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Updated: 2013 OCT 08, 23:37 UT
Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Feb 17 UT, the 207 km diameter asteroid (372) Palma will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a quite wide north-to-south across Australia centred from near Darwin (low altitude) to South Australia between Port Lincoln and Eucla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.0 mag to 13.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
125 11 39 - 4 55 17 15 8 7 3 133 -70 130 45 30 - 9 29 9 ... .. .. .. .. .. 133 49 5 -11 40 47 ... .. .. .. .. ..
127 30 9 - 7 57 57 15 8 12 7 133 -68 131 35 27 -11 6 53 ... .. .. .. .. .. 134 22 37 -13 2 22 ... .. .. .. .. ..
128 44 36 - 9 59 40 15 8 16 9 133 -67 132 14 51 -12 34 37 ... .. .. .. .. .. 134 50 37 -14 18 44 ... .. .. .. .. ..
129 37 15 -11 40 40 15 8 21 11 132 -66 132 46 51 -13 55 23 124 43 24 - 7 44 25 135 14 12 -15 30 59 ... .. .. .. .. ..
130 17 37 -13 10 2 15 8 25 12 132 -64 133 13 16 -15 10 55 126 20 12 -10 8 11 135 34 8 -16 39 53 ... .. .. .. .. ..
130 49 43 -14 31 37 15 8 29 14 132 -63 133 35 13 -16 22 20 127 20 38 -11 57 22 135 50 57 -17 45 57 ... .. .. .. .. ..
131 15 43 -15 47 31 15 8 34 15 131 -62 133 53 29 -17 30 23 128 4 34 -13 30 53 136 5 3 -18 49 36 123 37 15 - 9 56 39
131 36 54 -16 59 1 15 8 38 16 131 -61 134 8 35 -18 35 37 128 38 19 -14 54 52 136 16 45 -19 51 9 124 54 9 -12 2 20
131 54 9 -18 6 56 15 8 43 17 131 -60 134 20 57 -19 38 26 129 4 56 -16 12 12 136 26 17 -20 50 51 125 44 39 -13 42 59
132 8 5 -19 11 55 15 8 47 18 131 -59 134 30 53 -20 39 9 129 26 6 -17 24 32 136 33 50 -21 48 54 126 21 33 -15 10 49
132 19 7 -20 14 22 15 8 52 19 130 -58 134 38 36 -21 38 1 129 42 53 -18 32 55 136 39 33 -22 45 28 126 49 37 -16 30 24
132 27 35 -21 14 38 15 8 56 19 130 -57 134 44 18 -22 35 14 129 56 2 -19 38 4 136 43 34 -23 40 41 127 11 16 -17 44 5
132 33 44 -22 13 0 15 9 0 20 130 -56 134 48 8 -23 30 58 130 6 2 -20 40 29 136 45 59 -24 34 40 127 27 55 -18 53 15
132 37 47 -23 9 38 15 9 5 21 129 -55 134 50 13 -24 25 21 130 13 16 -21 40 34 136 46 52 -25 27 31 127 40 29 -19 58 47
132 39 52 -24 4 45 15 9 9 21 129 -54 134 50 39 -25 18 29 130 18 1 -22 38 36 136 46 18 -26 19 19 127 49 35 -21 1 19
132 40 7 -24 58 27 15 9 14 22 129 -53 134 49 30 -26 10 28 130 20 32 -23 34 50 136 44 20 -27 10 8 127 55 40 -22 1 18
132 38 38 -25 50 52 15 9 18 22 129 -52 134 46 52 -27 1 24 130 20 57 -24 29 25 136 41 0 -28 0 2 127 59 4 -22 59 3
132 35 31 -26 42 6 15 9 23 23 128 -51 134 42 45 -27 51 20 130 19 25 -25 22 32 136 36 20 -28 49 4 128 0 2 -23 54 52
