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Updated: 2007 FEB 06, 16:17 UT
Event Rank : 25
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Mar 06 UT, the 22 km diameter asteroid (1231) Auricula will occult a 7.5 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across north-eastern Australia, crossing the Cape York Peninsula and grazing the coast from about Townsville to Rockhampton at low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 9.2 mag to 16.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
... .. .. -26 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. 153 37 54 ... .. ..
153 21 37 -25 0 0 13 19 42 1 309 -58 153 11 15 153 31 59 152 17 17 154 26 40
152 2 7 -24 0 0 13 19 42 3 310 -59 151 51 59 152 12 16 150 59 8 153 5 45
150 44 59 -23 0 0 13 19 41 4 310 -59 150 35 3 150 54 56 149 43 14 151 47 20
149 30 1 -22 0 0 13 19 39 6 311 -59 149 20 16 149 39 47 148 29 25 150 31 11
148 17 3 -21 0 0 13 19 38 8 311 -60 148 7 28 148 26 39 147 17 30 149 17 7
147 5 55 -20 0 0 13 19 36 9 311 -60 146 56 30 147 15 21 146 7 20 148 5 0
145 56 29 -19 0 0 13 19 33 10 312 -60 145 47 12 146 5 46 144 58 46 146 54 38
144 48 37 -18 0 0 13 19 30 12 312 -60 144 39 28 144 57 46 143 51 43 145 45 54
143 42 11 -17 0 0 13 19 27 13 313 -60 143 33 9 143 51 12 142 46 2 144 38 41
142 37 4 -16 0 0 13 19 23 15 313 -60 142 28 10 142 45 59 141 41 37 143 32 52
141 33 12 -15 0 0 13 19 20 16 313 -60 141 24 23 141 42 0 140 38 23 142 28 19
140 30 27 -14 0 0 13 19 15 18 313 -60 140 21 45 140 39 10 139 36 14 141 24 58
139 28 45 -13 0 0 13 19 11 19 314 -60 139 20 8 139 37 23 138 35 4 140 22 42
138 28 1 -12 0 0 13 19 6 21 314 -60 138 19 28 138 36 33 137 34 50 139 21 27
137 28 9 -11 0 0 13 19 1 22 314 -60 137 19 41 137 36 38 136 35 25 138 21 7
136 29 7 -10 0 0 13 18 56 23 314 -59 136 20 43 136 37 31 135 36 47 137 21 39
135 30 48 - 9 0 0 13 18 50 25 314 -59 135 22 28 135 39 9 134 38 51 136 22 57
134 33 10 - 8 0 0 13 18 44 26 315 -58 134 24 53 134 41 27 133 41 33 135 24 57
133 36 8 - 7 0 0 13 18 38 28 315 -58 133 27 54 133 44 23 132 44 50 134 27 37
132 39 40 - 6 0 0 13 18 31 29 315 -57 132 31 28 132 47 51 131 48 37 133 30 51
131 43 41 - 5 0 0 13 18 24 30 315 -57 131 35 32 131 51 50 130 52 52 132 34 37
130 48 7 - 4 0 0 13 18 17 32 315 -56 130 40 0 130 56 15 129 57 31 131 38 51
129 52 57 - 3 0 0 13 18 10 33 315 -56 129 44 52 130 1 2 129 2 31 130 43 29
128 58 6 - 2 0 0 13 18 2 34 315 -55 128 50 2 129 6 10 128 7 48 129 48 29
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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