|
|
Updated: 2010 JAN 11, 17:39 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Mar 05 UT, the 151 km diameter asteroid (776) Berbericia will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Coma Berenices for observers along a path across Australia, from Adelaide at low elevation in morning twilight across southern South Australia and Western Australia to Port Headland
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.3 mag to 12.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
146 9 51 -40 0 0 20 7 3 5 306 0 147 45 39 144 35 36 148 40 2 143 43 27
144 20 57 -39 0 0 20 7 5 7 307 -2 145 53 38 142 49 38 146 46 10 141 59 2
142 36 21 -38 0 0 20 7 6 8 308 -3 144 6 14 141 7 38 144 57 8 140 18 26
140 55 33 -37 0 0 20 7 8 10 309 -5 142 22 56 139 29 12 143 12 22 138 41 16
139 18 11 -36 0 0 20 7 11 12 310 -6 140 43 19 137 53 58 141 31 24 137 7 10
137 43 53 -35 0 0 20 7 14 13 311 -7 139 6 58 136 21 37 139 53 52 135 35 52
136 12 22 -34 0 0 20 7 17 15 312 -9 137 33 35 134 51 51 138 19 24 134 7 3
134 43 21 -33 0 0 20 7 20 16 313 -10 136 2 53 133 24 27 136 47 43 132 40 31
133 16 36 -32 0 0 20 7 24 18 314 -12 134 34 35 131 59 11 135 18 31 131 16 2
131 51 55 -31 0 0 20 7 28 20 315 -13 133 8 29 130 35 50 133 51 35 129 53 25
130 29 5 -30 0 0 20 7 32 21 315 -15 131 44 21 129 14 15 132 26 43 128 32 30
129 7 57 -29 0 0 20 7 37 23 316 -16 130 22 2 127 54 15 131 3 42 127 13 7
127 48 21 -28 0 0 20 7 42 24 317 -17 129 1 21 126 35 41 129 42 23 125 55 7
126 30 8 -27 0 0 20 7 47 26 317 -19 127 42 8 125 18 26 128 22 36 124 38 23
125 13 11 -26 0 0 20 7 52 27 318 -20 126 24 16 124 2 21 127 4 12 123 22 46
123 57 22 -25 0 0 20 7 58 29 319 -21 125 7 37 122 47 20 125 47 3 122 8 11
122 42 34 -24 0 0 20 8 4 30 319 -23 123 52 3 121 33 16 124 31 3 120 54 31
121 28 41 -23 0 0 20 8 10 32 320 -24 122 37 28 120 20 3 123 16 4 119 41 39
120 15 37 -22 0 0 20 8 16 33 320 -26 121 23 46 119 7 35 122 2 0 118 29 31
119 3 17 -21 0 0 20 8 23 34 321 -27 120 10 51 117 55 47 120 48 45 117 18 1
117 51 34 -20 0 0 20 8 30 36 322 -28 118 58 38 116 44 34 119 36 13 116 7 3
116 40 24 -19 0 0 20 8 37 37 322 -30 117 47 0 115 33 50 118 24 20 114 56 33
115 29 43 -18 0 0 20 8 44 39 323 -31 116 35 54 114 23 31 117 12 59 113 46 27
114 19 24 -17 0 0 20 8 52 40 323 -32 115 25 14 113 13 33 116 2 6 112 36 39
113 9 25 -16 0 0 20 8 59 42 324 -34 114 14 56 112 3 51 114 51 37 111 27 6
111 59 40 -15 0 0 20 9 7 43 324 -35 113 4 56 110 54 20 113 41 27 110 17 43
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2010 Jan 11.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]