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Updated: 2010 APR 28, 22:47 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jun 22 UT, the 45 km diameter asteroid (759) Vinifera will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Norma for observers along a south-to-north path across central Australia from just east of Eucla to near Halls Creek and Wyndham in Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.4 mag to 14.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
131 26 47 -36 49 26 9 50 21 56 127 -20 131 9 39 -36 47 45 131 43 53 -36 51 3 130 33 56 -36 44 2 132 19 23 -36 54 14
131 17 38 -35 26 52 9 50 36 55 128 -20 131 0 45 -35 25 8 131 34 28 -35 28 31 130 25 35 -35 21 21 132 9 26 -35 31 46
131 7 22 -34 3 25 9 50 50 55 130 -19 130 50 44 -34 1 39 131 23 58 -34 5 7 130 16 3 -33 57 47 131 58 25 -34 8 28
130 55 59 -32 39 1 9 51 5 54 131 -19 130 39 34 -32 37 12 131 12 21 -32 40 46 130 5 22 -32 33 14 131 46 21 -32 44 13
130 43 28 -31 13 35 9 51 20 53 133 -18 130 27 16 -31 11 42 130 59 39 -31 15 23 129 53 29 -31 7 36 131 33 13 -31 18 57
130 29 50 -29 46 59 9 51 34 51 134 -18 130 13 49 -29 45 3 130 45 49 -29 48 52 129 40 25 -29 40 49 131 18 59 -29 52 33
130 15 2 -28 19 8 9 51 49 50 135 -17 129 59 11 -28 17 8 130 30 51 -28 21 5 129 26 8 -28 12 44 131 3 40 -28 24 56
129 59 2 -26 49 54 9 52 4 49 136 -17 129 43 20 -26 47 49 130 14 42 -26 51 56 129 10 35 -26 43 15 130 47 11 -26 55 57
129 41 46 -25 19 9 9 52 18 48 137 -16 129 26 13 -25 16 57 129 57 18 -25 21 16 128 53 44 -25 12 12 130 29 31 -25 25 28
129 23 12 -23 46 41 9 52 33 47 138 -15 129 7 45 -23 44 24 129 38 37 -23 48 55 128 35 31 -23 39 25 130 10 35 -23 53 20
129 3 14 -22 12 22 9 52 48 45 139 -14 128 47 53 -22 9 58 129 18 33 -22 14 43 128 15 51 -22 4 43 129 50 18 -22 19 22
128 41 46 -20 35 58 9 53 2 44 140 -14 128 26 30 -20 33 25 128 57 1 -20 38 26 127 54 37 -20 27 54 129 28 36 -20 43 22
128 18 42 -18 57 14 9 53 17 42 141 -13 128 3 28 -18 54 32 128 33 53 -18 59 51 127 31 41 -18 48 41 129 5 21 -19 5 5
127 53 51 -17 15 53 9 53 32 41 142 -12 127 38 39 -17 13 0 128 9 0 -17 18 41 127 6 55 -17 6 47 128 40 24 -17 24 15
127 27 2 -15 31 34 9 53 46 39 143 -11 127 11 51 -15 28 29 127 42 11 -15 34 33 126 40 6 -15 21 49 128 13 34 -15 40 32
126 58 1 -13 43 51 9 54 1 38 143 -10 126 42 48 -13 40 33 127 13 12 -13 47 5 126 10 59 -13 33 23 127 44 37 -13 53 32
126 26 30 -11 52 15 9 54 16 36 144 -9 126 11 13 -11 48 40 126 41 45 -11 55 45 125 39 15 -11 40 54 127 13 17 -12 2 44
125 52 5 - 9 56 6 9 54 30 34 145 -8 125 36 41 - 9 52 11 126 7 26 - 9 59 55 125 4 27 - 9 43 43 126 39 12 -10 7 33
125 14 15 - 7 54 33 9 54 45 32 145 -6 124 58 40 - 7 50 14 125 29 46 - 7 58 45 124 26 3 - 7 40 54 126 1 51 - 8 7 11
124 32 17 - 5 46 30 9 54 59 30 146 -5 124 16 27 - 5 41 41 124 48 3 - 5 51 12 123 43 17 - 5 31 17 125 20 36 - 6 0 35
123 45 12 - 3 30 26 9 55 14 28 146 -3 123 29 1 - 3 24 59 124 1 18 - 3 35 44 122 55 3 - 3 13 12 124 34 32 - 3 46 20
122 51 31 - 1 4 6 9 55 29 25 146 -2 122 34 49 - 0 57 49 123 8 7 - 1 10 13 121 59 42 - 0 44 13 123 42 20 - 1 22 25
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2010 Apr 29.0
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