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Updated: 2009 DEC 27, 12:22 UT
Event Rank : 33
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jan 06 UT, the 17 km diameter asteroid (1653) Yakhontovia will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path beginning near Cooktown in northern Queensland, running across Australia and leaving at Albany in Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
115 47 29 -37 0 0 14 47 18 26 354 -27 115 35 47 115 59 13 114 49 29 116 46 14
116 40 31 -36 0 0 14 46 57 27 354 -28 116 28 49 116 52 15 115 42 33 117 39 16
117 35 5 -35 0 0 14 46 34 28 353 -29 117 23 22 117 46 49 116 37 5 118 33 53
118 31 15 -34 0 0 14 46 10 29 352 -30 118 19 31 118 43 0 117 33 9 119 30 10
119 29 5 -33 0 0 14 45 46 30 351 -31 119 17 19 119 40 53 118 30 49 120 28 12
120 28 41 -32 0 0 14 45 20 30 350 -33 120 16 52 120 40 32 119 30 11 121 28 4
121 30 7 -31 0 0 14 44 53 31 349 -34 121 18 14 121 42 2 120 31 18 122 29 52
122 33 30 -30 0 0 14 44 25 32 348 -35 122 21 33 122 45 31 121 34 18 123 33 41
123 38 58 -29 0 0 14 43 56 33 347 -36 123 26 54 123 51 4 122 39 17 124 39 41
124 46 38 -28 0 0 14 43 26 34 345 -37 124 34 27 124 58 51 123 46 22 125 47 58
125 56 38 -27 0 0 14 42 55 34 344 -39 125 44 19 126 9 1 124 55 42 126 58 43
127 9 11 -26 0 0 14 42 22 35 343 -40 126 56 41 127 21 43 126 7 26 128 12 8
128 24 26 -25 0 0 14 41 49 36 341 -41 128 11 45 128 37 10 127 21 46 129 28 25
129 42 39 -24 0 0 14 41 13 36 340 -42 129 29 44 129 55 37 128 38 54 130 47 48
131 4 6 -23 0 0 14 40 37 37 339 -44 130 50 55 131 17 20 129 59 5 132 10 37
132 29 5 -22 0 0 14 39 59 37 337 -45 132 15 37 132 42 38 131 22 37 133 37 13
133 58 0 -21 0 0 14 39 19 38 335 -46 133 44 10 134 11 54 132 49 51 135 8 0
135 31 19 -20 0 0 14 38 38 38 334 -47 135 17 4 135 45 38 134 21 10 136 43 30
137 9 35 -19 0 0 14 37 54 38 332 -48 136 54 51 137 24 25 135 57 6 138 24 23
138 53 32 -18 0 0 14 37 9 38 330 -50 138 38 13 139 8 57 137 38 17 140 11 28
140 44 4 -17 0 0 14 36 21 38 328 -51 140 28 3 141 0 13 139 25 28 142 5 48
142 42 25 -16 0 0 14 35 31 38 326 -52 142 25 31 142 59 27 141 19 42 144 8 53
144 50 12 -15 0 0 14 34 37 38 324 -53 144 32 13 145 8 23 143 22 21 146 22 42
145 0 0 -14 55 36 14 34 33 38 324 -53 -14 47 29 -15 3 45 -14 15 26 -15 36 27
146 0 0 -14 29 17 14 34 9 38 323 -53 -14 21 14 -14 37 22 -13 49 25 -15 9 48
147 0 0 -14 4 2 14 33 44 38 322 -53 -13 56 2 -14 12 3 -13 24 27 -14 44 14
Uncertainty in time = +/- 11 secs
Prediction of 2009 Dec 27.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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