47 110 37 34 112 58 52 ... .. ..
112 44 42 -39 0 0 17 10 52 2 54 -68 113 2 23 112 26 55 114 41 51 110 43 18
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
113 0 0 -38 51 13 17 10 53 2 54 -68 -39 1 23 -38 41 4 -39 59 22 -37 42 51
114 0 0 -38 16 0 17 10 53 3 53 -68 -38 26 16 -38 5 45 -39 24 50 -37 6 56
115 0 0 -37 39 31 17 10 53 4 53 -69 -37 49 53 -37 29 9 -38 49 2 -36 29 44
116 0 0 -37 1 43 17 10 54 5 52 -69 -37 12 11 -36 51 15 -38 11 58 -35 51 13
117 0 0 -36 22 35 17 10 55 6 51 -69 -36 33 9 -36 11 59 -37 33 34 -35 11 19
118 0 0 -35 42 3 17 10 56 7 51 -69 -35 52 45 -35 31 21 -36 53 48 -34 30 1
119 0 0 -35 0 6 17 10 57 9 50 -69 -35 10 55 -34 49 17 -36 12 39 -33 47 16
120 0 0 -34 16 41 17 10 58 10 50 -69 -34 27 37 -34 5 45 -35 30 2 -33 3 2
121 0 0 -33 31 46 17 10 59 11 49 -69 -33 42 50 -33 20 43 -34 45 58 -32 17 16
122 0 0 -32 45 19 17 11 1 12 49 -68 -32 56 30 -32 34 7 -34 0 22 -31 29 57
123 0 0 -31 57 17 17 11 3 13 48 -68 -32 8 36 -31 45 57 -33 13 12 -30 41 1
124 0 0 -31 7 37 17 11 4 14 48 -68 -31 19 4 -30 56 9 -32 24 26 -29 50 27
125 0 0 -30 16 17 17 11 7 15 47 -67 -30 27 52 -30 4 41 -31 34 1 -28 58 11
126 0 0 -29 23 15 17 11 9 17 47 -67 -29 34 59 -29 11 31 -30 41 56 -28 4 11
127 0 0 -28 28 29 17 11 12 18 46 -67 -28 40 21 -28 16 35 -29 48 7 -27 8 26
128 0 0 -27 31 55 17 11 15 19 46 -66 -27 43 57 -27 19 53 -28 52 33 -26 10 53
129 0 0 -26 33 33 17 11 18 21 45 -65 -26 45 43 -26 21 22 -27 55 11 -25 11 29
130 0 0 -25 33 20 17 11 21 22 45 -65 -25 45 39 -25 20 59 -26 55 59 -24 10 14
131 0 0 -24 31 13 17 11 25 23 44 -64 -24 43 42 -24 18 44 -25 54 55 -23 7 4
132 0 0 -23 27 12 17 11 29 25 44 -63 -23 39 51 -23 14 33 -24 51 58 -22 1 59
133 0 0 -22 21 16 17 11 33 26 44 -62 -22 34 4 -22 8 27 -23 47 5 -20 54 57
134 0 0 -21 13 22 17 11 38 28 43 -61 -21 26 19 -21 0 23 -22 40 16 -19 45 57
135 0 0 -20 3 30 17 11 43 29 43 -60 -20 16 37 -19 50 21 -21 31 29 -18 34 58
136 0 0 -18 51 39 17 11 48 31 43 -59 -19 4 56 -18 38 21 -20 20 44 -17 22 0
137 0 0 -17 37 50 17 11 54 32 43 -58 -17 51 17 -17 24 22 -19 8 1 -16 7 4
138 0 0 -16 22 3 17 12 0 34 42 -57 -16 35 40 -16 8 25 -17 53 20 -14 50 10
139 0 0 -15 4 18 17 12 7 35 42 -56 -15 18 5 -14 50 30 -16 36 41 -13 31 18
140 0 0 -13 44 38 17 12 14 37 42 -55 -13 58 35 -13 30 40 -15 18 6 -12 10 31
141 0 0 -12 23 4 17 12 21 39 42 -53 -12 37 11 -12 8 57 -13 57 37 -10 47 52
142 0 0 -10 59 39 17 12 29 40 42 -52 -11 13 56 -10 45 23 -12 35 16 - 9 23 23
143 0 0 - 9 34 28 17 12 37 42 42 -51 - 9 48 53 - 9 20 2 -11 11 7 - 7 57 8
