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Updated: 2013 JAN 26, 16:32 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Feb 06 UT, the 121 km diameter asteroid (92) Undina will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path over north Island New Zealand. In Australia the path runs from Queensland to northern Western Australia, from near Brisbane to Kalbarri.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 11.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
-177 14 6 -44 0 0 11 50 3 22 359 -31 -175 23 28 -179 7 58 -174 12 3 179 34 55
-178 26 18 -43 0 0 11 50 10 23 360 -32 -176 35 27 179 39 28 -175 23 57 178 22 0
-179 40 39 -42 0 0 11 50 17 24 1 -32 -177 49 22 178 24 31 -176 37 39 177 6 33
179 2 42 -41 0 0 11 50 24 25 2 -33 -179 5 22 177 7 0 -177 53 20 175 48 20
177 43 31 -40 0 0 11 50 33 26 3 -34 179 36 20 175 46 41 -179 11 8 174 27 7
176 21 34 -39 0 0 11 50 41 27 5 -35 178 15 34 174 23 18 179 28 44 173 2 35
174 56 36 -38 0 0 11 50 50 27 6 -36 176 52 4 172 56 31 178 6 3 171 34 23
173 28 16 -37 0 0 11 51 0 28 8 -36 175 25 34 171 25 58 176 40 33 170 2 5
171 56 12 -36 0 0 11 51 10 29 9 -37 173 55 43 169 51 11 175 11 58 168 25 10
170 19 55 -35 0 0 11 51 21 30 11 -38 172 22 8 168 11 35 173 39 54 166 42 57
168 38 51 -34 0 0 11 51 33 31 13 -38 170 44 21 166 26 27 172 3 58 164 54 36
166 52 15 -33 0 0 11 51 45 31 15 -38 169 1 47 164 34 52 170 23 38 162 58 59
164 59 13 -32 0 0 11 51 58 32 17 -39 167 13 41 162 35 35 168 38 16 160 54 36
162 58 30 -31 0 0 11 52 13 32 19 -39 165 19 7 160 26 57 166 47 3 158 39 20
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
161 0 0 -30 5 8 11 52 26 32 21 -39 -28 57 45 -31 14 57 -28 14 27 -32 2 30
160 0 0 -29 38 53 11 52 33 33 22 -39 -28 32 4 -30 48 3 -27 49 8 -31 35 7
159 0 0 -29 13 37 11 52 40 33 24 -39 -28 7 21 -30 22 11 -27 24 46 -31 8 49
158 0 0 -28 49 22 11 52 47 33 25 -39 -27 43 38 -29 57 21 -27 1 21 -30 43 34
157 0 0 -28 26 7 11 52 54 33 26 -38 -27 20 52 -29 33 33 -26 38 53 -30 19 22
156 0 0 -28 3 51 11 53 1 33 27 -38 -26 59 4 -29 10 46 -26 17 23 -29 56 13
155 0 0 -27 42 35 11 53 8 32 28 -38 -26 38 14 -28 49 1 -25 56 49 -29 34 7
154 0 0 -27 22 17 11 53 15 32 29 -38 -26 18 22 -28 28 16 -25 37 12 -29 13 2
153 0 0 -27 2 59 11 53 22 32 30 -37 -25 59 27 -28 8 31 -25 18 31 -28 52 59
152 0 0 -26 44 39 11 53 28 32 31 -37 -25 41 28 -27 49 47 -25 0 46 -28 33 58
151 0 0 -26 27 17 11 53 35 32 32 -37 -25 24 27 -27 32 2 -24 43 57 -28 15 57
150 0 0 -26 10 53 11 53 42 32 33 -36 -25 8 22 -27 15 17 -24 28 5 -27 58 57
149 0 0 -25 55 27 11 53 48 31 34 -36 -24 53 14 -26 59 32 -24 13 7 -27 42 57
148 0 0 -25 40 58 11 53 55 31 35 -35 -24 39 2 -26 44 45 -23 59 6 -27 27 57
147 0 0 -25 27 27 11 54 1 31 36 -35 -24 25 47 -26 30 57 -23 46 0 -27 13 57
146 0 0 -25 14 53 11 54 7 30 36 -34 -24 13 27 -26 18 8 -23 33 49 -27 0 57
145 0 0 -25 3 17 11 54 13 30 37 -34 -24 2 3 -26 6 17 -23 22 33 -26 48 56
144 0 0 -24 52 37 11 54 20 30 38 -33 -23 51 35 -25 55 25 -23 12 12 -26 37 55
