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Updated: 2010 OCT 03, 20:55 UT
Event Rank : 40
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 07 UT, the 38 km diameter asteroid (961) Gunnie will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a south-to-north path in WA from Cocklebiddy to Derby.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.5 mag to 16.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
126 20 11 -35 0 0 19 9 57 20 1 -15 126 33 12 126 7 11 127 16 19 125 23 54
126 13 58 -34 0 0 19 10 4 21 1 -15 126 26 49 126 1 6 127 9 27 125 18 19
126 7 30 -33 0 0 19 10 11 22 1 -16 126 20 13 125 54 46 127 2 22 125 12 28
126 0 47 -32 0 0 19 10 18 23 1 -17 126 13 22 125 48 12 126 55 5 125 6 20
125 53 50 -31 0 0 19 10 25 24 1 -17 126 6 18 125 41 23 126 47 35 124 59 57
125 46 40 -30 0 0 19 10 33 25 1 -18 125 59 0 125 34 19 126 39 53 124 53 17
125 39 15 -29 0 0 19 10 41 26 1 -18 125 51 28 125 27 1 126 31 59 124 46 22
125 31 36 -28 0 0 19 10 49 27 2 -19 125 43 43 125 19 29 126 23 52 124 39 12
125 23 44 -27 0 0 19 10 58 28 2 -20 125 35 45 125 11 43 126 15 33 124 31 46
125 15 38 -26 0 0 19 11 7 29 2 -20 125 27 33 125 3 43 126 7 2 124 24 6
125 7 19 -25 0 0 19 11 16 30 2 -21 125 19 8 124 55 29 125 58 18 124 16 10
124 58 46 -24 0 0 19 11 26 31 2 -21 125 10 29 124 47 1 125 49 23 124 8 0
124 49 59 -23 0 0 19 11 35 32 2 -22 125 1 38 124 38 20 125 40 15 123 59 34
124 40 59 -22 0 0 19 11 45 33 2 -23 124 52 33 124 29 24 125 30 54 123 50 54
124 31 45 -21 0 0 19 11 56 34 2 -23 124 43 15 124 20 15 125 21 22 123 41 59
124 22 18 -20 0 0 19 12 6 35 3 -24 124 33 43 124 10 51 125 11 37 123 32 50
124 12 37 -19 0 0 19 12 17 36 3 -24 124 23 59 124 1 14 125 1 40 123 23 25
124 2 42 -18 0 0 19 12 28 37 3 -25 124 14 1 123 51 24 124 51 30 123 13 46
123 52 34 -17 0 0 19 12 40 38 3 -25 124 3 49 123 41 19 124 41 7 123 3 52
123 42 12 -16 0 0 19 12 51 39 3 -26 123 53 24 123 31 0 124 30 32 122 53 44
123 31 37 -15 0 0 19 13 3 40 3 -27 123 42 46 123 20 27 124 19 44 122 43 20
123 20 47 -14 0 0 19 13 15 41 4 -27 123 31 53 123 9 40 124 8 43 122 32 42
123 9 43 -13 0 0 19 13 28 42 4 -28 123 20 47 122 58 38 123 57 29 122 21 48
122 58 25 -12 0 0 19 13 40 43 4 -28 123 9 27 122 47 23 123 46 2 122 10 39
122 46 53 -11 0 0 19 13 53 44 4 -29 122 57 53 122 35 52 123 34 22 121 59 16
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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