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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (11861) 1988VY2 - 2010 Nov 12

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2010 SEP 17, 16:06 UT

Event Rank : 11

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

1988VY2 Update Map


On 2010 Nov 12 UT, the 23 km diameter asteroid (11861) 1988 VY2 will occult a 8.4 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a quite narrow but highly uncertain path centred just south of Sydney, and moving north-west into evening twilight in south-west QLD.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.5 mag to 9.6 mag (the combined magnitude of the asteroid and the other component of the double star) for at most 3.3 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    125  0  0   - 7 25  1    9 35  9    43    97     0  - 7 15 29  - 7 34 34  - 5 21 26  - 9 32 13
    126  0  0   - 8 16 26    9 34 52    44    96    -1  - 8  6 49  - 8 26  4  - 6 11 43  -10 24 53
    127  0  0   - 9  8 49    9 34 36    45    95    -2  - 8 59  7  - 9 18 33  - 7  2 57  -11 18 33
    128  0  0   -10  2 11    9 34 19    46    94    -2  - 9 52 23  -10 12  1  - 7 55  9  -12 13 13
    129  0  0   -10 56 31    9 34  1    47    93    -3  -10 46 37  -11  6 26  - 8 48 16  -13  8 52

    130  0  0   -11 51 47    9 33 43    48    92    -3  -11 41 47  -12  1 48  - 9 42 19  -14  5 30
    131  0  0   -12 47 59    9 33 25    49    91    -4  -12 37 53  -12 58  6  -10 37 16  -15  3  5
    132  0  0   -13 45  5    9 33  7    50    89    -4  -13 34 53  -13 55 18  -11 33  7  -16  1 36
    133  0  0   -14 43  4    9 32 48    50    88    -5  -14 32 47  -14 53 24  -12 29 49  -17  1  2
    134  0  0   -15 41 56    9 32 28    51    87    -5  -15 31 31  -15 52 21  -13 27 21  -18  1 22

    135  0  0   -16 41 37    9 32  9    52    85    -6  -16 31  6  -16 52  9  -14 25 43  -19  2 33
    136  0  0   -17 42  7    9 31 49    53    83    -6  -17 31 30  -17 52 45  -15 24 52  -20  4 35
    137  0  0   -18 43 23    9 31 29    54    82    -7  -18 32 39  -18 54  9  -16 24 46  -21  7 24
    138  0  0   -19 45 24    9 31  8    54    80    -7  -19 34 34  -19 56 17  -17 25 24  -22 11  0
    139  0  0   -20 48  8    9 30 48    55    78    -8  -20 37 11  -20 59  7  -18 26 44  -23 15 20

    140  0  0   -21 51 32    9 30 27    55    76    -8  -21 40 28  -22  2 39  -19 28 44  -24 20 22
    141  0  0   -22 55 35    9 30  6    56    73    -8  -22 44 24  -23  6 48  -20 31 20  -25 26  3
    142  0  0   -24  0 12    9 29 44    56    71    -9  -23 48 54  -24 11 32  -21 34 32  -26 32 20
    143  0  0   -25  5 22    9 29 23    57    69    -9  -24 53 57  -25 16 50  -22 38 15  -27 39 11
    144  0  0   -26 11  2    9 29  1    57    66    -9  -25 59 30  -26 22 37  -23 42 28  -28 46 32

    145  0  0   -27 17  9    9 28 40    57    64   -10  -27  5 30  -27 28 50  -24 47  8  -29 54 20
    146  0  0   -28 23 39    9 28 18    58    61   -10  -28 11 52  -28 35 27  -25 52 10  -31  2 32
    147  0  0   -29 30 28    9 27 56    58    59   -10  -29 18 35  -29 42 24  -26 57 33  -32 11  5
    148  0  0   -30 37 35    9 27 35    58    56   -10  -30 25 34  -30 49 38  -28  3 13  -33 19 53
    149  0  0   -31 44 54    9 27 13    58    53   -10  -31 32 46  -31 57  4  -29  9  6  -34 28 54

    150  0  0   -32 52 21    9 26 51    58    51   -11  -32 40  7  -33  4 39  -30 15  9  -35 38  3
    151  0  0   -33 59 54    9 26 30    58    48   -11  -33 47 32  -34 12 18  -31 21 18  -36 47 15
    152  0  0   -35  7 27    9 26  8    57    46   -11  -34 54 59  -35 19 58  -32 27 29  -37 56 27
    153  0  0   -36 14 56    9 25 47    57    43   -11  -36  2 21  -36 27 34  -33 33 38  -39  5 33
    154  0  0   -37 22 17    9 25 26    57    41   -11  -37  9 36  -37 35  2  -34 39 41  -40 14 28


Uncertainty in time = +/- 21 secs

Prediction of 2010 Sep 17.0

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