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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (536) MERAPI - 2014 Feb 17

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2014 JAN 19, 16:51 UT

Event Rank : 90

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Merapi Update Map


On 2014 Feb 17 UT, the 169 km diameter asteroid (536) Merapi will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Coma Berenices for observers along a path across Western Australia from Eucla to Karratha, Newman and Port Hedland.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 13.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.5 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                        Longitude  Longitude  Longitude  Longitude
    136  5  1   -44  0  0   16 54 55    20     5   -29  137 53 25  134 14 17  139 43 57  132 16 21
    135 30 44   -43  0  0   16 55  0    21     6   -30  137 18  6  133 41  2  139  7 32  131 44 12
    134 55 22   -42  0  0   16 55  5    22     7   -32  136 41 47  133  6 36  138 30 14  131 10 44
    134 18 54   -41  0  0   16 55 10    23     7   -33  136  4 30  132 30 58  137 52  4  130 35 56
    133 41 21   -40  0  0   16 55 16    24     8   -34  135 26 12  131 54  8  137 12 58  129 59 49

    133  2 40   -39  0  0   16 55 22    25     9   -35  134 46 52  131 16  4  136 32 58  129 22 22
    132 22 50   -38  0  0   16 55 28    26     9   -36  134  6 30  130 36 45  135 52  1  128 43 33
    131 41 51   -37  0  0   16 55 35    27    10   -37  133 25  4  129 56 10  135 10  5  128  3 21
    130 59 40   -36  0  0   16 55 41    28    11   -38  132 42 33  129 14 18  134 27  9  127 21 45
    130 16 16   -35  0  0   16 55 48    29    12   -39  131 58 53  128 31  5  133 43 12  126 38 41

    129 31 36   -34  0  0   16 55 56    29    12   -40  131 14  4  127 46 31  132 58 10  125 54  8
    128 45 37   -33  0  0   16 56  3    30    13   -42  130 28  2  127  0 31  132 12  1  125  8  2
    127 58 17   -32  0  0   16 56 11    31    14   -43  129 40 45  126 13  3  131 24 44  124 20 20
    127  9 31   -31  0  0   16 56 19    32    15   -44  128 52 10  125 24  3  130 36 14  123 30 58
    126 19 18   -30  0  0   16 56 28    33    16   -45  128  2 13  124 33 27  129 46 29  122 39 51

    125 27 31   -29  0  0   16 56 36    33    17   -46  127 10 50  123 41  9  128 55 24  121 46 54
    124 34  6   -28  0  0   16 56 45    34    18   -48  126 17 56  122 47  6  128  2 57  120 52  1
    123 38 59   -27  0  0   16 56 55    35    19   -49  125 23 28  121 51 11  127  9  2  119 55  5
    122 42  1   -26  0  0   16 57  4    36    21   -50  124 27 19  120 53 16  126 13 34  118 55 57
    121 43  8   -25  0  0   16 57 14    36    22   -51  123 29 23  119 53 14  125 16 28  117 54 29

    120 42 11   -24  0  0   16 57 24    37    23   -53  122 29 34  118 50 55  124 17 38  116 50 30
    119 39  0   -23  0  0   16 57 35    37    24   -54  121 27 42  117 46 11  123 16 57  115 43 48
    118 33 25   -22  0  0   16 57 46    38    26   -55  120 23 40  116 38 47  122 14 17  114 34  7
    117 25 16   -21  0  0   16 57 57    38    27   -56  119 17 17  115 28 30  121  9 28  113 21 11
    116 14 16   -20  0  0   16 58  9    39    29   -57  118  8 22  114 15  3  120  2 21  112  4 39

    115  0 11   -19  0  0   16 58 21    39    30   -59  116 56 39  112 58  7  118 52 44  110 44  6
    113 42 40   -18  0  0   16 58 34    39    32   -60  115 41 54  111 37 17  117 40 23  109 19  0
    112 21 20   -17  0  0   16 58 47    39    34   -61  114 23 47  110 12  3  116 25  3  107 48 43
    110 55 43   -16  0  0   16 59  1    39    35   -62  113  1 54  108 41 49  115  6 25  106 12 25
    109 25 13   -15  0  0   16 59 15    39    37   -63  111 35 50  107  5 49  113 44  6  104 29  0

Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs

Prediction of 2014 Jan 20.0

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