144 0 0 - 8 7 34 17 12 45 44 42 -49 - 8 22 8 - 7 52 58 - 9 45 13 - 6 29 12
145 0 0 - 6 39 2 17 12 54 46 42 -48 - 6 53 45 - 6 24 18 - 8 17 39 - 4 59 41
146 0 0 - 5 8 58 17 13 3 48 42 -46 - 5 23 50 - 4 54 6 - 6 48 32 - 3 28 41
147 0 0 - 3 37 30 17 13 13 49 42 -45 - 3 52 30 - 3 22 30 - 5 17 56 - 1 56 20
148 0 0 - 2 4 45 17 13 23 51 42 -43 - 2 19 52 - 1 49 38 - 3 46 1 - 0 22 45
149 0 0 - 0 30 52 17 13 34 53 43 -42 - 0 46 6 - 0 15 38 - 2 12 54 1 11 54
150 0 0 1 4 0 17 13 44 55 43 -40 0 48 40 1 19 21 - 0 38 43 2 47 29
151 0 0 2 39 41 17 13 55 57 44 -38 2 24 15 2 55 7 0 56 21 4 23 47
152 0 0 4 16 0 17 14 7 59 44 -37 4 0 30 4 31 31 2 32 8 6 0 38
153 0 0 5 52 46 17 14 18 61 45 -35 5 37 12 6 8 21 4 8 27 7 37 51
154 0 0 7 29 47 17 14 30 62 46 -33 7 14 10 7 45 26 5 45 6 9 15 14
155 0 0 9 6 52 17 14 42 64 47 -32 8 51 12 9 22 33 7 21 55 10 52 34
156 0 0 10 43 47 17 14 55 66 48 -30 10 28 6 10 59 30 8 58 40 12 29 39
157 0 0 12 20 22 17 15 7 68 50 -28 12 4 40 12 36 4 10 35 10 14 6 17
158 0 0 13 56 23 17 15 19 70 52 -27 13 40 41 14 12 5 12 11 13 15 42 15
159 0 0 15 31 39 17 15 32 71 54 -25 15 15 58 15 47 20 13 46 37 17 17 22
160 0 0 17 5 58 17 15 44 73 56 -23 16 50 20 17 21 37 15 21 10 18 51 27
161 0 0 18 39 11 17 15 57 75 59 -22 18 23 36 18 54 47 16 54 42 20 24 19
162 0 0 20 11 7 17 16 9 76 63 -20 19 55 35 20 26 39 18 27 3 21 55 49
163 0 0 21 41 36 17 16 22 78 67 -19 21 26 9 21 57 4 19 58 3 23 25 46
164 0 0 23 10 31 17 16 34 79 73 -17 22 55 9 23 25 53 21 27 33 24 54 4
165 0 0 24 37 43 17 16 46 81 80 -15 24 22 27 24 52 59 22 55 25 26 20 35
166 0 0 26 3 6 17 16 58 82 89 -14 25 47 57 26 18 15 24 21 32 27 45 12
167 0 0 27 26 34 17 17 10 82 101 -12 27 11 33 27 41 37 25 45 49 29 7 51
168 0 0 28 48 4 17 17 21 83 114 -11 28 33 10 29 2 58 27 8 10 30 28 27
169 0 0 30 7 30 17 17 32 83 127 -10 29 52 44 30 22 16 28 28 32 31 46 57
170 0 0 31 24 50 17 17 43 83 141 -8 31 10 13 31 39 27 29 46 49 33 3 19
171 0 0 32 40 2 17 17 54 82 153 -7 32 25 34 32 54 30 31 3 2 34 17 30
172 0 0 33 53 5 17 18 4 81 162 -5 33 38 46 34 7 24 32 17 6 35 29 29
173 0 0 35 3 58 17 18 14 80 170 -4 34 49 49 35 18 7 33 29 3 36 39 17
174 0 0 36 12 40 17 18 24 79 176 -3 35 58 41 36 26 40 34 38 50 37 46 54
175 0 0 37 19 14 17 18 34 78 181 -2 37 5 24 37 33 4 35 46 29 38 52 21
176 0 0 38 23 39 17 18 43 77 186 0 38 10 0 38 37 19 36 52 1 .. .. ..
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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