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Updated: 2006 FEB 03, 23:43 UT
Event Rank : 85
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Feb 16 UT, the 62 km diameter asteroid (172) Baucis will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path across eastern Australia from Cape York to the Eyre Peninsula. A significant path shift could see the shadow pass over Adelaide or Cairns.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
141 52 4 - 9 50 55 13 28 57 15 108 -61 142 49 57 -10 5 33 140 50 31 - 9 34 52 143 55 29 -10 21 35 139 30 38 - 9 13 16
142 8 4 -10 29 54 13 29 5 16 108 -60 143 4 37 -10 44 0 141 8 9 -10 14 29 144 8 50 -10 59 30 139 50 49 - 9 53 53
142 22 23 -11 8 17 13 29 13 16 108 -60 143 17 47 -11 21 56 141 23 54 -10 53 27 144 20 51 -11 36 58 140 8 45 -10 33 42
142 35 11 -11 46 9 13 29 21 17 108 -60 143 29 34 -11 59 23 141 37 56 -11 31 48 144 31 37 -12 14 0 140 24 39 -11 12 48
142 46 33 -12 23 31 13 29 30 17 108 -59 143 40 2 -12 36 23 141 50 23 -12 9 36 144 41 11 -12 50 38 140 38 43 -11 51 15
142 56 35 -13 0 27 13 29 38 18 107 -59 143 49 16 -13 12 59 142 1 21 -12 46 55 144 49 38 -13 26 54 140 51 6 -12 29 7
143 5 21 -13 36 58 13 29 46 18 107 -59 143 57 21 -13 49 12 142 10 58 -13 23 46 144 57 1 -14 2 49 141 1 57 -13 6 29
143 12 57 -14 13 5 13 29 54 18 107 -58 144 4 19 -14 25 4 142 19 17 -14 0 12 145 3 22 -14 38 25 141 11 20 -13 43 21
143 19 24 -14 48 51 13 30 3 19 107 -58 144 10 14 -15 0 36 142 26 22 -14 36 14 145 8 44 -15 13 43 141 19 22 -14 19 46
143 24 46 -15 24 17 13 30 11 19 107 -57 144 15 7 -15 35 50 142 32 18 -15 11 54 145 13 9 -15 48 43 141 26 8 -14 55 47
143 29 5 -15 59 24 13 30 19 19 106 -57 144 19 2 -16 10 45 142 37 7 -15 47 14 145 16 38 -16 23 27 141 31 40 -15 31 25
143 32 24 -16 34 12 13 30 27 19 106 -57 144 21 59 -16 45 24 142 40 51 -16 22 14 145 19 14 -16 57 56 141 36 2 -16 6 41
143 34 44 -17 8 44 13 30 36 20 106 -56 144 24 1 -17 19 47 142 43 34 -16 56 55 145 20 57 -17 32 9 141 39 17 -16 41 36
143 36 8 -17 42 59 13 30 44 20 106 -56 144 25 9 -17 53 54 142 45 16 -17 31 19 145 21 50 -18 6 9 141 41 26 -17 16 13
143 36 35 -18 16 58 13 30 52 20 106 -55 144 25 23 -18 27 47 142 45 59 -18 5 26 145 21 51 -18 39 55 141 42 33 -17 50 31
143 36 8 -18 50 43 13 31 0 20 105 -55 144 24 45 -19 1 26 142 45 45 -18 39 18 145 21 3 -19 13 28 141 42 38 -18 24 32
143 34 46 -19 24 13 13 31 9 20 105 -54 144 23 16 -19 34 52 142 44 34 -19 12 54 145 19 26 -19 46 48 141 41 43 -18 58 16
143 32 32 -19 57 30 13 31 17 20 105 -54 144 20 55 -20 8 4 142 42 27 -19 46 15 145 17 0 -20 19 57 141 39 48 -19 31 43
143 29 25 -20 30 33 13 31 25 21 105 -53 144 17 44 -20 41 4 142 39 25 -20 19 22 145 13 46 -20 52 54 141 36 55 -20 4 56
143 25 25 -21 3 23 13 31 33 21 105 -53 144 13 43 -21 13 52 142 35 29 -20 52 15 145 9 43 -21 25 39 141 33 5 -20 37 53
143 20 33 -21 36 1 13 31 42 21 104 -52 144 8 51 -21 46 28 142 30 38 -21 24 54 145 4 53 -21 58 13 141 28 17 -21 10 36
143 14 49 -22 8 26 13 31 50 21 104 -52 144 3 9 -22 18 52 142 24 52 -21 57 21 144 59 14 -22 30 36 141 22 31 -21 43 4
143 8 13 -22 40 39 13 31 58 21 104 -51 143 56 37 -22 51 5 142 18 13 -22 29 35 144 52 47 -23 2 49 141 15 49 -22 15 19
143 0 44 -23 12 41 13 32 6 21 104 -51 143 49 14 -23 23 7 142 10 39 -23 1 36 144 45 32 -23 34 51 141 8 9 -22 47 20
142 52 23 -23 44 30 13 32 15 21 104 -50 143 41 0 -23 54 57 142 2 10 -23 33 24 144 37 27 -24 6 43 140 59 32 -23 19 7
142 43 8 -24 16 8 13 32 23 21 104 -50 143 31 55 -24 26 37 141 52 46 -24 5 0 144 28 33 -24 38 25 140 49 56 -23 50 41
