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Updated: 2010 OCT 04, 22:47 UT
Event Rank : 15
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 29 UT, the 10 km diameter asteroid (1525) Savonlinna will occult a 9.8 mag star in the constellation Aries for observers along a narrow but quite uncertain path beginning in west QLD at low altitude, and moving west into WA where it is centred over Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.9 mag to 15.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
107 37 4 -38 0 0 17 21 57 21 329 -30 107 25 37 107 48 35 105 44 14 109 37 6
108 39 42 -37 0 0 17 21 41 22 328 -31 108 28 1 108 51 27 106 44 47 110 42 25
109 47 7 -36 0 0 17 21 24 22 326 -31 109 35 9 109 59 10 107 49 36 111 53 15
110 59 52 -35 0 0 17 21 6 22 325 -32 110 47 32 111 12 17 108 59 4 113 10 18
112 18 38 -34 0 0 17 20 47 23 324 -33 112 5 51 112 31 31 110 13 45 114 34 31
113 44 20 -33 0 0 17 20 27 23 323 -33 113 30 58 113 57 49 111 34 18 116 7 15
115 18 14 -32 0 0 17 20 6 23 321 -34 115 4 7 115 32 29 113 1 36 117 50 26
117 2 10 -31 0 0 17 19 42 23 320 -34 116 47 4 117 17 28 114 36 55 119 47 6
118 58 56 -30 0 0 17 19 17 22 318 -35 118 42 27 119 15 40 116 22 0 122 2 24
121 13 9 -29 0 0 17 18 50 22 316 -35 120 54 37 121 32 3 118 19 30 124 46 29
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
122 0 0 -28 41 12 17 18 41 22 315 -35 -28 33 35 -28 48 52 -27 25 59 -30 0 59
123 0 0 -28 18 41 17 18 29 21 315 -35 -28 11 9 -28 26 15 -27 4 22 -29 37 23
124 0 0 -27 57 52 17 18 18 21 314 -34 -27 50 26 -28 5 21 -26 44 21 -29 15 38
125 0 0 -27 38 44 17 18 6 20 313 -34 -27 31 23 -27 46 9 -26 25 57 -28 55 39
126 0 0 -27 21 15 17 17 56 20 312 -34 -27 13 57 -27 28 35 -26 9 6 -28 37 25
127 0 0 -27 5 23 17 17 45 20 312 -34 -26 58 9 -27 12 40 -25 53 47 -28 20 53
128 0 0 -26 51 7 17 17 35 19 311 -34 -26 43 56 -26 58 20 -25 40 0 -28 6 2
129 0 0 -26 38 25 17 17 25 19 310 -33 -26 31 17 -26 45 36 -25 27 44 -27 52 51
130 0 0 -26 27 17 17 17 15 18 310 -33 -26 20 11 -26 34 25 -25 16 57 -27 41 17
131 0 0 -26 17 41 17 17 6 17 309 -32 -26 10 37 -26 24 48 -25 7 39 -27 31 21
132 0 0 -26 9 38 17 16 57 17 308 -32 -26 2 35 -26 16 43 -24 59 50 -27 23 1
133 0 0 -26 3 6 17 16 48 16 308 -32 -25 56 5 -26 10 10 -24 53 29 -27 16 17
134 0 0 -25 58 6 17 16 40 16 307 -31 -25 51 5 -26 5 9 -24 48 36 -27 11 9
135 0 0 -25 54 38 17 16 32 15 307 -31 -25 47 37 -26 1 40 -24 45 11 -27 7 36
136 0 0 -25 52 40 17 16 24 14 306 -30 -25 45 40 -25 59 43 -24 43 14 -27 5 39
137 0 0 -25 52 15 17 16 17 14 306 -29 -25 45 14 -25 59 18 -24 42 45 -27 5 17
138 0 0 -25 53 21 17 16 10 13 305 -29 -25 46 20 -26 0 25 -24 43 45 -27 6 31
139 0 0 -25 56 0 17 16 3 12 304 -28 -25 48 58 -26 3 5 -24 46 14 -27 9 22
140 0 0 -26 0 13 17 15 57 11 304 -28 -25 53 9 -26 7 19 -24 50 12 -27 13 50
141 0 0 -26 5 59 17 15 51 11 303 -27 -25 58 53 -26 13 7 -24 55 42 -27 19 57
142 0 0 -26 13 21 17 15 46 10 303 -26 -26 6 13 -26 20 31 -25 2 42 -27 27 43
143 0 0 -26 22 19 17 15 41 9 302 -25 -26 15 8 -26 29 32 -25 11 15 -27 37 11
144 0 0 -26 32 55 17 15 36 8 302 -25 -26 25 41 -26 40 12 -25 21 22 -27 48 21
145 0 0 -26 45 11 17 15 32 7 302 -24 -26 37 54 -26 52 31 -25 33 4 -28 1 17
146 0 0 -26 59 9 17 15 28 6 301 -23 -26 51 47 -27 6 33 -25 46 23 -28 15 59
147 0 0 -27 14 50 17 15 25 6 301 -22 -27 7 24 -27 22 19 .. .. .. -28 32 31
148 0 0 -27 32 17 17 15 22 5 300 -21 -27 24 46 -27 39 51 .. .. .. -28 50 56
149 0 0 -27 51 34 17 15 20 4 300 -21 -27 43 57 -27 59 14 .. .. .. -29 11 17
150 0 0 -28 12 43 17 15 18 3 299 -20 -28 4 59 -28 20 29 .. .. .. -29 33 38
151 0 0 -28 35 47 17 15 16 2 299 -19 -28 27 56 -28 43 41 .. .. .. -29 58 4
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
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