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Updated: 2008 NOV 13, 23:44 UT
Event Rank : 33
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2008 Nov 29 UT, the 20 km diameter asteroid (463) Lola will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a narrow path across southwestern Western Australia, including Perth, but at low altitude.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.4 mag to 14.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
123 47 56 -43 0 0 19 48 13 0 331 -3 ... .. .. 123 38 4 ... .. .. 122 58 21
123 3 42 -42 0 0 19 48 13 1 332 -4 123 13 26 122 53 58 ... .. .. 122 14 48
122 19 47 -41 0 0 19 48 14 2 332 -5 122 29 23 122 10 10 ... .. .. 121 31 30
121 36 6 -40 0 0 19 48 14 3 333 -6 121 45 35 121 26 36 122 23 40 120 48 24
120 52 37 -39 0 0 19 48 15 5 333 -7 121 1 59 120 43 14 121 39 38 120 5 28
120 9 17 -38 0 0 19 48 17 6 334 -8 120 18 33 120 0 0 120 55 46 119 22 39
119 26 3 -37 0 0 19 48 18 7 334 -9 119 35 13 119 16 52 120 12 4 118 39 54
118 42 53 -36 0 0 19 48 20 8 335 -10 118 51 58 118 33 47 119 28 26 117 57 10
117 59 44 -35 0 0 19 48 22 9 335 -11 118 8 44 117 50 43 118 44 53 117 14 26
117 16 34 -34 0 0 19 48 25 10 335 -12 117 25 30 117 7 38 118 1 20 116 31 39
116 33 21 -33 0 0 19 48 28 11 336 -13 116 42 12 116 24 29 117 17 45 115 48 47
115 50 2 -32 0 0 19 48 31 13 336 -14 115 58 50 115 41 14 116 34 7 115 5 48
115 6 36 -31 0 0 19 48 34 14 337 -16 115 15 20 114 57 51 115 50 23 114 22 39
114 23 0 -30 0 0 19 48 38 15 337 -17 114 31 40 114 14 18 115 6 30 113 39 19
113 39 11 -29 0 0 19 48 42 16 337 -18 113 47 49 113 30 33 114 22 27 112 55 45
112 55 9 -28 0 0 19 48 46 17 338 -19 113 3 44 112 46 33 113 38 12 112 11 55
112 10 50 -27 0 0 19 48 51 18 338 -20 112 19 23 112 2 17 112 53 42 111 27 48
111 26 13 -26 0 0 19 48 56 20 339 -21 111 34 45 111 17 42 112 8 55 110 43 21
110 41 16 -25 0 0 19 49 1 21 339 -22 110 49 46 110 32 46 111 23 49 109 58 31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
[Prediction of 2008 Nov 13.0]
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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