142 33 0 -24 47 34 13 32 31 21 103 -49 143 21 57 -24 58 6 141 42 26 -24 36 24 144 18 49 -25 9 57 140 39 22 -24 22 1
142 21 57 -25 18 49 13 32 39 21 103 -49 143 11 7 -25 29 24 141 31 9 -25 7 35 144 8 15 -25 41 18 140 27 49 -24 53 8
142 9 58 -25 49 53 13 32 48 21 103 -48 142 59 24 -26 0 31 141 18 55 -25 38 34 143 56 48 -26 12 30 140 15 15 -25 24 2
141 57 3 -26 20 44 13 32 56 21 103 -48 142 46 45 -26 31 27 141 5 42 -26 9 21 143 44 29 -26 43 31 140 1 40 -25 54 42
141 43 10 -26 51 24 13 33 4 21 103 -47 142 33 12 -27 2 13 140 51 30 -26 39 55 143 31 17 -27 14 23 139 47 2 -26 25 8
141 28 18 -27 21 52 13 33 12 21 103 -46 142 18 41 -27 32 47 140 36 16 -27 10 17 143 17 10 -27 45 4 139 31 20 -26 55 21
141 12 26 -27 52 8 13 33 21 21 103 -46 142 3 11 -28 3 10 140 19 59 -27 40 25 143 2 6 -28 15 34 139 14 31 -27 25 19
140 55 32 -28 22 12 13 33 29 21 103 -45 141 46 42 -28 33 21 140 2 38 -28 10 20 142 46 6 -28 45 54 138 56 35 -27 55 3
140 37 34 -28 52 2 13 33 37 21 103 -45 141 29 12 -29 3 20 139 44 11 -28 40 1 142 29 6 -29 16 3 138 37 30 -28 24 32
140 18 30 -29 21 40 13 33 46 20 102 -44 141 10 38 -29 33 8 139 24 35 -29 9 28 142 11 5 -29 46 1 138 17 12 -28 53 45
139 58 18 -29 51 4 13 33 54 20 102 -44 140 50 58 -30 2 42 139 3 48 -29 38 41 141 52 2 -30 15 47 137 55 39 -29 22 41
139 36 56 -30 20 14 13 34 2 20 102 -43 140 30 11 -30 32 4 138 41 48 -30 7 38 141 31 53 -30 45 21 137 32 49 -29 51 21
139 14 21 -30 49 9 13 34 10 20 102 -43 140 8 14 -31 1 12 138 18 32 -30 36 19 141 10 38 -31 14 43 137 8 38 -30 19 43
138 50 30 -31 17 49 13 34 19 20 102 -42 139 45 3 -31 30 6 137 53 56 -31 4 43 140 48 13 -31 43 52 136 43 3 -30 47 46
138 25 19 -31 46 12 13 34 27 19 102 -41 139 20 37 -31 58 44 137 27 58 -31 32 50 140 24 35 -32 12 47 136 15 59 -31 15 29
137 58 47 -32 14 19 13 34 35 19 102 -41 138 54 52 -32 27 7 137 0 32 -32 0 37 139 59 42 -32 41 28 135 47 23 -31 42 51
137 30 47 -32 42 6 13 34 43 19 102 -40 138 27 44 -32 55 13 136 31 36 -32 28 4 139 33 31 -33 9 53 135 17 10 -32 9 50
137 1 17 -33 9 34 13 34 52 19 102 -40 137 59 10 -33 23 1 136 1 4 -32 55 10 139 5 57 -33 38 3 134 45 13 -32 36 25
136 30 11 -33 36 41 13 35 0 18 103 -39 137 29 5 -33 50 30 135 28 50 -33 21 53 138 36 58 -34 5 55 134 11 27 -33 2 33
135 57 24 -34 3 26 13 35 8 18 103 -39 136 57 24 -34 17 39 134 54 50 -33 48 10 138 6 28 -34 33 29 133 35 44 -33 28 13
135 22 51 -34 29 46 13 35 16 18 103 -38 136 24 2 -34 44 25 134 18 56 -34 14 0 137 34 23 -35 0 43 132 57 57 -33 53 20
134 46 23 -34 55 39 13 35 25 17 103 -37 135 48 53 -35 10 47 133 41 0 -34 39 20 137 0 37 -35 27 36 132 17 56 -34 17 53
134 7 55 -35 21 3 13 35 33 17 103 -37 135 11 51 -35 36 43 133 0 53 -35 4 7 136 25 6 -35 54 5 131 35 31 -34 41 47
133 27 17 -35 45 55 13 35 41 17 103 -36 134 32 48 -36 2 11 132 18 27 -35 28 18 135 47 41 -36 20 10 130 50 28 -35 4 58
132 44 20 -36 10 12 13 35 49 16 104 -35 133 51 34 -36 27 7 131 33 28 -35 51 48 135 8 17 -36 45 47 130 2 32 -35 27 21
131 58 51 -36 33 49 13 35 58 16 104 -35 133 8 2 -36 51 28 130 45 43 -36 14 33 134 26 45 -37 10 53 129 11 26 -35 48 48
131 10 38 -36 56 41 13 36 6 15 104 -34 132 21 59 -37 15 10 129 54 55 -36 36 26 133 42 54 -37 35 26 128 16 46 -36 9 11
130 19 25 -37 18 44 13 36 14 15 105 -33 131 33 12 -37 38 10 129 0 45 -36 57 20 132 56 35 -37 59 22 127 18 3 -36 28 19
129 24 52 -37 39 49 13 36 22 14 105 -33 130 41 26 -38 0 20 128 2 47 -37 17 5 132 7 36 -38 22 36 126 14 41 -36 45 58
128 26 35 -37 59 48 13 36 31 13 105 -32 129 46 23 -38 21 34 127 0 30 -37 35 30 131 15 40 -38 45 3 125 5 50 -37 1 48
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