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Updated: 2011 JUN 07, 22:39 UT
Event Rank : 82
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jun 12 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (1036) Ganymed will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Cygnus for observers along a narrow path across western South Australia and eastern Northern Territory, and across New Guinea, from Okaba (West Irian) to Aitape.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.1 mag to 11.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
129 1 7 -35 0 0 17 23 31 21 19 -61 129 12 31 128 49 43 129 27 6 128 35 6
129 29 28 -34 0 0 17 23 33 22 18 -61 129 40 43 129 18 13 129 55 8 129 3 48
129 57 18 -33 0 0 17 23 36 23 18 -61 130 8 25 129 46 11 130 22 39 129 31 57
130 24 40 -32 0 0 17 23 38 24 18 -61 130 35 39 130 13 40 130 49 43 129 59 36
130 51 35 -31 0 0 17 23 41 25 17 -61 131 2 26 130 40 43 131 16 21 130 26 48
131 18 5 -30 0 0 17 23 43 26 17 -60 131 28 49 131 7 20 131 42 35 130 53 34
131 44 12 -29 0 0 17 23 46 27 17 -60 131 54 50 131 33 33 132 8 26 131 19 56
132 9 57 -28 0 0 17 23 49 28 17 -60 132 20 29 131 59 25 132 33 58 131 45 56
132 35 23 -27 0 0 17 23 52 29 16 -59 132 45 49 132 24 57 132 59 10 132 11 36
133 0 31 -26 0 0 17 23 55 30 16 -59 133 10 51 132 50 11 133 24 5 132 36 56
133 25 22 -25 0 0 17 23 58 31 16 -59 133 35 37 133 15 7 133 48 45 133 2 0
133 49 58 -24 0 0 17 24 2 33 16 -58 134 0 8 133 39 48 134 13 9 133 26 47
134 14 20 -23 0 0 17 24 5 34 15 -58 134 24 25 134 4 15 134 37 20 133 51 20
134 38 29 -22 0 0 17 24 9 35 15 -57 134 48 30 134 28 28 135 1 20 134 15 39
135 2 27 -21 0 0 17 24 12 36 15 -56 135 12 24 134 52 30 135 25 8 134 39 46
135 26 15 -20 0 0 17 24 16 37 15 -56 135 36 8 135 16 22 135 48 47 135 3 43
135 49 54 -19 0 0 17 24 20 38 14 -55 135 59 43 135 40 4 136 12 18 135 27 30
136 13 24 -18 0 0 17 24 23 39 14 -55 136 23 10 136 3 38 136 35 41 135 51 8
136 36 48 -17 0 0 17 24 27 40 14 -54 136 46 31 136 27 5 136 58 58 136 14 39
137 0 6 -16 0 0 17 24 31 41 14 -53 137 9 46 136 50 26 137 22 9 136 38 4
137 23 20 -15 0 0 17 24 36 42 14 -53 137 32 57 137 13 42 137 45 16 137 1 23
137 46 29 -14 0 0 17 24 40 43 13 -52 137 56 4 137 36 54 138 8 21 137 24 38
138 9 36 -13 0 0 17 24 44 44 13 -51 138 19 9 138 0 3 138 31 23 137 47 50
138 32 41 -12 0 0 17 24 48 45 13 -51 138 42 12 138 23 11 138 54 23 138 11 0
138 55 46 -11 0 0 17 24 53 46 13 -50 139 5 15 138 46 17 139 17 24 138 34 9
139 18 51 -10 0 0 17 24 57 47 12 -49 139 28 18 139 9 23 139 40 25 138 57 17
139 41 57 - 9 0 0 17 25 2 48 12 -48 139 51 23 139 32 31 140 3 28 139 20 26
140 5 5 - 8 0 0 17 25 7 49 12 -48 140 14 30 139 55 40 140 26 34 139 43 37
140 28 16 - 7 0 0 17 25 12 51 11 -47 140 37 41 140 18 52 140 49 43 140 6 50
140 51 32 - 6 0 0 17 25 16 52 11 -46 141 0 55 140 42 8 141 12 57 140 30 7
141 14 52 - 5 0 0 17 25 21 53 11 -45 141 24 15 141 5 29 141 36 17 140 53 29
141 38 19 - 4 0 0 17 25 26 54 11 -44 141 47 42 141 28 56 141 59 43 141 16 56
142 1 53 - 3 0 0 17 25 32 55 10 -43 142 11 15 141 52 30 142 23 16 141 40 30
142 25 34 - 2 0 0 17 25 37 56 10 -43 142 34 57 142 16 12 142 46 58 142 4 12
142 49 25 - 1 0 0 17 25 42 57 9 -42 142 58 48 142 40 2 143 10 50 142 28 2
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jun 8.0
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