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Updated: 2011 MAY 02, 04:14 UT
Event Rank : 8
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jun 29 UT, the 258 km diameter asteroid (10199) Chariklo will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a fairly broad but extremely uncertain path across New Zealand and Australia. The predicted path includes most of the North Island of New Zealand, and just skirts the eastern coast of Australia, but the one sigma limit includes all of New Zealand and Australia roughly east of Broome in Western Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.9 mag to 18.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 14.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
130 44 23 8 0 0 10 7 57 32 151 -8 132 10 14 129 18 40 157 21 5 104 58 41
131 25 26 7 0 0 10 7 53 33 151 -9 132 51 11 129 59 52 158 4 25 105 46 17
132 6 32 6 0 0 10 7 49 35 151 -10 133 32 13 130 41 4 158 48 37 106 33 8
132 47 43 5 0 0 10 7 44 36 151 -11 134 13 21 131 22 17 159 33 42 107 19 17
133 28 58 4 0 0 10 7 40 37 151 -12 134 54 37 132 3 34 160 19 45 108 4 48
134 10 22 3 0 0 10 7 35 38 151 -13 135 36 3 132 44 57 161 6 47 108 49 42
134 51 55 2 0 0 10 7 30 39 151 -14 136 17 41 133 26 26 161 54 53 109 34 2
135 33 39 1 0 0 10 7 25 41 152 -15 136 59 32 134 8 5 162 44 6 110 17 52
136 15 36 0 0 0 10 7 20 42 152 -16 137 41 39 134 49 54 163 34 30 111 1 13
136 57 49 - 1 0 0 10 7 15 43 152 -17 138 24 3 135 31 56 164 26 11 111 44 8
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
137 0 0 - 1 3 6 10 7 15 43 152 -17 0 59 20 - 3 4 33 42 45 25 -36 57 31
138 0 0 - 2 27 41 10 7 7 45 152 -18 - 0 26 1 - 4 28 23 40 53 40 -38 9 55
139 0 0 - 3 51 21 10 6 59 46 152 -20 - 1 50 31 - 5 51 15 39 1 27 -39 20 31
140 0 0 - 5 14 2 10 6 51 48 152 -21 - 3 14 4 - 7 13 5 37 9 5 -40 29 16
141 0 0 - 6 35 37 10 6 43 50 152 -23 - 4 36 33 - 8 33 47 35 16 54 -41 36 11
142 0 0 - 7 56 2 10 6 35 51 153 -24 - 5 57 54 - 9 53 17 33 25 12 -42 41 14
143 0 0 - 9 15 12 10 6 27 53 153 -25 - 7 18 3 -11 11 30 31 34 13 -43 44 25
144 0 0 -10 33 3 10 6 19 55 153 -27 - 8 36 55 -12 28 23 29 44 13 -44 45 44
145 0 0 -11 49 33 10 6 10 56 153 -28 - 9 54 26 -13 43 53 27 55 24 -45 45 11
146 0 0 -13 4 37 10 6 2 58 153 -29 -11 10 33 -14 57 57 26 7 57 -46 42 48
147 0 0 -14 18 14 10 5 53 59 154 -31 -12 25 13 -16 10 32 24 22 3 -47 38 35
148 0 0 -15 30 22 10 5 45 61 154 -32 -13 38 25 -17 21 36 22 37 50 -48 32 34
149 0 0 -16 40 58 10 5 36 62 154 -33 -14 50 6 -18 31 9 20 55 25 -49 24 47
150 0 0 -17 50 1 10 5 28 64 155 -34 -16 0 14 -19 39 9 19 14 54 -50 15 15
151 0 0 -18 57 30 10 5 20 65 155 -36 -17 8 48 -20 45 34 17 36 22 -51 4 1
152 0 0 -20 3 25 10 5 11 66 155 -37 -18 15 49 -21 50 25 15 59 53 -51 51 7
