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Updated: 2008 OCT 01, 03:59 UT
Event Rank : 41
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Oct 05 UT, the 26 km diameter asteroid (614) Pia will occult a 9.7 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across Western Australia, beginning near Port Hedland, running across central Australia, grazing the south-western corner of New South Wales, then into Victoria, passing over Mildura, Shepparton, near Melbourne and leaving near Sale.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.5 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
152 45 20 -43 0 0 18 13 20 27 354 -12 152 26 54 153 3 43 151 28 18 154 1 28
151 37 26 -42 0 0 18 13 3 28 355 -13 151 19 6 151 55 42 150 20 50 152 53 5
150 29 2 -41 0 0 18 12 44 29 356 -14 150 10 48 150 47 13 149 12 46 151 44 19
149 20 2 -40 0 0 18 12 25 30 358 -15 149 1 51 149 38 9 148 4 0 150 35 2
148 10 19 -39 0 0 18 12 5 31 359 -16 147 52 10 148 28 24 146 54 25 149 25 8
146 59 46 -38 0 0 18 11 44 32 0 -18 146 41 39 147 17 50 145 43 54 148 14 31
145 48 17 -37 0 0 18 11 22 33 2 -19 145 30 8 146 6 22 144 32 19 147 3 3
144 35 42 -36 0 0 18 10 59 34 3 -20 144 17 30 144 53 49 143 19 31 145 50 37
143 21 53 -35 0 0 18 10 35 35 5 -22 143 3 37 143 40 5 142 5 22 144 37 4
142 6 41 -34 0 0 18 10 10 36 7 -23 141 48 19 142 24 59 140 49 41 143 22 15
140 49 55 -33 0 0 18 9 44 37 8 -25 140 31 24 141 8 21 139 32 17 142 6 1
139 31 23 -32 0 0 18 9 18 38 10 -26 139 12 42 139 49 59 138 12 58 140 48 10
138 10 53 -31 0 0 18 8 50 38 12 -28 137 51 57 138 29 42 136 51 28 139 28 31
136 48 8 -30 0 0 18 8 21 39 14 -29 136 28 56 137 7 13 135 27 32 138 6 49
135 22 52 -29 0 0 18 7 50 40 16 -31 135 3 20 135 42 16 134 0 49 136 42 48
133 54 44 -28 0 0 18 7 19 40 18 -33 133 34 49 134 14 31 132 30 57 135 16 11
132 23 20 -27 0 0 18 6 46 41 20 -34 132 2 56 132 43 34 130 57 28 133 46 36
130 48 11 -26 0 0 18 6 11 41 23 -36 130 27 13 131 8 58 129 19 49 132 13 37
129 8 41 -25 0 0 18 5 36 41 25 -38 128 47 3 129 30 8 127 37 19 130 36 44
127 24 7 -24 0 0 18 4 58 41 28 -40 127 1 39 127 46 22 125 49 5 128 55 19
125 33 32 -23 0 0 18 4 19 41 30 -42 125 10 2 125 56 46 123 53 57 127 8 35
123 35 40 -22 0 0 18 3 37 41 33 -44 123 10 53 124 0 7 121 50 22 125 15 30
121 28 50 -21 0 0 18 2 53 41 36 -47 121 2 25 121 54 51 119 36 8 123 14 43
120 0 0 -20 20 48 18 2 22 40 38 -48 -20 32 37 -20 9 2 -21 10 16 -19 32 12
119 0 0 -19 55 38 18 2 2 40 39 -50 -20 7 22 -19 43 58 -20 44 46 -19 7 22
118 0 0 -19 31 32 18 1 42 40 40 -51 -19 43 11 -19 19 56 -20 20 20 -18 43 35
117 0 0 -19 8 29 18 1 22 39 41 -52 -19 20 4 -18 56 58 -19 56 58 -18 20 50
116 0 0 -18 46 30 18 1 3 39 43 -53 -18 58 0 -18 35 2 -19 34 40 -17 59 7
115 0 0 -18 25 33 18 0 43 38 44 -54 -18 36 59 -18 14 10 -19 13 27 -17 38 27
114 0 0 -18 5 39 18 0 24 38 45 -55 -18 17 2 -17 54 20 -18 53 16 -17 18 49
113 0 0 -17 46 48 18 0 5 37 46 -56 -17 58 7 -17 35 32 -18 34 9 -17 0 13
112 0 0 -17 28 59 17 59 47 37 47 -57 -17 40 14 -17 17 47 -18 16 6 -16 42 38
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Oct 1.0]
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