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Updated: 2011 MAR 06, 07:39 UT
Event Rank : 61
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Mar 15 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (727) Nipponia will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a narrow path across the South Island of New Zealand, from Akaroa to Westport, and across Australia from Hervey Bay and Rockhampton across Queensland to (just south of) Normanton then across The Northern Territory to near Kununurra in northern Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.3 mag to 13.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
174 23 31 -46 0 0 10 42 1 23 8 -36 174 47 27 173 59 28 175 34 59 173 11 1
173 38 40 -45 0 0 10 42 9 24 9 -37 174 2 24 173 14 49 174 49 32 172 26 46
172 52 36 -44 0 0 10 42 17 24 10 -37 173 16 9 172 28 55 174 2 56 171 41 12
172 5 15 -43 0 0 10 42 26 25 11 -38 172 28 40 171 41 43 173 15 9 170 54 17
171 16 36 -42 0 0 10 42 35 26 12 -38 171 39 54 170 53 11 172 26 8 170 5 58
170 26 37 -41 0 0 10 42 44 27 13 -38 170 49 49 170 3 17 171 35 52 169 16 15
169 35 14 -40 0 0 10 42 54 28 13 -39 169 58 23 169 11 59 170 44 17 168 25 3
168 42 25 -39 0 0 10 43 5 29 14 -39 169 5 31 168 19 12 169 51 21 167 32 20
167 48 6 -38 0 0 10 43 15 29 16 -39 168 11 12 167 24 53 168 56 59 166 38 1
166 52 13 -37 0 0 10 43 27 30 17 -39 167 15 19 166 28 58 168 1 8 165 42 3
165 54 41 -36 0 0 10 43 38 31 18 -40 166 17 50 165 31 23 167 3 44 164 44 20
164 55 24 -35 0 0 10 43 50 32 19 -40 165 18 38 164 32 1 166 4 41 163 44 47
163 54 17 -34 0 0 10 44 3 32 20 -40 164 17 38 163 30 47 165 3 54 162 43 17
162 51 13 -33 0 0 10 44 15 33 21 -40 163 14 43 162 27 33 164 1 16 161 39 43
161 46 4 -32 0 0 10 44 29 34 23 -39 162 9 46 161 22 12 162 56 40 160 33 57
160 38 42 -31 0 0 10 44 43 34 24 -39 161 2 37 160 14 35 161 49 57 159 25 48
159 28 55 -30 0 0 10 44 57 35 26 -39 159 53 8 159 4 30 160 41 0 158 15 6
158 16 32 -29 0 0 10 45 12 35 27 -39 158 41 5 157 51 47 159 29 36 157 1 37
157 1 19 -28 0 0 10 45 27 36 29 -38 157 26 17 156 36 9 158 15 32 155 45 6
155 43 1 -27 0 0 10 45 43 36 30 -38 156 8 26 155 17 21 156 58 36 154 25 15
154 21 17 -26 0 0 10 45 59 36 32 -37 154 47 16 153 55 2 155 38 28 153 1 43
152 55 44 -25 0 0 10 46 16 36 34 -36 153 22 23 152 28 49 154 14 49 151 34 1
151 25 55 -24 0 0 10 46 34 36 35 -36 151 53 20 150 58 11 152 47 15 150 1 39
149 51 15 -23 0 0 10 46 53 36 37 -35 150 19 36 149 22 32 151 15 14 148 23 55
148 10 59 -22 0 0 10 47 12 36 39 -34 148 40 27 147 41 5 149 38 10 146 39 56
146 24 10 -21 0 0 10 47 32 36 41 -32 146 55 0 145 52 50 147 55 16 144 48 33
144 29 34 -20 0 0 10 47 53 36 43 -31 145 2 6 143 56 25 146 5 29 142 48 10
142 25 24 -19 0 0 10 48 16 35 45 -29 143 0 6 141 49 56 144 7 26 140 36 31
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
141 0 0 -18 21 41 10 48 31 34 47 -28 -18 5 43 -18 37 46 -17 34 6 -19 10 17
140 0 0 -17 56 12 10 48 41 34 48 -28 -17 40 21 -18 12 9 -17 8 59 -18 44 23
139 0 0 -17 31 51 10 48 51 34 48 -27 -17 16 8 -17 47 41 -16 45 0 -18 19 39
138 0 0 -17 8 40 10 49 1 33 49 -26 -16 53 3 -17 24 22 -16 22 9 -17 56 6
137 0 0 -16 46 36 10 49 11 33 50 -25 -16 31 6 -17 2 12 -16 0 24 -17 33 43
136 0 0 -16 25 40 10 49 21 32 51 -24 -16 10 16 -16 41 10 -15 39 46 -17 12 29
135 0 0 -16 5 52 10 49 30 32 52 -23 -15 50 33 -16 21 16 -15 20 14 -16 52 23
134 0 0 -15 47 10 10 49 40 31 53 -23 -15 31 57 -16 2 29 -15 1 47 -16 33 24
133 0 0 -15 29 34 10 49 49 31 53 -22 -15 14 26 -15 44 48 -14 44 26 -16 15 34
132 0 0 -15 13 4 10 49 58 30 54 -21 -14 58 0 -15 28 14 -14 28 9 -15 58 50
131 0 0 -14 57 40 10 50 7 30 55 -20 -14 42 40 -15 12 45 -14 12 56 -15 43 12
130 0 0 -14 43 20 10 50 15 29 55 -19 -14 28 24 -14 58 22 -13 58 48 -15 28 41
129 0 0 -14 30 5 10 50 24 28 56 -18 -14 15 13 -14 45 3 -13 45 43 -15 15 16
128 0 0 -14 17 55 10 50 32 28 57 -17 -14 3 6 -14 32 50 -13 33 42 -15 2 56
127 0 0 -14 6 49 10 50 40 27 57 -16 -13 52 3 -14 21 41 -13 22 45 -14 51 41
126 0 0 -13 56 47 10 50 48 26 58 -15 -13 42 3 -14 11 37 -13 12 50 -14 41 32
125 0 0 -13 47 50 10 50 55 25 58 -14 -13 33 7 -14 2 37 -13 3 58 -14 32 27
124 0 0 -13 39 56 10 51 3 25 59 -14 -13 25 15 -13 54 41 -12 56 10 -14 24 28
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2011 Mar 6.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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