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Updated: 2007 OCT 15, 13:56 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2007 Nov 15 UT, the 106 km diameter asteroid (506) Marion will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a path between New Zealand and Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
159 27 31 -54 0 0 11 32 15 5 343 -15 158 13 30 160 42 51 157 26 46 161 31 47
159 8 34 -53 0 0 11 32 13 6 343 -16 157 56 32 160 21 48 157 11 2 161 9 22
158 52 30 -52 0 0 11 32 11 8 343 -17 157 42 19 160 3 51 156 57 57 160 50 9
158 39 9 -51 0 0 11 32 8 9 343 -17 157 30 38 159 48 44 156 47 20 160 33 52
158 28 16 -50 0 0 11 32 5 9 343 -18 157 21 20 159 36 14 156 39 0 160 20 18
158 19 43 -49 0 0 11 32 2 10 343 -19 157 14 13 159 26 11 156 32 47 160 9 16
158 13 19 -48 0 0 11 31 58 11 343 -20 157 9 10 159 18 24 156 28 34 160 0 34
158 8 57 -47 0 0 11 31 54 12 343 -21 157 6 3 159 12 46 156 26 14 159 54 5
158 6 31 -46 0 0 11 31 50 13 343 -22 157 4 45 159 9 7 156 25 39 159 49 40
158 5 52 -45 0 0 11 31 45 14 343 -23 157 5 11 159 7 23 156 26 45 159 47 12
158 6 56 -44 0 0 11 31 40 15 343 -24 157 7 15 159 7 25 156 29 27 159 46 35
158 9 39 -43 0 0 11 31 35 16 343 -24 157 10 53 159 9 11 156 33 40 159 47 42
158 13 54 -42 0 0 11 31 29 17 343 -25 157 16 0 159 12 33 156 39 19 159 50 30
158 19 39 -41 0 0 11 31 24 18 343 -26 157 22 33 159 17 29 156 46 23 159 54 54
158 26 50 -40 0 0 11 31 17 19 343 -27 157 30 29 159 23 55 156 54 46 160 0 50
158 35 24 -39 0 0 11 31 11 20 343 -28 157 39 44 159 31 47 157 4 27 160 8 15
158 45 19 -38 0 0 11 31 4 21 342 -29 157 50 17 159 41 2 157 15 24 160 17 5
158 56 31 -37 0 0 11 30 57 22 342 -30 158 2 4 159 51 39 157 27 33 160 27 18
159 8 59 -36 0 0 11 30 50 23 342 -31 158 15 4 160 3 34 157 40 54 160 38 51
159 22 41 -35 0 0 11 30 42 24 341 -32 158 29 16 160 16 45 157 55 25 160 51 44
159 37 36 -34 0 0 11 30 34 25 341 -33 158 44 38 160 31 12 158 11 4 161 5 53
159 53 41 -33 0 0 11 30 26 25 341 -34 159 1 8 160 46 53 158 27 50 161 21 18
160 10 57 -32 0 0 11 30 17 26 340 -35 159 18 47 161 3 47 158 45 42 161 37 57
160 29 23 -31 0 0 11 30 8 27 340 -36 159 37 32 161 21 52 159 4 40 161 55 49
160 48 57 -30 0 0 11 29 59 28 339 -37 159 57 24 161 41 9 159 24 44 162 14 54
161 9 40 -29 0 0 11 29 50 29 339 -38 160 18 22 162 1 36 159 45 51 162 35 12
161 31 31 -28 0 0 11 29 40 30 338 -39 160 40 26 162 23 14 160 8 4 162 56 41
161 54 30 -27 0 0 11 29 30 30 338 -40 161 3 36 162 46 2 160 31 21 163 19 23
162 18 37 -26 0 0 11 29 19 31 337 -41 161 27 53 163 10 1 160 55 44 163 43 16
162 43 54 -25 0 0 11 29 9 32 337 -42 161 53 16 163 35 11 161 21 11 164 8 23
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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