143 0 0 -24 42 54 11 54 26 29 39 -33 -23 42 3 -25 45 31 -23 2 46 -26 27 53
142 0 0 -24 34 8 11 54 32 29 40 -32 -23 33 27 -25 36 34 -22 54 16 -26 18 49
141 0 0 -24 26 19 11 54 38 28 41 -32 -23 25 46 -25 28 36 -22 46 40 -26 10 45
140 0 0 -24 19 27 11 54 43 28 42 -31 -23 19 0 -25 21 36 -22 39 59 -26 3 39
139 0 0 -24 13 31 11 54 49 27 42 -30 -23 13 11 -25 15 34 -22 34 13 -25 57 32
138 0 0 -24 8 32 11 54 55 27 43 -30 -23 8 16 -25 10 29 -22 29 21 -25 52 24
137 0 0 -24 4 29 11 55 0 26 44 -29 -23 4 17 -25 6 23 -22 25 25 -25 48 14
136 0 0 -24 1 23 11 55 5 26 45 -28 -23 1 14 -25 3 14 -22 22 23 -25 45 3
135 0 0 -23 59 14 11 55 11 25 45 -27 -22 59 6 -25 1 3 -22 20 17 -25 42 51
134 0 0 -23 58 1 11 55 16 24 46 -27 -22 57 54 -24 59 50 -22 19 5 -25 41 38
133 0 0 -23 57 46 11 55 21 24 47 -26 -22 57 38 -24 59 35 -22 18 48 -25 41 23
132 0 0 -23 58 27 11 55 26 23 47 -25 -22 58 17 -25 0 18 -22 19 26 -25 42 7
131 0 0 -24 0 5 11 55 30 22 48 -24 -22 59 52 -25 1 59 -22 20 59 -25 43 51
130 0 0 -24 2 40 11 55 35 22 49 -24 -23 2 23 -25 4 38 -22 23 28 -25 46 33
129 0 0 -24 6 12 11 55 39 21 49 -23 -23 5 51 -25 8 16 -22 26 52 -25 50 15
128 0 0 -24 10 42 11 55 44 20 50 -22 -23 10 14 -25 12 52 -22 31 12 -25 54 56
127 0 0 -24 16 9 11 55 48 19 50 -21 -23 15 34 -25 18 28 -22 36 27 -26 0 37
126 0 0 -24 22 34 11 55 52 19 51 -20 -23 21 51 -25 25 2 -22 42 38 -26 7 18
125 0 0 -24 29 57 11 55 56 18 51 -20 -23 29 4 -25 32 36 -22 49 46 -26 14 59
124 0 0 -24 38 18 11 56 0 17 52 -19 -23 37 14 -25 41 9 -22 57 49 -26 23 41
123 0 0 -24 47 38 11 56 3 16 53 -18 -23 46 22 -25 50 42 -23 6 50 -26 33 23
122 0 0 -24 57 57 11 56 7 16 53 -17 -23 56 27 -26 1 15 -23 16 46 -26 44 6
121 0 0 -25 9 14 11 56 10 15 54 -16 -24 7 30 -26 12 48 -23 27 40 -26 55 51
120 0 0 -25 21 31 11 56 13 14 54 -15 -24 19 31 -26 25 22 -23 39 32 -27 8 38
119 0 0 -25 34 47 11 56 16 13 55 -14 -24 32 30 -26 38 58 -23 52 20 -27 22 26
118 0 0 -25 49 4 11 56 19 12 55 -13 -24 46 28 -26 53 34 -24 6 7 -27 37 18
117 0 0 -26 4 21 11 56 21 11 56 -12 -25 1 25 -27 9 13 -24 20 52 -27 53 12
116 0 0 -26 20 39 11 56 24 10 56 -12 -25 17 21 -27 25 54 -24 36 35 -28 10 10
115 0 0 -26 37 57 11 56 26 9 57 -11 -25 34 18 -27 43 38 -24 53 17 -28 28 12
114 0 0 -26 56 18 11 56 28 9 57 -10 -25 52 14 -28 2 25 -25 10 58 -28 47 18
113 0 0 -27 15 40 11 56 30 8 58 -9 -26 11 10 -28 22 16 -25 29 39 -29 7 30
112 0 0 -27 36 5 11 56 31 7 58 -8 -26 31 8 -28 43 12 -25 49 19 -29 28 47
111 0 0 -27 57 33 11 56 33 6 59 -7 -26 52 6 -29 5 12 -26 10 0 -29 51 10
110 0 0 -28 20 5 11 56 34 5 59 -6 -27 14 7 -29 28 17 -26 31 42 -30 14 40
109 0 0 -28 43 40 11 56 35 4 59 -5 -27 37 10 -29 52 29 -26 54 25 -30 39 18
108 0 0 -29 8 20 11 56 35 3 60 -4 -28 1 15 -30 17 47 .. .. .. -31 5 3
107 0 0 -29 34 4 11 56 36 2 60 -3 -28 26 23 -30 44 12 .. .. .. -31 31 58
106 0 0 -30 0 55 11 56 36 1 61 -2 -28 52 35 -31 11 45 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jan 27.0
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