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Updated: 2006 SEP 16, 06:02 UT
Event Rank : 83
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Oct 15 UT, the 70 km diameter asteroid (547) Praxedis will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a significant uncertainty path across central New Zealand. The path is predicted to pass directly over Wellington but with a significant possibility of a path shift as far south as Christchurch or north up to New Plymouth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.8 mag to 14.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
176 45 19 -44 0 0 13 49 45 19 64 -32 175 7 43 178 17 33 172 55 16 -179 52 34
175 48 48 -43 0 0 13 49 37 19 65 -33 174 9 11 177 22 37 171 53 15 179 14 1
174 46 57 -42 0 0 13 49 29 19 66 -34 173 4 37 176 22 52 170 44 2 178 16 18
173 39 8 -41 0 0 13 49 21 18 67 -36 171 53 16 175 17 48 169 26 27 177 13 56
172 24 35 -40 0 0 13 49 12 18 68 -37 170 34 2 174 6 50 167 58 46 176 6 24
171 2 8 -39 0 0 13 49 3 17 70 -38 169 5 19 172 49 4 166 18 19 174 53 6
169 30 10 -38 0 0 13 48 54 16 71 -40 167 24 43 171 23 20 164 20 30 173 33 11
167 46 10 -37 0 0 13 48 44 15 72 -41 165 28 18 169 47 56 161 56 21 172 5 27
165 46 6 -36 0 0 13 48 35 14 74 -43 163 8 43 168 0 13 158 42 43 170 28 15
164 0 0 -35 14 32 13 48 27 13 75 -44 -36 20 37 -34 12 16 -37 50 36 -32 58 18
163 0 0 -34 51 46 13 48 23 12 76 -45 -35 56 39 -33 50 29 -37 24 47 -32 37 34
162 0 0 -34 31 0 13 48 19 11 77 -45 -35 34 52 -33 30 36 -37 1 21 -32 18 38
161 0 0 -34 12 13 13 48 16 11 77 -46 -35 15 9 -33 12 36 -36 40 12 -32 1 27
160 0 0 -33 55 21 13 48 13 10 78 -46 -34 57 28 -32 56 25 -36 21 16 -31 46 0
159 0 0 -33 40 20 13 48 10 9 79 -47 -34 41 45 -32 42 0 -36 4 28 -31 32 15
158 0 0 -33 27 8 13 48 7 8 79 -47 -34 27 57 -32 29 20 -35 49 43 -31 20 9
157 0 0 -33 15 44 13 48 5 7 80 -48 -34 16 0 -32 18 23 -35 36 58 -31 9 41
156 0 0 -33 6 4 13 48 3 7 80 -48 -34 5 55 -32 9 7 -35 26 12 .. .. ..
155 0 0 -32 58 9 13 48 1 6 81 -48 -33 57 37 -32 1 30 -35 17 21 .. .. ..
154 0 0 -32 51 56 13 47 59 5 82 -48 -33 51 7 -31 55 33 -35 10 23 .. .. ..
153 0 0 -32 47 25 13 47 58 4 82 -49 -33 46 22 -31 51 13 -35 5 18 .. .. ..
152 0 0 -32 44 34 13 47 57 3 83 -49 -33 43 21 -31 48 31 -35 2 4 .. .. ..
151 0 0 -32 43 23 13 47 56 3 83 -49 -33 42 5 .. .. .. -35 0 39 .. .. ..
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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