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Updated: 2007 JUL 08, 16:42 UT
Event Rank : 13
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Aug 01 UT, the 29 km diameter asteroid (1444) Pannonia will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a high uncertainty path beginning over Tasmania, passing close to Burnie. The path then passes over Melbourne, and central parts of western New South Wales and Queensland, and then finally over western parts of Papua New Guinea.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.3 mag to 13.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
148 8 40 -48 54 41 12 3 17 67 299 -49 147 56 20 -48 55 46 148 21 0 -48 53 34 145 51 7 -49 5 50 150 26 25 -48 41 17
147 38 30 -47 31 26 12 3 34 68 297 -50 147 26 29 -47 32 29 147 50 30 -47 30 22 145 24 37 -47 42 9 149 52 37 -47 18 33
147 10 42 -46 8 27 12 3 52 69 294 -51 146 58 59 -46 9 28 147 22 24 -46 7 26 145 0 13 -46 18 46 149 21 28 -45 56 2
146 45 2 -44 45 43 12 4 9 70 291 -51 146 33 36 -44 46 42 146 56 27 -44 44 43 144 37 43 -44 55 41 148 52 41 -44 33 42
146 21 18 -43 23 10 12 4 26 71 288 -52 146 10 8 -43 24 7 146 32 27 -43 22 13 144 16 54 -43 32 49 148 26 3 -43 11 32
145 59 19 -42 0 47 12 4 43 71 285 -52 145 48 23 -42 1 42 146 10 14 -41 59 51 143 57 38 -42 10 9 148 1 23 -41 49 28
145 38 55 -40 38 31 12 5 1 72 281 -53 145 28 14 -40 39 24 145 49 37 -40 37 36 143 39 47 -40 47 38 147 38 29 -40 27 30
145 20 0 -39 16 19 12 5 18 72 277 -53 145 9 31 -39 17 12 145 30 29 -39 15 26 143 23 13 -39 25 13 147 17 14 -39 5 34
145 2 26 -37 54 10 12 5 35 73 273 -53 144 52 9 -37 55 1 145 12 43 -37 53 18 143 7 50 -38 2 52 146 57 29 -37 43 39
144 46 7 -36 32 0 12 5 52 73 269 -54 144 36 1 -36 32 50 144 56 13 -36 31 9 142 53 34 -36 40 32 146 39 8 -36 21 42
144 30 57 -35 9 48 12 6 10 73 264 -54 144 21 1 -35 10 37 144 40 53 -35 8 58 142 40 19 -35 18 10 146 22 4 -34 59 40
144 16 53 -33 47 30 12 6 27 73 260 -54 144 7 6 -33 48 19 144 26 39 -33 46 41 142 28 2 -33 55 45 146 6 13 -33 37 32
144 3 49 -32 25 5 12 6 44 73 256 -55 143 54 12 -32 25 53 144 13 27 -32 24 16 142 16 38 -32 33 13 145 51 30 -32 15 15
143 51 43 -31 2 29 12 7 2 72 251 -55 143 42 14 -31 3 16 144 1 12 -31 1 41 142 6 5 -31 10 31 145 37 51 -30 52 46
143 40 31 -29 39 40 12 7 19 72 247 -55 143 31 10 -29 40 26 143 49 53 -29 38 52 141 56 21 -29 47 37 145 25 13 -29 30 2
143 30 11 -28 16 34 12 7 36 71 243 -55 143 20 57 -28 17 21 143 39 26 -28 15 47 141 47 22 -28 24 28 145 13 33 -28 7 1
143 20 41 -26 53 10 12 7 53 71 240 -55 143 11 34 -26 53 56 143 29 49 -26 52 23 141 39 7 -27 1 1 145 2 47 -26 43 40
143 11 58 -25 29 23 12 8 11 70 236 -56 143 2 57 -25 30 9 143 21 0 -25 28 36 141 31 35 -25 37 13 144 52 55 -25 19 55
143 4 2 -24 5 11 12 8 28 69 233 -56 142 55 6 -24 5 57 143 12 57 -24 4 24 141 24 43 -24 13 1 144 43 54 -23 55 44
142 56 50 -22 40 30 12 8 45 69 230 -56 142 48 0 -22 41 16 143 5 40 -22 39 44 141 18 32 -22 48 20 144 35 42 -22 31 4
142 50 22 -21 15 18 12 9 2 68 227 -56 142 41 37 -21 16 4 142 59 7 -21 14 31 141 12 59 -21 23 9 144 28 19 -21 5 50
142 44 36 -19 49 29 12 9 20 67 225 -55 142 35 56 -19 50 16 142 53 17 -19 48 42 141 8 5 -19 57 23 144 21 44 -19 39 59
142 39 34 -18 23 1 12 9 37 66 223 -55 142 30 58 -18 23 47 142 48 10 -18 22 13 141 3 49 -18 30 58 144 15 56 -18 13 27
142 35 14 -16 55 48 12 9 54 65 221 -55 142 26 41 -16 56 35 142 43 47 -16 55 0 141 0 11 -17 3 50 144 10 54 -16 46 10
142 31 36 -15 27 47 12 10 12 64 219 -55 142 23 7 -15 28 35 142 40 6 -15 26 59 140 57 12 -15 35 55 144 6 40 -15 18 3
142 28 41 -13 58 53 12 10 29 62 217 -55 142 20 15 -13 59 41 142 37 8 -13 58 4 140 54 51 -14 7 7 144 3 12 -13 49 1
142 26 30 -12 29 0 12 10 46 61 215 -54 142 18 7 -12 29 49 142 34 54 -12 28 10 140 53 9 -12 37 22 144 0 33 -12 18 59
142 25 3 -10 58 2 12 11 3 60 214 -54 142 16 42 -10 58 52 142 33 25 -10 57 11 140 52 7 -11 6 33 143 58 42 -10 47 50
142 24 23 - 9 25 53 12 11 21 59 213 -54 142 16 3 - 9 26 44 142 32 42 - 9 25 2 140 51 47 - 9 34 36 143 57 42 - 9 15 30
142 24 29 - 7 52 27 12 11 38 57 211 -53 142 16 11 - 7 53 19 142 32 48 - 7 51 34 140 52 10 - 8 1 22 143 57 35 - 7 41 49
142 25 26 - 6 17 35 12 11 55 56 210 -53 142 17 9 - 6 18 28 142 33 44 - 6 16 41 140 53 18 - 6 26 44 143 58 22 - 6 6 41
142 27 16 - 4 41 9 12 12 13 54 209 -52 142 18 59 - 4 42 4 142 35 33 - 4 40 13 140 55 14 - 4 50 34 144 0 7 - 4 29 57
142 30 1 - 3 2 59 12 12 30 53 208 -52 142 21 44 - 3 3 55 142 38 18 - 3 2 1 140 58 1 - 3 12 42 144 2 53 - 2 51 26
142 33 46 - 1 22 54 12 12 47 51 207 -51 142 25 29 - 1 23 52 142 42 4 - 1 21 54 141 1 43 - 1 32 58 144 6 45 - 1 10 57
142 38 37 0 19 19 12 13 4 50 207 -50 142 30 19 0 18 18 142 46 55 0 20 21 141 6 23 0 8 50 144 11 48 0 31 43
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