|
|
Updated: 2010 OCT 04, 15:57 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 17 UT, the 182 km diameter asteroid (14) Irene will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across Western Australia from Albany to Kambalda, with Perth just inside the 1-sigma uncertainty area.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 11.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
115 40 11 -37 47 34 15 20 2 28 263 -32 113 40 41 -37 38 12 117 46 38 -37 54 11 109 50 51 -37 11 29 122 37 26 -37 56 37
116 28 18 -36 53 41 15 20 8 27 262 -33 114 27 55 -36 45 21 118 35 56 -36 59 6 110 36 55 -36 20 28 123 30 54 -36 58 17
117 18 24 -35 59 5 15 20 15 26 261 -34 115 16 53 -35 51 53 119 27 34 -36 3 12 111 24 19 -35 28 56 124 27 50 -35 58 40
118 10 44 -35 3 40 15 20 21 26 260 -35 116 7 47 -34 57 42 120 21 49 -35 6 19 112 13 11 -34 36 51 125 28 48 -34 57 33
119 5 34 -34 7 17 15 20 27 25 259 -37 117 0 49 -34 2 42 121 19 3 -34 8 18 113 3 40 -33 44 8 126 34 32 -33 54 36
120 3 15 -33 9 49 15 20 33 24 259 -38 117 56 16 -33 6 45 122 19 45 -33 8 57 113 55 58 -32 50 43 127 46 6 -32 49 21
121 4 14 -32 11 3 15 20 40 23 258 -39 118 54 28 -32 9 44 123 24 28 -32 8 1 114 50 18 -31 56 28 129 4 57 -31 41 13
122 9 2 -31 10 46 15 20 46 21 257 -40 119 55 50 -31 11 27 124 34 1 -31 5 10 115 46 55 -31 1 18 130 33 21 -30 29 13
123 18 24 -30 8 38 15 20 52 20 256 -41 121 0 54 -30 11 41 125 49 26 -29 59 56 116 46 7 -30 5 5 132 15 4 -29 11 48
124 33 19 -29 4 16 15 20 59 19 255 -42 122 10 20 -29 10 8 127 12 18 -28 51 41 117 48 19 -29 7 37 134 17 21 -27 45 58
125 55 9 -27 57 3 15 21 5 17 254 -43 123 25 3 -28 6 25 128 44 58 -27 39 26 118 54 0 -28 8 43 136 58 13 -26 4 19
127 25 59 -26 46 9 15 21 11 16 253 -44 124 46 21 -27 0 0 130 31 22 -26 21 33 120 3 46 -27 8 8 142 5 59 -23 22 30
129 9 12 -25 30 10 15 21 17 14 252 -45 126 16 7 -25 50 5 132 39 7 -24 54 53 121 18 29 -26 5 29 ... .. .. .. .. ..
131 10 55 -24 6 32 15 21 24 12 251 -47 127 57 20 -24 35 26 135 27 27 -23 11 33 122 39 15 -25 0 18 ... .. .. .. .. ..
133 45 9 -22 29 33 15 21 30 9 250 -48 129 55 18 -23 13 53 141 4 39 -20 19 14 124 7 44 -23 51 54 ... .. .. .. .. ..
137 46 4 -20 17 6 15 21 36 5 248 -49 132 21 14 -21 40 48 ... .. .. .. .. .. 125 46 25 -22 39 16 ... .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]