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Updated: 2010 MAY 26, 19:48 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Jul 26 UT, the 45 km diameter asteroid (759) Vinifera will occult a 10.3 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing over Dunedin and Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.1 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
173 14 48 -47 19 22 14 32 3 23 232 -53 172 41 7 -47 39 17 173 48 47 -46 58 53 171 32 34 -48 18 41 174 59 53 -46 14 45
172 27 57 -46 58 2 14 32 9 23 232 -54 171 54 25 -47 17 38 173 1 46 -46 37 54 170 46 12 -47 56 22 174 12 31 -45 54 32
171 42 47 -46 35 51 14 32 15 23 232 -54 171 9 25 -46 55 7 172 16 26 -46 16 2 170 1 30 -47 33 15 173 26 51 -45 33 22
170 59 16 -46 12 49 14 32 21 24 232 -55 170 26 3 -46 31 48 171 32 46 -45 53 18 169 18 28 -47 9 22 172 42 51 -45 11 17
170 17 22 -45 48 59 14 32 27 24 233 -56 169 44 19 -46 7 42 170 50 43 -45 29 44 168 37 3 -46 44 44 172 0 29 -44 48 20
169 37 3 -45 24 22 14 32 32 24 233 -56 169 4 9 -45 42 50 170 10 16 -45 5 23 167 57 12 -46 19 23 171 19 42 -44 24 32
168 58 18 -44 59 1 14 32 38 24 233 -57 168 25 32 -45 17 16 169 31 21 -44 40 17 167 18 54 -45 53 20 170 40 31 -43 59 56
168 21 4 -44 32 57 14 32 44 24 233 -57 167 48 27 -44 50 59 168 53 59 -44 14 25 166 42 6 -45 26 38 170 2 51 -43 34 33
167 45 19 -44 6 11 14 32 50 24 233 -58 167 12 50 -44 24 1 168 18 6 -43 47 51 166 6 47 -44 59 17 169 26 42 -43 8 25
167 11 2 -43 38 44 14 32 56 24 233 -59 166 38 41 -43 56 24 167 43 42 -43 20 36 165 32 55 -44 31 19 168 52 2 -42 41 32
166 38 11 -43 10 38 14 33 1 24 233 -59 166 5 58 -43 28 8 167 10 43 -42 52 39 165 0 28 -44 2 44 168 18 49 -42 13 57
166 6 45 -42 41 53 14 33 7 24 234 -60 165 34 38 -42 59 14 166 39 10 -42 24 3 164 29 24 -43 33 33 167 47 2 -41 45 39
165 36 41 -42 12 31 14 33 13 24 234 -60 165 4 41 -42 29 44 166 8 59 -41 54 48 163 59 41 -43 3 47 167 16 39 -41 16 40
165 7 58 -41 42 31 14 33 19 24 234 -61 164 36 4 -41 59 38 165 40 10 -41 24 55 163 31 18 -42 33 27 166 47 39 -40 47 1
164 40 35 -41 11 55 14 33 25 24 234 -62 164 8 47 -41 28 56 165 12 42 -40 54 25 163 4 14 -42 2 33 166 20 0 -40 16 42
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2010 May 26.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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