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Updated: 2007 JAN 13, 19:14 UT
Event Rank : 20
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Feb 16 UT, the 30 km diameter asteroid (3325) TARDIS will occult a 4.6 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a high uncertainty path beginning in South Australia, passing east of Adelaide before moving into Victoria passing close to Ballarat and Geelong. The path then moves into Tasmania passing north of Hobart. The wide uncertainty area includes almost all of Tasmania, as well as Melbourne and Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 12.8 mag to 17.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Ron Stone, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
124 4 56 -23 45 26 16 16 2 7 112 -54 124 53 36 -23 58 11 123 11 0 -23 30 20 129 12 22 -24 52 30 ... .. .. .. .. ..
127 29 23 -25 46 48 16 16 7 11 111 -51 128 4 46 -25 53 30 126 52 22 -25 39 21 131 34 25 -26 25 6 121 16 6 -24 10 46
129 59 38 -27 23 48 16 16 11 14 110 -49 130 29 35 -27 27 57 129 28 47 -27 19 14 133 34 20 -27 47 38 125 24 57 -26 32 47
132 3 53 -28 49 0 16 16 16 16 108 -47 132 30 45 -28 51 40 131 36 24 -28 46 4 135 20 0 -29 3 39 128 8 55 -28 16 44
133 52 5 -30 6 54 16 16 21 18 107 -45 134 16 57 -30 8 33 133 26 46 -30 5 3 136 55 33 -30 14 59 130 19 56 -29 45 48
135 29 12 -31 19 42 16 16 26 19 106 -44 135 52 39 -31 20 35 135 5 23 -31 18 38 138 23 28 -31 22 47 132 12 5 -31 6 18
136 58 4 -32 28 41 16 16 30 21 105 -42 137 20 28 -32 28 59 136 35 21 -32 28 15 139 45 23 -32 27 46 133 51 38 -32 21 2
138 20 31 -33 34 42 16 16 35 22 104 -41 138 42 7 -33 34 32 137 58 40 -33 34 46 141 2 27 -33 30 28 135 22 2 -33 31 34
139 37 50 -34 38 20 16 16 40 24 103 -39 139 58 48 -34 37 45 139 16 38 -34 38 48 142 15 31 -34 31 17 136 45 26 -34 38 54
140 50 55 -35 39 58 16 16 44 25 102 -38 141 11 24 -35 39 3 140 30 14 -35 40 48 143 25 13 -35 30 28 138 3 16 -35 43 39
142 0 28 -36 39 57 16 16 49 26 101 -37 142 20 32 -36 38 44 141 40 11 -36 41 5 144 32 2 -36 28 17 139 16 34 -36 46 19
143 6 59 -37 38 31 16 16 54 27 100 -35 143 26 45 -37 37 1 142 47 3 -37 39 56 145 36 23 -37 24 55 140 26 4 -37 47 14
144 10 56 -38 35 51 16 16 59 28 99 -34 144 30 26 -38 34 7 143 51 15 -38 37 31 146 38 35 -38 20 30 141 32 22 -38 46 41
145 12 37 -39 32 8 16 17 3 29 98 -33 145 31 55 -39 30 11 144 53 9 -39 34 1 147 38 55 -39 15 10 142 35 54 -39 44 51
146 12 21 -40 27 29 16 17 8 30 97 -32 146 31 30 -40 25 20 145 53 2 -40 29 35 148 37 37 -40 9 1 143 37 4 -40 41 56
147 10 21 -41 22 1 16 17 13 31 95 -31 147 29 24 -41 19 40 146 51 9 -41 24 18 149 34 52 -41 2 10 144 36 8 -41 38 4
148 6 50 -42 15 50 16 17 17 32 94 -29 148 25 48 -42 13 19 147 47 43 -42 18 18 150 30 50 -41 54 40 145 33 22 -42 33 21
149 1 59 -43 9 0 16 17 22 32 93 -28 149 20 54 -43 6 19 148 42 55 -43 11 38 151 25 41 -42 46 35 146 29 0 -43 27 55
149 55 57 -44 1 37 16 17 27 33 92 -27 150 14 51 -43 58 46 149 36 54 -44 4 24 152 19 32 -43 38 0 147 23 10 -44 21 51
150 48 51 -44 53 43 16 17 32 34 91 -26 151 7 45 -44 50 43 150 29 48 -44 56 40 153 12 32 -44 28 58 148 16 5 -45 15 12
151 40 50 -45 45 22 16 17 36 34 90 -25 151 59 46 -45 42 13 151 21 44 -45 48 28 154 4 45 -45 19 31 149 7 50 -46 8 3
152 31 59 -46 36 38 16 17 41 35 88 -24 152 50 58 -46 33 20 152 12 50 -46 39 52 154 56 19 -46 9 43 149 58 35 -47 0 28
153 22 25 -47 27 32 16 17 46 35 87 -23 153 41 29 -47 24 7 153 3 12 -47 30 55 155 47 19 -46 59 35 150 48 26 -47 52 29
154 12 14 -48 18 8 16 17 50 36 86 -22 154 31 23 -48 14 35 153 52 55 -48 21 39 156 37 51 -47 49 10 151 37 28 -48 44 10
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