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Updated: 2010 OCT 29, 11:24 UT
Event Rank : 85
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2010 Dec 29 UT, the 67 km diameter asteroid (55) Pandora will occult a 12.6 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Australia from Sydney across northern New South Wales, north-eastern South Australia and south-western Northern Territory to Exmouth in Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.3 mag to 11.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
155 35 58 -37 0 0 16 5 1 13 334 -21 156 36 30 154 34 13 157 47 40 153 18 24
154 13 47 -36 0 0 16 5 7 15 335 -22 155 15 11 153 11 5 156 27 17 151 53 58
152 48 17 -35 0 0 16 5 14 16 336 -24 153 50 44 151 44 25 155 3 58 150 25 44
151 19 4 -34 0 0 16 5 21 17 337 -25 152 22 48 150 13 47 153 37 24 148 53 12
149 45 41 -33 0 0 16 5 30 19 338 -27 150 50 57 148 38 43 152 7 12 147 15 49
148 7 36 -32 0 0 16 5 39 20 339 -28 149 14 43 146 58 33 150 32 57 145 32 51
146 24 5 -31 0 0 16 5 49 22 340 -30 147 33 27 145 12 31 148 54 4 143 43 23
144 34 16 -30 0 0 16 6 1 23 342 -32 145 46 22 143 19 36 147 9 55 141 46 10
142 36 58 -29 0 0 16 6 14 24 343 -33 143 52 29 141 18 25 145 19 36 139 39 32
140 30 37 -28 0 0 16 6 29 26 345 -35 141 50 27 139 7 5 143 22 1 137 21 4
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
139 0 0 -27 19 53 16 6 40 27 346 -36 -26 43 30 -27 56 55 -26 0 40 -28 42 17
138 0 0 -26 54 38 16 6 47 28 347 -37 -26 18 34 -27 31 20 -25 36 5 -28 16 17
137 0 0 -26 30 26 16 6 54 28 348 -37 -25 54 40 -27 6 49 -25 12 31 -27 51 23
136 0 0 -26 7 15 16 7 2 29 348 -38 -25 31 46 -26 43 22 -24 49 56 -27 27 33
135 0 0 -25 45 7 16 7 10 29 349 -39 -25 9 53 -26 20 56 -24 28 21 -27 4 46
134 0 0 -25 23 59 16 7 17 30 350 -39 -24 49 0 -25 59 33 -24 7 45 -26 43 3
133 0 0 -25 3 52 16 7 25 30 351 -40 -24 29 7 -25 39 12 -23 48 8 -26 22 23
132 0 0 -24 44 45 16 7 33 31 352 -40 -24 10 13 -25 19 51 -23 29 29 -26 2 45
131 0 0 -24 26 38 16 7 41 31 353 -41 -23 52 19 -25 1 31 -23 11 49 -25 44 9
130 0 0 -24 9 31 16 7 49 31 354 -41 -23 35 23 -24 44 12 -22 55 6 -25 26 34
129 0 0 -23 53 23 16 7 57 32 355 -42 -23 19 25 -24 27 52 -22 39 21 -25 10 0
128 0 0 -23 38 13 16 8 5 32 356 -42 -23 4 26 -24 12 32 -22 24 32 -24 54 27
127 0 0 -23 24 2 16 8 13 32 356 -43 -22 50 24 -23 58 11 -22 10 41 -24 39 53
126 0 0 -23 10 49 16 8 22 33 357 -43 -22 37 20 -23 44 49 -21 57 47 -24 26 20
125 0 0 -22 58 34 16 8 30 33 358 -43 -22 25 13 -23 32 26 -21 45 49 -24 13 46
124 0 0 -22 47 17 16 8 38 33 359 -44 -22 14 2 -23 21 1 -21 34 47 -24 2 12
123 0 0 -22 36 57 16 8 47 33 0 -44 -22 3 49 -23 10 34 -21 24 41 -23 51 36
122 0 0 -22 27 34 16 8 55 33 1 -44 -21 54 32 -23 1 5 -21 15 31 -23 41 59
121 0 0 -22 19 8 16 9 3 34 2 -45 -21 46 12 -22 52 34 -21 7 17 -23 33 21
120 0 0 -22 11 39 16 9 12 34 3 -45 -21 38 48 -22 45 0 -20 59 58 -23 25 41
119 0 0 -22 5 7 16 9 20 34 4 -45 -21 32 20 -22 38 24 -20 53 34 -23 19 0
118 0 0 -21 59 32 16 9 28 34 5 -45 -21 26 48 -22 32 45 -20 48 6 -23 13 16
117 0 0 -21 54 53 16 9 37 34 6 -45 -21 22 12 -22 28 3 -20 43 33 -23 8 30
116 0 0 -21 51 10 16 9 45 34 7 -45 -21 18 31 -22 24 18 -20 39 56 -23 4 43
115 0 0 -21 48 24 16 9 53 34 8 -45 -21 15 47 -22 21 30 -20 37 13 -23 1 53
114 0 0 -21 46 34 16 10 2 33 9 -45 -21 13 58 -22 19 39 -20 35 25 -23 0 0
113 0 0 -21 45 41 16 10 10 33 10 -45 -21 13 5 -22 18 45 -20 34 33 -22 59 6
112 0 0 -21 45 44 16 10 18 33 11 -45 -21 13 7 -22 18 48 -20 34 35 -22 59 9
111 0 0 -21 46 43 16 10 26 33 12 -45 -21 14 6 -22 19 48 -20 35 32 -23 0 10
110 0 0 -21 48 38 16 10 34 33 13 -44 -21 16 0 -22 21 45 -20 37 25 -23 2 9
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2010 Nov 19.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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