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Updated: 2012 OCT 25, 21:43 UT
Event Rank : 12
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2012 Nov 02 UT, the 15 km diameter asteroid (5358) 1992 QH will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a quite narrow but uncertain south-to-north path at low altitude passing near Townsville in Queensland, and later over Papua New Guinea.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.1 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
149 2 50 -49 0 0 16 53 56 1 2 -14 149 9 16 148 56 23 ... .. .. 147 44 25
149 4 42 -48 0 0 16 53 56 2 2 -15 149 11 1 148 58 23 ... .. .. 147 47 48
149 6 1 -47 0 0 16 53 58 3 2 -15 149 12 13 148 59 49 150 21 9 147 50 33
149 6 48 -46 0 0 16 53 59 4 2 -16 149 12 53 149 0 42 150 20 35 147 52 40
149 7 4 -45 0 0 16 54 1 5 2 -17 149 13 3 149 1 5 150 19 36 147 54 13
149 6 51 -44 0 0 16 54 4 6 2 -17 149 12 44 149 0 58 150 18 11 147 55 13
149 6 10 -43 0 0 16 54 7 7 2 -18 149 11 58 149 0 22 150 16 21 147 55 40
149 5 2 -42 0 0 16 54 10 8 2 -19 149 10 44 148 59 19 150 14 8 147 55 37
149 3 27 -41 0 0 16 54 15 9 2 -19 149 9 4 148 57 50 150 11 32 147 55 4
149 1 27 -40 0 0 16 54 19 10 2 -20 149 6 59 148 55 54 150 8 33 147 54 3
148 59 2 -39 0 0 16 54 24 11 2 -21 149 4 30 148 53 34 150 5 13 147 52 34
148 56 14 -38 0 0 16 54 30 12 2 -21 149 1 37 148 50 50 150 1 32 147 50 39
148 53 2 -37 0 0 16 54 36 13 2 -22 148 58 21 148 47 42 149 57 30 147 48 17
148 49 27 -36 0 0 16 54 42 14 2 -23 148 54 43 148 44 12 149 53 9 147 45 31
148 45 31 -35 0 0 16 54 49 15 2 -23 148 50 43 148 40 19 149 48 27 147 42 20
148 41 13 -34 0 0 16 54 56 16 2 -24 148 46 21 148 36 5 149 43 26 147 38 45
148 36 34 -33 0 0 16 55 4 17 2 -25 148 41 39 148 31 29 149 38 6 147 34 47
148 31 34 -32 0 0 16 55 12 18 2 -25 148 36 35 148 26 32 149 32 28 147 30 26
148 26 14 -31 0 0 16 55 21 19 2 -26 148 31 12 148 21 15 149 26 31 147 25 42
148 20 34 -30 0 0 16 55 30 20 2 -27 148 25 29 148 15 38 149 20 16 147 20 37
148 14 34 -29 0 0 16 55 40 21 2 -27 148 19 27 148 9 41 149 13 43 147 15 10
148 8 14 -28 0 0 16 55 50 22 2 -28 148 13 5 148 3 24 149 6 52 147 9 23
148 1 36 -27 0 0 16 56 1 23 2 -29 148 6 24 147 56 48 148 59 44 147 3 14
147 54 38 -26 0 0 16 56 12 24 2 -29 147 59 24 147 49 53 148 52 19 146 56 45
147 47 22 -25 0 0 16 56 24 25 2 -30 147 52 6 147 42 39 148 44 36 146 49 55
147 39 48 -24 0 0 16 56 36 26 2 -31 147 44 29 147 35 6 148 36 36 146 42 46
147 31 55 -23 0 0 16 56 48 27 2 -31 147 36 34 147 27 15 148 28 20 146 35 16
147 23 43 -22 0 0 16 57 1 28 3 -32 147 28 21 147 19 6 148 19 46 146 27 27
147 15 14 -21 0 0 16 57 14 29 3 -33 147 19 50 147 10 38 148 10 56 146 19 19
147 6 26 -20 0 0 16 57 28 30 3 -33 147 11 0 147 1 52 148 1 49 146 10 51
146 57 21 -19 0 0 16 57 42 31 3 -34 147 1 53 146 52 48 147 52 25 146 2 3
146 47 57 -18 0 0 16 57 56 32 3 -34 146 52 28 146 43 26 147 42 44 145 52 57
146 38 16 -17 0 0 16 58 11 33 3 -35 146 42 46 146 33 46 147 32 47 145 43 32
146 28 17 -16 0 0 16 58 27 34 3 -36 146 32 45 146 23 48 147 22 33 145 33 47
146 18 0 -15 0 0 16 58 43 35 3 -36 146 22 27 146 13 32 147 12 3 145 23 44
146 7 25 -14 0 0 16 58 59 36 4 -37 146 11 51 146 2 58 147 1 15 145 13 21
145 56 32 -13 0 0 16 59 15 37 4 -38 146 0 58 145 52 6 146 50 11 145 2 39
145 45 21 -12 0 0 16 59 32 38 4 -38 145 49 46 145 40 56 146 38 51 144 51 39
145 33 52 -11 0 0 16 59 50 39 4 -39 145 38 17 145 29 28 146 27 13 144 40 19
145 22 6 -10 0 0 17 0 8 40 4 -39 145 26 29 145 17 42 146 15 18 144 28 40
145 10 1 - 9 0 0 17 0 26 41 4 -40 145 14 23 145 5 38 146 3 6 144 16 42
144 57 37 - 8 0 0 17 0 44 42 5 -41 145 2 0 144 53 15 145 50 37 144 4 25
144 44 56 - 7 0 0 17 1 3 43 5 -41 144 49 18 144 40 34 145 37 50 143 51 48
144 31 55 - 6 0 0 17 1 22 44 5 -42 144 36 17 144 27 34 145 24 46 143 38 52
144 18 36 - 5 0 0 17 1 42 45 5 -42 144 22 58 144 14 15 145 11 24 143 25 35
144 4 58 - 4 0 0 17 2 2 46 5 -43 144 9 20 144 0 37 144 57 44 143 11 59
143 51 1 - 3 0 0 17 2 22 47 6 -43 143 55 22 143 46 40 144 43 46 142 58 3
143 36 45 - 2 0 0 17 2 43 48 6 -44 143 41 6 143 32 23 144 29 30 142 43 46
143 22 9 - 1 0 0 17 3 4 49 6 -44 143 26 30 143 17 47 144 14 55 142 29 9
143 7 13 0 0 0 17 3 25 49 7 -45 143 11 34 143 2 51 144 0 1 142 14 10
142 51 57 1 0 0 17 3 47 50 7 -45 142 56 18 142 47 35 143 44 48 141 58 51
142 36 20 2 0 0 17 4 9 51 7 -46 142 40 42 142 31 58 143 29 15 141 43 10
142 20 22 3 0 0 17 4 31 52 8 -46 142 24 45 142 16 0 143 13 23 141 27 7
142 4 4 4 0 0 17 4 54 53 8 -47 142 8 27 141 59 41 142 57 11 141 10 42
141 47 23 5 0 0 17 5 17 54 9 -47 141 51 47 141 43 0 142 40 38 140 53 54
Uncertainty in time = +/- 21 secs
Prediction of 2012 Oct 26.0
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