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Updated: 2006 OCT 29, 02:24 UT
Event Rank : 18
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2006 Nov 27 UT, the 36 km diameter asteroid (3024) Hainan will occult a 10.3 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a narrow high uncertainty path across Australia beginning near Ceduna in South Australia, and moving across Australia ending near Derby in Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.6 mag to 15.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
136 52 33 -38 38 27 13 21 20 38 311 -28 136 38 33 -38 40 24 137 6 35 -38 36 30 134 57 18 -38 54 44 138 49 59 -38 22 21
135 26 46 -36 54 33 13 21 48 40 312 -29 135 13 13 -36 56 28 135 40 20 -36 52 38 133 35 8 -37 10 31 137 20 20 -36 38 45
134 8 54 -35 13 8 13 22 16 42 312 -30 133 55 45 -35 15 0 134 22 5 -35 11 15 132 20 25 -35 28 48 135 59 8 -34 57 37
132 57 41 -33 33 55 13 22 44 44 312 -31 132 44 52 -33 35 46 133 10 32 -33 32 4 131 11 58 -33 49 19 134 45 1 -33 18 40
131 52 9 -31 56 42 13 23 12 45 312 -32 131 39 37 -31 58 31 132 4 41 -31 54 53 130 8 51 -32 11 52 133 36 54 -31 41 41
130 51 28 -30 21 17 13 23 40 47 312 -33 130 39 13 -30 23 4 131 3 45 -30 19 29 129 10 21 -30 36 13 132 33 57 -30 6 29
129 55 2 -28 47 29 13 24 8 48 311 -34 129 43 1 -28 49 15 130 7 4 -28 45 43 128 15 51 -29 2 13 131 35 29 -28 32 53
129 2 18 -27 15 10 13 24 36 50 311 -35 128 50 30 -27 16 55 129 14 7 -27 13 26 127 24 51 -27 29 43 130 40 57 -27 0 45
128 12 50 -25 44 12 13 25 5 51 310 -36 128 1 13 -25 45 56 128 24 28 -25 42 29 126 36 57 -25 58 34 129 49 52 -25 29 56
127 26 17 -24 14 27 13 25 33 53 309 -37 127 14 50 -24 16 10 127 37 44 -24 12 45 125 51 48 -24 28 40 129 1 50 -24 0 20
126 42 19 -22 45 49 13 26 1 54 309 -38 126 31 2 -22 47 31 126 53 37 -22 44 8 125 9 7 -22 59 53 128 16 34 -22 31 51
126 0 42 -21 18 12 13 26 29 55 308 -39 125 49 33 -21 19 53 126 11 51 -21 16 32 124 28 39 -21 32 9 127 33 45 -21 4 21
125 21 11 -19 51 31 13 26 57 57 307 -40 125 10 10 -19 53 10 125 32 13 -19 49 51 123 50 10 -20 5 20 126 53 10 -19 37 47
124 43 35 -18 25 40 13 27 25 58 305 -41 124 32 41 -18 27 19 124 54 30 -18 24 1 123 13 30 -18 39 23 126 14 36 -18 12 2
124 7 44 -17 0 35 13 27 53 59 304 -41 123 56 56 -17 2 14 124 18 33 -16 58 57 122 38 30 -17 14 12 125 37 53 -16 47 3
123 33 30 -15 36 12 13 28 22 60 303 -42 123 22 47 -15 37 50 123 44 13 -15 34 35 122 5 1 -15 49 44 125 2 52 -15 22 46
123 0 43 -14 12 27 13 28 50 61 301 -43 122 50 6 -14 14 4 123 11 22 -14 10 50 121 32 55 -14 25 54 124 29 24 -13 59 5
122 29 19 -12 49 16 13 29 18 62 299 -44 122 18 46 -12 50 53 122 39 53 -12 47 40 121 2 7 -13 2 38 123 57 22 -12 35 58
121 59 10 -11 26 35 13 29 46 63 297 -44 121 48 41 -11 28 11 122 9 40 -11 25 0 120 32 31 -11 39 54 123 26 41 -11 13 21
121 30 12 -10 4 22 13 30 14 64 295 -45 121 19 46 -10 5 57 121 40 38 -10 2 46 120 4 1 -10 17 37 122 57 14 - 9 51 11
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