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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (375) URSULA - 2011 JAN 02

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2010 DEC 22, 15:40 UT

Event Rank : 99

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Ursula Update Map


On 2011 Jan 02 UT, the 216 km diameter asteroid (375) Ursula will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across eastern Australia.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 12.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 17.1 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                        Longitude  Longitude  Longitude  Longitude
    148 12 26   -41  0  0   10 41 34     3    16   -10  146 23 24  150  3  9  145 46 41  150 41 12
    148 39 41   -40  0  0   10 41 34     4    16   -11  146 51 49  150 29 14  146 15 30  151  6 54
    149  7 33   -39  0  0   10 41 33     5    16   -12  147 20 47  150 56  1  146 44 50  151 33 19
    149 36  3   -38  0  0   10 41 32     6    15   -13  147 50 17  151 23 31  147 14 40  152  0 29
    150  5 11   -37  0  0   10 41 30     7    15   -14  148 20 20  151 51 44  147 45  2  152 28 23

    150 34 58   -36  0  0   10 41 28     8    15   -15  148 50 57  152 20 40  148 15 57  152 57  2
    151  5 23   -35  0  0   10 41 26     9    14   -16  149 22  9  152 50 20  148 47 25  153 26 26
    151 36 28   -34  0  0   10 41 24    11    14   -17  149 53 56  153 20 43  149 19 27  153 56 36
    152  8 14   -33  0  0   10 41 22    12    14   -18  150 26 20  153 51 52  149 52  4  154 27 32
    152 40 42   -32  0  0   10 41 19    13    13   -19  150 59 22  154 23 47  150 25 17  154 59 15

    153 13 52   -31  0  0   10 41 16    14    13   -20  151 33  2  154 56 28  150 59  7  155 31 47
    153 47 45   -30  0  0   10 41 13    15    13   -21  152  7 21  155 29 57  151 33 36  156  5  8
    154 22 24   -29  0  0   10 41 10    16    12   -22  152 42 22  156  4 15  152  8 44  156 39 20
    154 57 49   -28  0  0   10 41  6    17    12   -23  153 18  5  156 39 24  152 44 33  157 14 23
    155 34  1   -27  0  0   10 41  2    18    12   -24  153 54 31  157 15 24  153 21  5  157 50 20

    156 11  3   -26  0  0   10 40 58    19    11   -25  154 31 43  157 52 18  153 58 21  158 27 12
    156 48 55   -25  0  0   10 40 54    20    11   -26  155  9 41  158 30  7  154 36 22  159  5  0
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs

Prediction of 2010 Dec 22.0

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