153 0 0 -21 7 45 10 5 3 68 156 -38 -19 21 14 -22 53 41 14 25 30 -52 36 36
154 0 0 -22 10 29 10 4 55 69 157 -39 -20 25 3 -23 55 22 12 53 15 -53 20 29
155 0 0 -23 11 39 10 4 46 70 157 -40 -21 27 18 -24 55 28 11 23 11 -54 2 50
156 0 0 -24 11 15 10 4 38 71 158 -41 -22 27 58 -25 54 0 9 55 17 -54 43 40
157 0 0 -25 9 16 10 4 30 73 159 -42 -23 27 3 -26 50 59 8 29 35 -55 23 4
158 0 0 -26 5 44 10 4 22 74 161 -43 -24 24 34 -27 46 25 7 6 4 -56 1 2
159 0 0 -27 0 40 10 4 15 75 162 -44 -25 20 32 -28 40 20 5 44 44 -56 37 39
160 0 0 -27 54 5 10 4 7 76 164 -45 -26 14 58 -29 32 44 4 25 35 -57 12 56
161 0 0 -28 45 59 10 3 59 77 166 -46 -27 7 54 -30 23 39 3 8 34 -57 46 56
162 0 0 -29 36 25 10 3 52 78 169 -47 -27 59 19 -31 13 6 1 53 41 -58 19 42
163 0 0 -30 25 24 10 3 44 79 171 -48 -28 49 17 -32 1 7 0 40 55 -58 51 16
164 0 0 -31 12 57 10 3 37 80 175 -49 -29 37 47 -32 47 43 - 0 29 47 -59 21 40
165 0 0 -31 59 5 10 3 30 81 179 -49 -30 24 52 -33 32 55 - 1 38 27 -59 50 57
166 0 0 -32 43 51 10 3 23 81 184 -50 -31 10 33 -34 16 46 - 2 45 6 -60 19 10
167 0 0 -33 27 15 10 3 16 82 190 -51 -31 54 52 -34 59 16 - 3 49 46 -60 46 20
168 0 0 -34 9 20 10 3 9 82 196 -52 -32 37 50 -35 40 28 - 4 52 30 -61 12 30
169 0 0 -34 50 6 10 3 3 83 204 -52 -33 19 29 -36 20 23 - 5 53 20 -61 37 42
170 0 0 -35 29 37 10 2 56 83 212 -53 -33 59 51 -36 59 3 - 6 52 18 -62 1 57
171 0 0 -36 7 53 10 2 49 83 220 -54 -34 38 57 -37 36 30 - 7 49 26 -62 25 18
172 0 0 -36 44 56 10 2 43 83 228 -55 -35 16 48 -38 12 45 - 8 44 48 -62 47 47
173 0 0 -37 20 48 10 2 37 82 235 -55 -35 53 27 -38 47 49 - 9 38 24 -63 9 26
174 0 0 -37 55 30 10 2 31 82 241 -56 -36 28 56 -39 21 46 -10 30 17 -63 30 16
175 0 0 -38 29 4 10 2 25 82 247 -56 -37 3 15 -39 54 35 -11 20 30 -63 50 18
176 0 0 -39 1 31 10 2 19 81 252 -57 -37 36 26 -40 26 19 -12 9 5 -64 9 36
177 0 0 -39 32 53 10 2 13 81 256 -57 -38 8 32 -40 56 59 -12 56 4 -64 28 9
178 0 0 -40 3 12 10 2 7 80 259 -58 -38 39 32 -41 26 37 -13 41 29 -64 46 0
179 0 0 -40 32 30 10 2 1 79 262 -58 -39 9 30 -41 55 14 -14 25 22 -65 3 10
180 0 0 -41 0 46 10 1 56 79 264 -59 -39 38 26 -42 22 51 -15 7 46 -65 19 41
-179 0 0 -41 28 4 10 1 50 78 266 -59 -40 6 21 -42 49 31 -15 48 42 -65 35 33
-178 0 0 -41 54 24 10 1 45 77 268 -60 -40 33 18 -43 15 14 -16 28 12 -65 50 48
-177 0 0 -42 19 47 10 1 40 77 269 -60 -40 59 18 -43 40 2 -17 6 19 -66 5 27
-176 0 0 -42 44 16 10 1 34 76 270 -61 -41 24 21 -44 3 56 -17 43 4 -66 19 31
-175 0 0 -43 7 50 10 1 29 75 271 -61 -41 48 29 -44 26 57 -18 18 28 -66 33 2
Uncertainty in time = +/- 239 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jan 8.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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