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Updated: 2008 OCT 02, 00:17 UT
Event Rank : 4
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Nov 08 UT, the 13 km diameter asteroid (3568) ASCII will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a very narrow path of significant uncertainty across Australia from Heywood in southwestern Victoria across eastern South Australia and western Queensland west of Mt Isa .
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.4 mag to 16.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.1 seconds.
This update is based on historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
143 0 26 -44 33 34 10 52 41 65 19 -14 142 55 30 -44 34 10 143 5 22 -44 32 57 140 20 6 -44 51 58 145 38 15 -44 13 8
142 44 51 -43 2 51 10 52 54 67 20 -15 142 40 2 -43 3 26 142 49 39 -43 2 15 140 8 32 -43 20 55 145 18 48 -42 42 49
142 29 22 -41 33 2 10 53 8 68 22 -16 142 24 40 -41 33 37 142 34 4 -41 32 28 139 56 44 -41 50 48 144 59 47 -41 13 23
142 13 58 -40 4 4 10 53 22 70 24 -16 142 9 22 -40 4 38 142 18 34 -40 3 30 139 44 43 -40 21 32 144 41 8 -39 44 45
141 58 38 -38 35 50 10 53 36 71 26 -17 141 54 8 -38 36 24 142 3 9 -38 35 16 139 32 30 -38 53 2 144 22 49 -38 16 51
141 43 21 -37 8 17 10 53 50 72 29 -18 141 38 56 -37 8 50 141 47 46 -37 7 43 139 20 5 -37 25 13 144 4 46 -36 49 35
141 28 5 -35 41 19 10 54 4 73 32 -19 141 23 45 -35 41 52 141 32 25 -35 40 46 139 7 28 -35 58 1 143 46 57 -35 22 55
141 12 49 -34 14 53 10 54 18 74 35 -20 141 8 34 -34 15 25 141 17 5 -34 14 21 138 54 39 -34 31 21 143 29 19 -33 56 45
140 57 32 -32 48 55 10 54 32 75 39 -20 140 53 21 -32 49 27 141 1 44 -32 48 23 138 41 38 -33 5 10 143 11 51 -32 31 2
140 42 13 -31 23 21 10 54 46 76 43 -21 140 38 6 -31 23 53 140 46 21 -31 22 50 138 28 25 -31 39 24 142 54 30 -31 5 42
140 26 51 -29 58 9 10 55 0 77 48 -22 140 22 47 -29 58 40 140 30 55 -29 57 38 138 15 0 -30 13 59 142 37 15 -29 40 43
140 11 25 -28 33 13 10 55 14 78 54 -22 140 7 24 -28 33 44 140 15 25 -28 32 43 138 1 21 -28 48 52 142 20 4 -28 16 0
139 55 53 -27 8 32 10 55 28 79 60 -23 139 51 55 -27 9 2 139 59 51 -27 8 2 137 47 30 -27 24 0 142 2 55 -26 51 31
139 40 15 -25 44 1 10 55 41 79 67 -24 139 36 20 -25 44 31 139 44 10 -25 43 32 137 33 25 -25 59 20 141 45 47 -25 27 12
139 24 30 -24 19 39 10 55 55 79 74 -24 139 20 38 -24 20 8 139 28 22 -24 19 9 137 19 5 -24 34 47 141 28 39 -24 3 0
139 8 37 -22 55 21 10 56 9 79 82 -25 139 4 47 -22 55 50 139 12 27 -22 54 52 137 4 31 -23 10 20 141 11 29 -22 38 52
138 52 34 -21 31 4 10 56 23 79 90 -26 138 48 47 -21 31 33 138 56 22 -21 30 35 136 49 42 -21 45 54 140 54 15 -21 14 46
138 36 22 -20 6 47 10 56 37 79 97 -26 138 32 36 -20 7 15 138 40 7 -20 6 18 136 34 36 -20 21 28 140 36 57 -19 50 37
138 19 57 -18 42 24 10 56 51 79 104 -27 138 16 13 -18 42 53 138 23 41 -18 41 56 136 19 13 -18 56 57 140 19 33 -18 26 23
138 3 20 -17 17 54 10 57 5 78 111 -27 137 59 38 -17 18 22 138 7 2 -17 17 26 136 3 32 -17 32 19 140 2 1 -17 2 2
137 46 29 -15 53 13 10 57 19 77 116 -28 137 42 48 -15 53 41 137 50 9 -15 52 45 135 47 32 -16 7 31 139 44 20 -15 37 29
137 29 22 -14 28 19 10 57 33 76 121 -28 137 25 43 -14 28 46 137 33 1 -14 27 51 135 31 11 -14 42 29 139 26 29 -14 12 42
137 11 59 -13 3 7 10 57 47 76 125 -29 137 8 21 -13 3 34 137 15 37 -13 2 39 135 14 29 -13 17 9 139 8 26 -12 47 37
136 54 17 -11 37 34 10 58 1 74 129 -29 136 50 41 -11 38 1 136 57 54 -11 37 7 134 57 23 -11 51 30 138 50 9 -11 22 11
136 36 16 -10 11 37 10 58 14 73 132 -30 136 32 40 -10 12 4 136 39 52 -10 11 10 134 39 53 -10 25 26 138 31 37 - 9 56 21
136 17 53 - 8 45 13 10 58 28 72 135 -30 136 14 18 - 8 45 40 136 21 28 - 8 44 46 134 21 57 - 8 58 55 138 12 47 - 8 30 3
Uncertainty in time = +/- 18 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Oct 2.0]
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[Observing Details]
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