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Updated: 2009 FEB 19, 17:26 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Mar 28 UT, the 256 km diameter asteroid (31) Euphrosyne will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Corona Australis for observers along a path near New Zealand, near Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.8 mag to 13.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
160 43 57 -18 41 51 13 13 1 14 132 -74 164 3 26 -20 49 0 156 24 26 -15 32 12 165 49 21 -21 50 23 151 45 50 -11 35 6
161 13 26 -20 3 26 13 13 6 15 132 -73 164 24 4 -22 1 5 157 17 57 -17 18 18 166 6 56 -22 59 0 153 58 58 -14 40 18
161 37 37 -21 20 3 13 13 11 17 131 -72 164 41 23 -23 10 10 157 58 15 -18 51 37 166 21 46 -24 5 11 155 9 4 -16 43 35
161 57 26 -22 32 41 13 13 16 18 131 -71 164 55 46 -24 16 41 158 29 45 -20 16 33 166 34 9 -25 9 16 155 57 38 -18 25 53
162 13 37 -23 42 3 13 13 21 18 131 -70 165 7 34 -25 20 59 158 54 45 -21 35 23 166 44 17 -26 11 30 156 33 55 -19 56 21
162 26 37 -24 48 39 13 13 26 19 130 -68 165 17 0 -26 23 20 159 14 38 -22 49 31 166 52 22 -27 12 3 157 1 54 -21 18 55
162 36 49 -25 52 52 13 13 31 20 130 -67 165 24 16 -27 23 57 159 30 19 -23 59 52 166 58 33 -28 11 7 157 23 38 -22 35 43
162 44 28 -26 55 0 13 13 36 21 130 -66 165 29 32 -28 22 59 159 42 24 -25 7 5 167 2 54 -29 8 49 157 40 26 -23 48 0
162 49 49 -27 55 18 13 13 41 22 129 -65 165 32 55 -29 20 37 159 51 22 -26 11 38 167 5 33 -30 5 17 157 53 7 -24 56 39
162 53 0 -28 53 55 13 13 46 22 129 -64 165 34 30 -30 16 57 159 57 30 -27 13 52 167 6 34 -31 0 36 158 2 16 -26 2 16
162 54 10 -29 51 3 13 13 51 23 129 -63 165 34 22 -31 12 5 160 1 6 -28 14 5 167 6 0 -31 54 51 158 8 19 -27 5 17
162 53 24 -30 46 49 13 13 56 24 128 -62 165 32 35 -32 6 8 160 2 20 -29 12 28 167 3 53 -32 48 7 158 11 34 -28 6 3
162 50 48 -31 41 19 13 14 1 24 128 -62 165 29 11 -32 59 8 160 1 22 -30 9 14 167 0 16 -33 40 27 158 12 14 -29 4 48
162 46 25 -32 34 39 13 14 6 25 128 -61 165 24 13 -33 51 11 159 58 18 -31 4 30 166 55 11 -34 31 55 158 10 32 -30 1 46
162 40 19 -33 26 53 13 14 11 25 128 -60 165 17 43 -34 42 19 159 53 14 -31 58 24 166 48 38 -35 22 34 158 6 35 -30 57 7
162 32 31 -34 18 5 13 14 16 26 127 -59 165 9 40 -35 32 35 159 46 15 -32 51 1 166 40 37 -36 12 25 158 0 30 -31 50 59
162 23 3 -35 8 20 13 14 21 26 127 -58 165 0 7 -36 22 2 159 37 23 -33 42 27 166 31 10 -37 1 31 157 52 22 -32 43 28
162 11 57 -35 57 38 13 14 26 26 127 -57 164 49 2 -37 10 42 159 26 41 -34 32 46 166 20 16 -37 49 55 157 42 15 -33 34 39
161 59 11 -36 46 4 13 14 31 27 126 -56 164 36 26 -37 58 37 159 14 11 -35 22 2 166 7 55 -38 37 37 157 30 11 -34 24 39
161 44 48 -37 33 39 13 14 36 27 126 -56 164 22 19 -38 45 48 158 59 54 -36 10 16 165 54 5 -39 24 38 157 16 12 -35 13 29
161 28 46 -38 20 25 13 14 41 27 126 -55 164 6 39 -39 32 17 158 43 49 -36 57 33 165 38 45 -40 11 1 157 0 21 -36 1 15
161 11 4 -39 6 23 13 14 46 28 126 -54 163 49 25 -40 18 4 158 25 59 -37 43 53 165 21 55 -40 56 46 156 42 37 -36 47 57
160 51 42 -39 51 34 13 14 51 28 126 -53 163 30 36 -41 3 11 158 6 21 -38 29 18 165 3 33 -41 41 53 156 23 2 -37 33 38
160 30 38 -40 35 59 13 14 56 28 125 -53 163 10 10 -41 47 38 157 44 55 -39 13 50 164 43 36 -42 26 23 156 1 33 -38 18 20