132 30 48 -27 32 14 15 9 27 23 128 -51 134 37 14 -28 40 21 130 16 3 -26 14 17 136 30 23 -29 37 18 127 58 46 -24 48 55
132 24 33 -28 21 21 15 9 31 24 128 -50 134 30 20 -29 28 28 130 10 56 -27 4 47 136 23 9 -30 24 44 127 55 25 -25 41 24
132 16 49 -29 9 28 15 9 36 24 128 -49 134 22 5 -30 15 45 130 4 8 -27 54 7 136 14 39 -31 11 27 127 50 6 -26 32 26
132 7 37 -29 56 41 15 9 40 25 127 -48 134 12 29 -31 2 15 129 55 42 -28 42 22 136 4 54 -31 57 27 127 42 55 -27 22 8
131 56 59 -30 43 1 15 9 45 25 127 -47 134 1 33 -31 47 59 129 45 41 -29 29 35 135 53 55 -32 42 46 127 33 57 -28 10 35
131 44 55 -31 28 31 15 9 49 25 127 -47 133 49 18 -32 32 58 129 34 6 -30 15 49 135 41 41 -33 27 26 127 23 14 -28 57 52
131 31 28 -32 13 13 15 9 54 26 127 -46 133 35 44 -33 17 15 129 21 0 -31 1 8 135 28 11 -34 11 28 127 10 50 -29 44 3
131 16 36 -32 57 7 15 9 58 26 126 -45 133 20 51 -34 0 51 129 6 24 -31 45 32 135 13 27 -34 54 53 126 56 47 -30 29 10
131 0 20 -33 40 17 15 10 2 26 126 -44 133 4 39 -34 43 47 128 50 17 -32 29 4 134 57 26 -35 37 41 126 41 6 -31 13 18
130 42 39 -34 22 42 15 10 7 26 126 -44 132 47 6 -35 26 3 128 32 40 -33 11 46 134 40 8 -36 19 54 126 23 48 -31 56 27
130 23 34 -35 4 24 15 10 11 27 126 -43 132 28 12 -36 7 41 128 13 34 -33 53 39 134 21 33 -37 1 31 126 4 54 -32 38 39
130 3 3 -35 45 23 15 10 16 27 126 -42 132 7 57 -36 48 41 127 52 57 -34 34 43 134 1 39 -37 42 34 125 44 24 -33 19 56
129 41 6 -36 25 40 15 10 20 27 125 -41 131 46 18 -37 29 2 127 30 50 -35 15 0 133 40 24 -38 23 3 125 22 18 -34 0 20
129 17 41 -37 5 15 15 10 25 27 125 -41 131 23 15 -38 8 46 127 7 11 -35 54 30 133 17 47 -39 2 58 124 58 36 -34 39 50
128 52 47 -37 44 9 15 10 29 27 125 -40 130 58 46 -38 47 53 126 42 0 -36 33 13 132 53 47 -39 42 18 124 33 16 -35 18 27
128 26 22 -38 22 21 15 10 34 27 125 -39 130 32 49 -39 26 22 126 15 15 -37 11 9 132 28 22 -40 21 4 124 6 19 -35 56 11
127 58 26 -38 59 50 15 10 38 27 125 -39 130 5 23 -40 4 13 125 46 54 -37 48 18 132 1 29 -40 59 16 123 37 43 -36 33 4
127 28 56 -39 36 38 15 10 42 27 125 -38 129 36 25 -40 41 26 125 16 57 -38 24 41 131 33 6 -41 36 53 123 7 26 -37 9 3
126 57 49 -40 12 43 15 10 47 27 125 -37 129 5 53 -41 18 1 124 45 21 -39 0 15 131 3 11 -42 13 54 122 35 27 -37 44 9
126 25 5 -40 48 4 15 10 51 27 125 -37 128 33 46 -41 53 56 124 12 4 -39 35 1 130 31 42 -42 50 20 122 1 45 -38 18 21
125 50 40 -41 22 41 15 10 56 27 125 -36 128 0 0 -42 29 11 123 37 5 -40 8 58 129 58 36 -43 26 9 121 26 17 -38 51 37
125 14 32 -41 56 32 15 11 0 27 125 -35 127 24 32 -43 3 44 123 0 21 -40 42 5 129 23 50 -44 1 20 120 49 1 -39 23 58
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 20.0
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