|
|
Updated: 2008 JAN 05, 20:37 UT
Event Rank : 19
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Feb 07 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (1605) Milankovitch will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across Papua New Guinea passing near Madang.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 14.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
151 26 8 -10 54 6 15 27 1 14 283 -57 150 55 30 -10 51 13 151 57 51 -10 57 11 147 39 58 -10 34 55 156 33 1 -11 27 59
150 8 20 - 9 55 5 15 27 17 16 283 -59 149 40 8 - 9 52 38 150 37 21 - 9 57 40 146 37 13 - 9 38 37 154 38 45 -10 22 25
148 59 11 - 8 57 44 15 27 32 17 283 -60 148 32 50 - 8 55 38 149 26 11 - 8 59 59 145 39 50 - 8 43 25 153 5 4 - 9 20 40
147 56 51 - 8 1 46 15 27 48 18 283 -62 147 31 57 - 7 59 55 148 22 17 - 8 3 43 144 46 59 - 7 49 10 151 44 50 - 8 21 27
147 0 4 - 7 6 54 15 28 3 19 283 -63 146 36 21 - 7 5 16 147 24 15 - 7 8 37 143 58 3 - 6 55 45 150 34 20 - 7 24 6
146 7 58 - 6 12 59 15 28 18 20 283 -64 145 45 13 - 6 11 32 146 31 7 - 6 14 31 143 12 31 - 6 3 3 149 31 19 - 6 28 12
145 19 52 - 5 19 54 15 28 34 21 283 -65 144 57 56 - 5 18 35 145 42 9 - 5 21 16 142 30 0 - 5 10 59 148 34 19 - 5 33 28
144 35 14 - 4 27 31 15 28 49 22 283 -66 144 14 0 - 4 26 20 144 56 48 - 4 28 45 141 50 11 - 4 19 30 147 42 17 - 4 39 44
143 53 41 - 3 35 46 15 29 5 23 282 -67 143 33 3 - 3 34 42 144 14 37 - 3 36 53 141 12 47 - 3 28 32 146 54 29 - 3 46 49
143 14 53 - 2 44 35 15 29 20 24 282 -68 142 54 45 - 2 43 37 143 35 16 - 2 45 36 140 37 37 - 2 38 2 146 10 21 - 2 54 39
142 38 33 - 1 53 54 15 29 35 24 282 -69 142 18 53 - 1 53 1 142 58 28 - 1 54 50 140 4 29 - 1 47 58 145 29 26 - 2 3 6
142 4 29 - 1 3 41 15 29 51 25 281 -70 141 45 12 - 1 2 52 142 23 59 - 1 4 32 139 33 13 - 0 58 17 144 51 22 - 1 12 7
141 32 28 - 0 13 52 15 30 6 26 281 -71 141 13 32 - 0 13 8 141 51 37 - 0 14 39 139 3 42 - 0 8 58 144 15 53 - 0 21 39
141 2 22 0 35 34 15 30 22 26 281 -72 140 43 45 0 36 15 141 21 12 0 34 51 138 35 48 0 40 2 143 42 45 0 28 23
140 34 3 1 24 39 15 30 37 27 280 -73 140 15 42 1 25 17 140 52 36 1 24 0 138 9 25 1 28 44 143 11 45 1 18 0
140 7 23 2 13 26 15 30 52 27 280 -74 139 49 16 2 14 1 140 25 41 2 12 49 137 44 29 2 17 9 142 42 43 2 7 15
139 42 17 3 1 55 15 31 8 28 280 -75 139 24 23 3 2 27 140 0 22 3 1 21 137 20 54 3 5 19 142 15 33 2 56 10
139 18 39 3 50 9 15 31 23 28 279 -76 139 0 57 3 50 39 139 36 33 3 49 37 136 58 37 3 53 16 141 50 6 3 44 46
138 56 26 4 38 8 15 31 39 29 279 -76 138 38 53 4 38 35 139 14 9 4 37 39 136 37 35 4 40 59 141 26 16 4 33 6
138 35 32 5 25 54 15 31 54 29 278 -77 138 18 8 5 26 19 138 53 6 5 25 27 136 17 43 5 28 30 141 3 58 5 21 10
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]