|
|
Updated: 2010 OCT 04, 22:34 UT
Event Rank : 22
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 28 UT, the 26 km diameter asteroid (4349) Tiburcio will occult a 9.8 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a south-to-north path across WA from Cocklebiddy to Fitzroy Crossing.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.0 mag to 14.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
124 51 38 -11 0 0 12 38 18 85 355 -37 124 58 47 124 44 28 125 41 53 124 1 23
124 56 20 -12 0 0 12 38 2 84 356 -37 125 3 31 124 49 9 125 46 46 124 5 54
125 1 2 -13 0 0 12 37 45 83 356 -36 125 8 15 124 53 49 125 51 40 124 10 25
125 5 44 -14 0 0 12 37 29 82 357 -35 125 12 59 124 58 30 125 56 35 124 14 55
125 10 27 -15 0 0 12 37 13 81 357 -35 125 17 44 125 3 11 126 1 31 124 19 24
125 15 10 -16 0 0 12 36 57 80 357 -34 125 22 28 125 7 51 126 6 29 124 23 52
125 19 53 -17 0 0 12 36 41 79 358 -33 125 27 14 125 12 32 126 11 27 124 28 19
125 24 36 -18 0 0 12 36 25 78 358 -33 125 31 59 125 17 13 126 16 27 124 32 45
125 29 19 -19 0 0 12 36 9 77 358 -32 125 36 44 125 21 53 126 21 28 124 37 10
125 34 2 -20 0 0 12 35 53 76 358 -31 125 41 30 125 26 33 126 26 30 124 41 34
125 38 45 -21 0 0 12 35 37 75 358 -31 125 46 16 125 31 13 126 31 34 124 45 56
125 43 28 -22 0 0 12 35 21 74 358 -30 125 51 2 125 35 53 126 36 38 124 50 18
125 48 10 -23 0 0 12 35 5 73 358 -29 125 55 48 125 40 33 126 41 44 124 54 38
125 52 53 -24 0 0 12 34 50 72 358 -29 126 0 34 125 45 12 126 46 51 124 58 56
125 57 36 -25 0 0 12 34 34 71 358 -28 126 5 21 125 49 51 126 52 0 125 3 13
126 2 19 -26 0 0 12 34 18 70 358 -27 126 10 7 125 54 30 126 57 9 125 7 29
126 7 1 -27 0 0 12 34 3 69 358 -27 126 14 54 125 59 8 127 2 20 125 11 43
126 11 43 -28 0 0 12 33 48 68 358 -26 126 19 40 126 3 46 127 7 33 125 15 55
126 16 25 -29 0 0 12 33 33 67 358 -25 126 24 27 126 8 24 127 12 46 125 20 6
126 21 8 -30 0 0 12 33 18 66 358 -25 126 29 14 126 13 1 127 18 2 125 24 14
126 25 49 -31 0 0 12 33 3 65 358 -24 126 34 1 126 17 38 127 23 19 125 28 21
126 30 31 -32 0 0 12 32 48 64 358 -23 126 38 48 126 22 15 127 28 37 125 32 27
126 35 13 -33 0 0 12 32 33 63 358 -22 126 43 35 126 26 51 127 33 58 125 36 30
126 39 55 -34 0 0 12 32 18 62 358 -22 126 48 23 126 31 27 127 39 20 125 40 31
126 44 37 -35 0 0 12 32 4 61 358 -21 126 53 11 126 36 3 127 44 45 125 44 30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]