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Updated: 2010 OCT 04, 22:46 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Nov 29 UT, the 83 km diameter asteroid (348) May will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path passing near Launceston, Melbourne and moving west, just south of Adelaide. Then into WA where it passes over Norseman and Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 13.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
162 35 4 -49 0 0 15 15 12 19 354 -13 164 12 17 160 55 22 165 28 26 159 33 38
161 5 32 -48 0 0 15 15 23 20 356 -15 162 43 6 159 25 19 163 59 27 158 3 3
159 33 8 -47 0 0 15 15 34 21 357 -16 161 11 19 157 52 8 162 28 3 156 29 6
157 57 35 -46 0 0 15 15 47 22 359 -17 159 36 40 156 15 29 160 53 58 154 51 23
156 18 31 -45 0 0 15 16 1 23 0 -19 157 58 48 154 34 57 159 16 55 153 9 28
154 35 29 -44 0 0 15 16 16 24 2 -20 156 17 20 152 50 3 157 36 31 151 22 48
152 47 59 -43 0 0 15 16 31 25 4 -22 154 31 50 151 0 11 155 52 23 149 30 41
150 55 22 -42 0 0 15 16 48 26 6 -23 152 41 43 149 4 35 154 4 0 147 32 16
148 56 50 -41 0 0 15 17 7 27 8 -25 150 46 19 147 2 16 152 10 45 145 26 23
146 51 20 -40 0 0 15 17 26 28 10 -26 148 44 46 144 52 0 150 11 53 143 11 30
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
145 0 0 -39 9 48 15 17 44 28 12 -27 -38 17 43 -40 3 34 -37 37 8 -40 47 55
144 0 0 -38 43 55 15 17 54 28 13 -28 -37 52 18 -39 37 10 -37 12 5 -40 21 4
143 0 0 -38 18 52 15 18 3 29 14 -29 -37 27 42 -39 11 37 -36 47 49 -39 55 5
142 0 0 -37 54 39 15 18 13 29 15 -29 -37 3 54 -38 46 55 -36 24 20 -39 29 58
141 0 0 -37 31 14 15 18 23 29 16 -30 -36 40 55 -38 23 4 -36 1 39 -39 5 44
140 0 0 -37 8 39 15 18 33 29 17 -30 -36 18 43 -38 0 3 -35 39 44 -38 42 21
139 0 0 -36 46 53 15 18 42 29 18 -31 -35 57 19 -37 37 53 -35 18 37 -38 19 49
138 0 0 -36 25 56 15 18 52 29 19 -31 -35 36 43 -37 16 33 -34 58 16 -37 58 10
137 0 0 -36 5 48 15 19 2 29 20 -32 -35 16 55 -36 56 4 -34 38 43 -37 37 21
136 0 0 -35 46 29 15 19 12 29 21 -32 -34 57 55 -36 36 24 -34 19 57 -37 17 24
135 0 0 -35 27 59 15 19 21 29 22 -33 -34 39 43 -36 17 35 -34 1 58 -36 58 17
134 0 0 -35 10 18 15 19 31 29 23 -33 -34 22 18 -35 59 35 -33 44 47 -36 40 2
133 0 0 -34 53 25 15 19 41 29 24 -33 -34 5 42 -35 42 25 -33 28 22 -36 22 37
132 0 0 -34 37 22 15 19 50 29 25 -34 -33 49 53 -35 26 5 -33 12 44 -36 6 3
131 0 0 -34 22 7 15 20 0 29 26 -34 -33 34 52 -35 10 35 -32 57 54 -35 50 20
130 0 0 -34 7 40 15 20 9 29 27 -34 -33 20 39 -34 55 55 -32 43 51 -35 35 27
129 0 0 -33 54 2 15 20 19 29 28 -35 -33 7 13 -34 42 4 -32 30 34 -35 21 25
128 0 0 -33 41 13 15 20 28 29 29 -35 -32 54 36 -34 29 2 -32 18 5 -35 8 13
127 0 0 -33 29 13 15 20 38 28 30 -35 -32 42 46 -34 16 50 -32 6 23 -34 55 51
126 0 0 -33 18 0 15 20 47 28 31 -35 -32 31 43 -34 5 27 -31 55 28 -34 44 19
125 0 0 -33 7 37 15 20 56 28 32 -35 -32 21 28 -33 54 54 -31 45 20 -34 33 38
124 0 0 -32 58 2 15 21 5 28 33 -36 -32 12 2 -33 45 11 -31 35 59 -34 23 47
123 0 0 -32 49 15 15 21 14 27 34 -36 -32 3 22 -33 36 16 -31 27 25 -34 14 45
122 0 0 -32 41 17 15 21 23 27 35 -36 -31 55 31 -33 28 11 -31 19 39 -34 6 34
121 0 0 -32 34 8 15 21 31 26 36 -36 -31 48 27 -33 20 56 -31 12 39 -33 59 14
120 0 0 -32 27 47 15 21 40 26 37 -36 -31 42 11 -33 14 30 -31 6 27 -33 52 43
119 0 0 -32 22 15 15 21 48 26 38 -36 -31 36 43 -33 8 53 -31 1 2 -33 47 2
118 0 0 -32 17 32 15 21 57 25 38 -36 -31 32 3 -33 4 6 -30 56 25 -33 42 12
117 0 0 -32 13 37 15 22 5 25 39 -36 -31 28 11 -33 0 8 -30 52 35 -33 38 12
116 0 0 -32 10 31 15 22 13 24 40 -35 -31 25 7 -32 57 0 -30 49 32 -33 35 2
115 0 0 -32 8 14 15 22 21 24 41 -35 -31 22 51 -32 54 42 -30 47 17 -33 32 43
114 0 0 -32 6 46 15 22 29 23 42 -35 -31 21 23 -32 53 13 -30 45 49 -33 31 14
113 0 0 -32 6 6 15 22 36 23 42 -35 -31 20 44 -32 52 34 -30 45 10 -33 30 35
112 0 0 -32 6 16 15 22 44 22 43 -35 -31 20 53 -32 52 45 -30 45 18 -33 30 48
111 0 0 -32 7 16 15 22 51 22 44 -34 -31 21 50 -32 53 47 -30 46 14 -33 31 50
110 0 0 -32 9 4 15 22 58 21 45 -34 -31 23 36 -32 55 38 -30 47 58 -33 33 44
109 0 0 -32 11 42 15 23 5 20 45 -34 -31 26 11 -32 58 20 -30 50 30 -33 36 29
108 0 0 -32 15 10 15 23 12 20 46 -34 -31 29 34 -33 1 52 -30 53 50 -33 40 5
107 0 0 -32 19 28 15 23 18 19 47 -33 -31 33 47 -33 6 15 -30 57 59 -33 44 33
106 0 0 -32 24 35 15 23 24 18 47 -33 -31 38 49 -33 11 29 -31 2 56 -33 49 52
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2010 Oct 4.0
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