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Updated: 2006 AUG 05, 03:02 UT
Event Rank : 33
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Sep 01 UT, the 46 km diameter asteroid (493) Griseldis will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Corona Australis for observers along a path which crosses Whakatane and Napier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.7 mag to 15.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
177 57 53 -46 17 1 9 1 51 76 291 -35 177 39 37 -46 17 49 178 16 8 -46 16 11 176 26 39 -46 20 33 179 29 14 -46 12 22
177 43 6 -44 52 22 9 2 10 77 286 -36 177 25 17 -44 53 8 178 0 54 -44 51 33 176 14 8 -44 55 47 179 12 12 -44 47 52
177 29 24 -43 27 48 9 2 30 77 280 -36 177 12 1 -43 28 33 177 46 48 -43 27 1 176 2 32 -43 31 7 178 56 25 -43 23 26
177 16 42 -42 3 18 9 2 49 78 273 -37 176 59 43 -42 4 2 177 33 43 -42 2 32 175 51 47 -42 6 32 178 41 47 -41 59 2
177 4 56 -40 38 48 9 3 8 78 267 -37 176 48 18 -40 39 31 177 21 34 -40 38 3 175 41 49 -40 41 58 178 28 12 -40 34 38
176 54 0 -39 14 16 9 3 28 78 260 -38 176 37 42 -39 14 58 177 10 18 -39 13 31 175 32 34 -39 17 22 178 15 36 -39 10 10
176 43 51 -37 49 37 9 3 47 78 254 -38 176 27 52 -37 50 19 176 59 50 -37 48 54 175 24 0 -37 52 40 178 3 53 -37 45 36
176 34 26 -36 24 51 9 4 6 77 248 -39 176 18 45 -36 25 31 176 50 8 -36 24 8 175 16 3 -36 27 51 177 53 0 -36 20 53
176 25 43 -34 59 52 9 4 26 77 242 -39 176 10 17 -35 0 32 176 41 8 -34 59 10 175 8 41 -35 2 50 177 42 55 -34 55 57
176 17 38 -33 34 39 9 4 45 76 237 -40 176 2 28 -33 35 18 176 32 48 -33 33 56 175 1 53 -33 37 36 177 33 34 -33 30 46
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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