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Updated: 2014 Jan 06, 23:34 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jan 13 UT, the 217 km diameter asteroid (532) Herculina will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path passing just off the northern coast of New Zealand and over Queensland shortly after sunset.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.1 mag to 9.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 18.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 38396914 by 532 Herculina on 2014 Jan 13
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
-176 46 16 -37 0 0 8 59 53 32 19 -18 -173 27 38 179 41 55 -171 56 8 177 54 27
-178 17 39 -36 0 0 9 0 7 33 21 -18 -174 56 8 178 6 29 -173 23 33 176 16 30
-179 52 38 -35 0 0 9 0 21 33 23 -18 -176 27 35 176 26 35 -174 53 41 174 33 31
178 28 21 -34 0 0 9 0 36 34 25 -18 -178 2 21 174 41 33 -176 26 50 172 44 43
176 44 43 -33 0 0 9 0 52 34 27 -18 -179 40 49 172 50 37 -178 3 21 170 49 5
174 55 49 -32 0 0 9 1 8 34 29 -17 178 36 31 170 52 42 -179 43 40 168 45 17
173 0 44 -31 0 0 9 1 26 34 31 -17 176 49 3 168 46 23 178 31 41 166 31 25
170 58 22 -30 0 0 9 1 44 34 33 -16 174 56 2 166 29 42 176 42 6 164 4 45
169 0 0 -29 5 40 9 2 1 34 36 -15 -27 11 42 -31 6 16 -26 19 0 -32 6 54
168 0 0 -28 39 31 9 2 10 34 37 -15 -26 46 25 -30 39 4 -25 54 6 -31 39 9
167 0 0 -28 14 18 9 2 19 34 38 -14 -26 22 2 -30 12 52 -25 30 5 -31 12 23
166 0 0 -27 50 0 9 2 27 33 39 -14 -25 58 32 -29 47 38 -25 6 55 -30 46 39
165 0 0 -27 26 38 9 2 36 33 40 -13 -25 35 55 -29 23 22 -24 44 38 -30 21 54
164 0 0 -27 4 12 9 2 44 33 41 -13 -25 14 12 -29 0 5 -24 23 13 -29 58 9
163 0 0 -26 42 40 9 2 53 33 42 -12 -24 53 21 -28 37 46 -24 2 39 -29 35 24
162 0 0 -26 22 4 9 3 1 32 43 -11 -24 33 23 -28 16 24 -23 42 58 -29 13 38
161 0 0 -26 2 22 9 3 9 32 44 -11 -24 14 18 -27 56 0 -23 24 9 -28 52 50
160 0 0 -25 43 35 9 3 17 32 45 -10 -23 56 5 -27 36 33 -23 6 11 -28 33 2
159 0 0 -25 25 43 9 3 25 31 46 -10 -23 38 46 -27 18 3 -22 49 5 -28 14 11
158 0 0 -25 8 45 9 3 33 31 47 -9 -23 22 18 -27 0 30 -22 32 51 -27 56 19
157 0 0 -24 52 42 9 3 40 30 47 -8 -23 6 44 -26 43 54 -22 17 29 -27 39 25
156 0 0 -24 37 33 9 3 48 30 48 -8 -22 52 1 -26 28 15 -22 2 58 -27 23 29
155 0 0 -24 23 19 9 3 55 29 49 -7 -22 38 11 -26 13 31 -21 49 19 -27 8 30
154 0 0 -24 9 58 9 4 3 29 50 -6 -22 25 14 -25 59 45 -21 36 31 -26 54 29
153 0 0 -23 57 32 9 4 10 28 51 -6 -22 13 8 -25 46 54 -21 24 35 -26 41 26
152 0 0 -23 46 0 9 4 17 28 51 -5 -22 1 56 -25 35 0 -21 13 31 -26 29 19
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 7.0
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