160 7 50 -41 19 39 13 15 1 28 125 -52 162 48 5 -42 31 25 157 21 41 -39 57 29 164 22 2 -43 10 17 155 38 12 -39 2 4
159 43 17 -42 2 35 13 15 6 28 125 -51 162 24 19 -43 14 34 156 56 36 -40 40 16 163 58 50 -43 53 34 155 12 57 -39 44 51
159 16 57 -42 44 45 13 15 11 29 125 -50 161 58 49 -43 57 3 156 29 39 -41 22 12 163 33 56 -44 36 16 154 45 47 -40 26 41
158 48 47 -43 26 11 13 15 16 29 125 -50 161 31 33 -44 38 53 156 0 48 -42 3 17 163 7 18 -45 18 21 154 16 39 -41 7 35
158 18 44 -44 6 52 13 15 21 29 125 -49 161 2 27 -45 20 3 155 30 1 -42 43 29 162 38 52 -45 59 49 153 45 33 -41 47 33
157 46 46 -44 46 47 13 15 26 29 125 -48 160 31 28 -46 0 34 154 57 16 -43 22 50 162 8 35 -46 40 40 153 12 25 -42 26 34
157 12 49 -45 25 57 13 15 31 29 125 -48 159 58 34 -46 40 24 154 22 28 -44 1 18 161 36 23 -47 20 54 152 37 14 -43 4 37
156 36 50 -46 4 19 13 15 36 29 125 -47 159 23 39 -47 19 32 153 45 37 -44 38 53 161 2 12 -48 0 29 151 59 57 -43 41 42
155 58 46 -46 41 53 13 15 41 29 125 -46 158 46 41 -47 57 58 153 6 38 -45 15 32 160 25 59 -48 39 25 151 20 31 -44 17 48
155 18 32 -47 18 38 13 15 46 29 125 -46 158 7 34 -48 35 40 152 25 29 -45 51 16 159 47 38 -49 17 40 150 38 54 -44 52 53
154 36 5 -47 54 31 13 15 51 29 125 -45 157 26 16 -49 12 37 151 42 5 -46 26 1 159 7 6 -49 55 13 149 55 1 -45 26 55
153 51 21 -48 29 32 13 15 56 29 125 -44 156 42 40 -49 48 48 150 56 24 -46 59 47 158 24 17 -50 32 3 149 8 50 -45 59 52
153 4 16 -49 3 38 13 16 2 29 125 -44 155 56 43 -50 24 9 150 8 21 -47 32 31 157 39 6 -51 8 7 148 20 17 -46 31 41
152 14 46 -49 36 47 13 16 7 29 125 -43 155 8 19 -50 58 40 149 17 53 -48 4 9 156 51 29 -51 43 24 147 29 19 -47 2 21
151 22 45 -50 8 56 13 16 12 28 125 -42 154 17 25 -51 32 17 148 24 57 -48 34 41 156 1 19 -52 17 52 146 35 53 -47 31 48
150 28 10 -50 40 2 13 16 17 28 126 -42 153 23 53 -52 4 59 147 29 28 -49 4 1 155 8 32 -52 51 27 145 39 55 -47 59 58
149 30 56 -51 10 3 13 16 22 28 126 -41 152 27 40 -52 36 42 146 31 23 -49 32 7 154 13 1 -53 24 7 144 41 21 -48 26 48
148 30 59 -51 38 53 13 16 27 28 126 -40 151 28 41 -53 7 23 145 30 37 -49 58 55 153 14 42 -53 55 49 143 40 8 -48 52 12
147 28 15 -52 6 31 13 16 32 28 127 -40 150 26 50 -53 36 58 144 27 9 -50 24 20 152 13 28 -54 26 30 142 36 14 -49 16 8
146 22 40 -52 32 51 13 16 37 27 127 -39 149 22 2 -54 5 24 143 20 53 -50 48 17 151 9 14 -54 56 6 141 29 34 -49 38 28
145 14 9 -52 57 48 13 16 42 27 128 -38 148 14 12 -54 32 36 142 11 46 -51 10 42 150 1 55 -55 24 32 140 20 5 -49 59 7
144 2 39 -53 21 18 13 16 47 27 128 -38 147 3 17 -54 58 29 140 59 47 -51 31 27 148 51 25 -55 51 44 139 7 46 -50 17 59
142 48 8 -53 43 14 13 16 52 26 129 -37 145 49 11 -55 22 58 139 44 52 -51 50 27 147 37 39 -56 17 38 137 52 34 -50 34 56
141 30 31 -54 3 31 13 16 57 26 130 -36 144 31 51 -55 45 59 138 27 0 -52 7 35 146 20 34 -56 42 7 136 34 26 -50 49 51
140 9 48 -54 22 2 13 17 2 26 130 -36 143 11 15 -56 7 23 137 6 7 -52 22 42 145 0 5 -57 5 7 135 13 21 -51 2 33
138 45 56 -54 38 39 13 17 7 25 131 -35 141 47 19 -56 27 6 135 42 14 -52 35 39 143 36 8 -57 26 31 133 49 17 -51 12 52
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
[Prediction of 2009 Feb 19.0]
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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