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Updated: 2009 SEP 22, 04:54 UT
Event Rank : 32
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Nov 08 UT, the 28 km diameter asteroid (968) Petunia will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a north-to-south path through central Australia from east of Darwin to near Streaky Bay in South Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.1 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
133 5 8 -43 0 0 17 26 48 34 25 -21 132 53 48 133 16 27 132 5 33 134 4 16
133 16 55 -42 0 0 17 26 38 35 25 -21 133 5 47 133 28 3 132 18 22 134 15 3
133 27 49 -41 0 0 17 26 28 36 25 -22 133 16 51 133 38 45 132 30 13 134 25 0
133 37 52 -40 0 0 17 26 17 37 26 -23 133 27 5 133 48 38 132 41 11 134 34 9
133 47 7 -39 0 0 17 26 6 38 26 -23 133 36 30 133 57 44 132 51 18 134 42 33
133 55 37 -38 0 0 17 25 55 39 26 -24 133 45 9 134 6 4 133 0 37 134 50 15
134 3 24 -37 0 0 17 25 44 40 26 -25 133 53 5 134 13 42 133 9 11 134 57 16
134 10 30 -36 0 0 17 25 32 40 27 -25 134 0 19 134 20 40 133 17 0 135 3 39
134 16 56 -35 0 0 17 25 20 41 27 -26 134 6 53 134 26 59 133 24 8 135 9 25
134 22 45 -34 0 0 17 25 8 42 27 -27 134 12 50 134 32 40 133 30 37 135 14 35
134 27 58 -33 0 0 17 24 56 43 28 -28 134 18 10 134 37 46 133 36 27 135 19 11
134 32 37 -32 0 0 17 24 44 44 28 -28 134 22 55 134 42 18 133 41 40 135 23 15
134 36 42 -31 0 0 17 24 31 45 29 -29 134 27 6 134 46 16 133 46 18 135 26 47
134 40 14 -30 0 0 17 24 18 46 29 -30 134 30 45 134 49 43 133 50 22 135 29 49
134 43 16 -29 0 0 17 24 5 47 30 -30 134 33 52 134 52 39 133 53 53 135 32 21
134 45 47 -28 0 0 17 23 52 48 30 -31 134 36 28 134 55 5 133 56 52 135 34 24
134 47 48 -27 0 0 17 23 39 48 31 -32 134 38 35 134 57 2 133 59 20 135 36 0
134 49 21 -26 0 0 17 23 25 49 31 -32 134 40 13 134 58 30 134 1 18 135 37 8
134 50 26 -25 0 0 17 23 12 50 32 -33 134 41 22 134 59 30 134 2 47 135 37 50
134 51 4 -24 0 0 17 22 58 51 33 -34 134 42 4 135 0 4 134 3 46 135 38 6
134 51 14 -23 0 0 17 22 44 52 33 -35 134 42 18 135 0 10 134 4 17 135 37 56
134 50 58 -22 0 0 17 22 30 53 34 -35 134 42 6 134 59 51 134 4 20 135 37 21
134 50 16 -21 0 0 17 22 15 53 35 -36 134 41 27 134 59 5 134 3 56 135 36 21
134 49 8 -20 0 0 17 22 1 54 36 -37 134 40 22 134 57 54 134 3 5 135 34 57
134 47 35 -19 0 0 17 21 46 55 37 -37 134 38 52 134 56 18 134 1 47 135 33 8
134 45 36 -18 0 0 17 21 31 56 38 -38 134 36 56 134 54 16 134 0 2 135 30 55
134 43 12 -17 0 0 17 21 16 56 39 -39 134 34 34 134 51 50 133 57 51 135 28 18
134 40 23 -16 0 0 17 21 1 57 40 -40 134 31 47 134 48 58 133 55 14 135 25 17
134 37 9 -15 0 0 17 20 46 58 41 -40 134 28 35 134 45 42 133 52 11 135 21 52
134 33 30 -14 0 0 17 20 31 58 42 -41 134 24 58 134 42 1 133 48 41 135 18 3
134 29 25 -13 0 0 17 20 15 59 44 -42 134 20 55 134 37 55 133 44 46 135 13 50
134 24 56 -12 0 0 17 20 0 60 45 -42 134 16 27 134 33 24 133 40 24 135 9 13
134 20 1 -11 0 0 17 19 44 60 47 -43 134 11 33 134 28 28 133 35 35 135 4 11
134 14 40 -10 0 0 17 19 28 61 48 -44 134 6 14 134 23 6 133 30 20 134 58 45
134 8 54 - 9 0 0 17 19 12 61 50 -44 134 0 28 134 17 19 133 24 38 134 52 54
134 2 41 - 8 0 0 17 18 56 62 51 -45 133 54 16 134 11 6 133 18 29 134 46 38
133 56 2 - 7 0 0 17 18 40 62 53 -46 133 47 38 134 4 26 133 11 52 134 39 56
133 48 56 - 6 0 0 17 18 24 63 55 -47 133 40 32 133 57 20 133 4 48 134 32 49
133 41 23 - 5 0 0 17 18 8 63 57 -47 133 32 59 133 49 46 132 57 15 134 25 15
133 33 22 - 4 0 0 17 17 52 63 58 -48 133 24 58 133 41 45 132 49 13 134 17 15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2009 Sep 22.0
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