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Updated: 2014 Jan 07, 00:06 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jan 18 UT, the 554 km diameter asteroid (2) Pallas will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing over Dunedin and Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.0 mag to 7.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 95.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6071-00037-1 by 2 Pallas on 2014 Jan 18
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
167 18 11 -48 5 32 13 38 14 58 42 -21 163 13 23 -49 0 39 171 8 57 -47 6 4 162 43 0 -49 6 56 171 35 47 -46 58 40
166 46 45 -46 42 6 13 38 40 59 44 -22 162 48 31 -47 36 11 170 31 52 -45 43 48 162 18 58 -47 42 21 170 58 4 -45 36 33
166 15 18 -45 19 28 13 39 6 59 47 -24 162 23 4 -46 12 34 169 55 13 -44 22 16 161 54 18 -46 18 38 170 20 50 -44 15 9
165 43 49 -43 57 34 13 39 32 60 49 -25 161 57 5 -44 49 43 169 18 56 -43 1 23 161 29 2 -44 55 41 169 44 1 -42 54 24
165 12 15 -42 36 19 13 39 58 61 52 -27 161 30 34 -43 27 35 168 42 57 -41 41 6 161 3 10 -43 33 26 169 7 33 -41 34 14
164 40 36 -41 15 39 13 40 24 61 54 -28 161 3 34 -42 6 4 168 7 12 -40 21 22 160 36 46 -42 11 49 168 31 20 -40 14 37
164 8 49 -39 55 30 13 40 49 62 57 -29 160 36 4 -40 45 6 167 31 37 -39 2 6 160 9 49 -40 50 47 167 55 21 -38 55 28
163 36 52 -38 35 50 13 41 15 62 60 -31 160 8 5 -39 24 39 166 56 10 -37 43 16 159 42 21 -39 30 14 167 19 30 -37 36 44
163 4 45 -37 16 34 13 41 41 63 62 -32 159 39 37 -38 4 38 166 20 47 -36 24 49 159 14 21 -38 10 8 166 43 45 -36 18 22
162 32 25 -35 57 40 13 42 7 63 65 -33 159 10 41 -36 45 1 165 45 26 -35 6 41 158 45 50 -36 50 26 166 8 3 -35 0 20
161 59 51 -34 39 4 13 42 33 63 68 -35 158 41 14 -35 25 43 165 10 3 -33 48 49 158 16 47 -35 31 4 165 32 21 -33 42 33
161 27 0 -33 20 44 13 42 58 63 71 -36 158 11 17 -34 6 43 164 34 36 -32 31 11 157 47 13 -34 11 58 164 56 37 -32 25 1
160 53 52 -32 2 36 13 43 24 63 74 -37 157 40 49 -32 47 56 163 59 3 -31 13 44 157 17 5 -32 53 6 164 20 47 -31 7 38
160 20 23 -30 44 38 13 43 50 63 77 -39 157 9 50 -31 29 19 163 23 20 -29 56 25 156 46 24 -31 34 26 163 44 49 -29 50 24
159 46 33 -29 26 46 13 44 16 63 80 -40 156 38 16 -30 10 51 162 47 26 -28 39 11 156 15 8 -30 15 53 163 8 41 -28 33 15
159 12 20 -28 8 59 13 44 42 63 83 -41 156 6 9 -28 52 27 162 11 17 -27 22 1 155 43 17 -28 57 25 162 32 19 -27 16 9
158 37 40 -26 51 13 13 45 8 63 85 -43 155 33 25 -27 34 5 161 34 52 -26 4 50 155 10 47 -27 38 59 161 55 41 -25 59 3
158 2 32 -25 33 25 13 45 33 62 88 -44 155 0 3 -26 15 42 160 58 7 -24 47 37 154 37 38 -26 20 32 161 18 45 -24 41 54
157 26 54 -24 15 33 13 45 59 62 91 -45 154 26 0 -24 57 16 160 20 59 -23 30 19 154 3 48 -25 2 1 160 41 28 -23 24 40
156 50 42 -22 57 33 13 46 25 61 93 -47 153 51 16 -23 38 43 159 43 27 -22 12 53 153 29 15 -23 43 24 160 3 46 -22 7 18
156 13 54 -21 39 24 13 46 51 61 96 -48 153 15 47 -22 19 59 159 5 26 -20 55 17 152 53 55 -22 24 36 159 25 37 -20 49 46
155 36 28 -20 21 1 13 47 17 60 98 -49 152 39 30 -21 1 3 158 26 55 -19 37 26 152 17 47 -21 5 36 158 46 58 -19 31 59
154 58 20 -19 2 22 13 47 42 59 100 -51 152 2 22 -19 41 51 157 47 49 -18 19 19 151 40 47 -19 46 20 158 7 45 -18 13 56
154 19 25 -17 43 24 13 48 8 59 103 -52 151 24 20 -18 22 19 157 8 4 -17 0 53 151 2 51 -18 26 44 157 27 55 -16 55 33
153 39 42 -16 24 3 13 48 34 58 105 -53 150 45 20 -17 2 24 156 27 38 -15 42 3 150 23 56 -17 6 44 156 47 24 -15 36 47
152 59 5 -15 4 15 13 49 0 57 107 -54 150 5 18 -15 42 2 155 46 26 -14 22 48 149 43 58 -15 46 18 156 6 8 -14 17 35
152 17 30 -13 43 58 13 49 26 56 108 -56 149 24 9 -14 21 9 155 4 24 -13 3 2 149 2 52 -14 25 21 155 24 2 -12 57 54
151 34 51 -12 23 6 13 49 51 55 110 -57 148 41 47 -12 59 42 154 21 26 -11 42 43 148 20 32 -13 3 49 154 41 1 -11 37 38
150 51 3 -11 1 37 13 50 17 54 112 -58 147 58 6 -11 37 35 153 37 27 -10 21 47 147 36 52 -11 41 37 153 57 1 -10 16 45
150 6 0 - 9 39 24 13 50 43 53 113 -60 147 13 0 -10 14 43 152 52 22 - 9 0 8 146 51 45 -10 18 41 153 11 55 - 8 55 10
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 7.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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