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Updated: 2014 Feb 25, 04:24 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Apr 10 UT, the 104 km diameter asteroid (98) Ianthe will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across central Queensland, central New South Wales, eastern Victoria and eastern Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.4 mag to 13.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7894-01339-1 by 98 Ianthe on 2014 Apr 10
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
139 16 54 -10 0 0 16 48 53 44 141 -59 138 44 51 139 48 51 138 15 55 140 17 32
139 37 44 -11 0 0 16 49 2 45 140 -59 139 5 39 140 9 44 138 36 42 140 38 27
139 58 17 -12 0 0 16 49 11 46 140 -58 139 26 9 140 30 20 138 57 9 140 59 6
140 18 34 -13 0 0 16 49 20 47 140 -58 139 46 22 140 50 40 139 17 19 141 19 29
140 38 34 -14 0 0 16 49 30 48 139 -57 140 6 18 141 10 45 139 37 12 141 39 38
140 58 20 -15 0 0 16 49 40 49 139 -57 140 25 59 141 30 36 139 56 48 141 59 34
141 17 52 -16 0 0 16 49 49 50 138 -56 140 45 25 141 50 14 140 16 8 142 19 17
141 37 10 -17 0 0 16 49 59 51 137 -56 141 4 37 142 9 39 140 35 14 142 38 49
141 56 16 -18 0 0 16 50 9 52 137 -55 141 23 35 142 28 53 140 54 6 142 58 9
142 15 11 -19 0 0 16 50 20 52 136 -55 141 42 21 142 47 55 141 12 45 143 17 20
142 33 54 -20 0 0 16 50 30 53 135 -54 142 0 56 143 6 48 141 31 11 143 36 21
142 52 28 -21 0 0 16 50 40 54 135 -54 142 19 19 143 25 32 141 49 26 143 55 13
143 10 52 -22 0 0 16 50 51 55 134 -53 142 37 33 143 44 7 142 7 30 144 13 58
143 29 8 -23 0 0 16 51 1 56 133 -52 142 55 37 144 2 34 142 25 23 144 32 36
143 47 16 -24 0 0 16 51 12 57 132 -52 143 13 32 144 20 55 142 43 8 144 51 8
144 5 17 -25 0 0 16 51 23 58 131 -51 143 31 20 144 39 9 143 0 43 145 9 35
144 23 12 -26 0 0 16 51 34 59 130 -51 143 49 1 144 57 19 143 18 11 145 27 58
144 41 1 -27 0 0 16 51 45 60 129 -50 144 6 35 145 15 24 143 35 31 145 46 17
144 58 47 -28 0 0 16 51 56 61 128 -49 144 24 4 145 33 25 143 52 45 146 4 33
145 16 28 -29 0 0 16 52 7 61 126 -49 144 41 28 145 51 24 144 9 54 146 22 48
145 34 6 -30 0 0 16 52 18 62 125 -48 144 58 48 146 9 21 144 26 57 146 41 1
145 51 43 -31 0 0 16 52 30 63 124 -47 145 16 4 146 27 17 144 43 56 146 59 15
146 9 18 -32 0 0 16 52 41 64 122 -47 145 33 19 146 45 13 145 0 52 147 17 30
146 26 52 -33 0 0 16 52 53 65 120 -46 145 50 31 147 3 10 145 17 45 147 35 47
146 44 28 -34 0 0 16 53 4 65 119 -45 146 7 44 147 21 9 145 34 36 147 54 6
147 2 5 -35 0 0 16 53 16 66 117 -45 146 24 56 147 39 10 145 51 27 148 12 30
147 19 44 -36 0 0 16 53 27 67 115 -44 146 42 9 147 57 16 146 8 17 148 30 59
147 37 27 -37 0 0 16 53 39 67 113 -43 146 59 25 148 15 26 146 25 8 148 49 34
147 55 15 -38 0 0 16 53 51 68 110 -42 147 16 43 148 33 43 146 42 0 149 8 17
148 13 8 -39 0 0 16 54 3 68 108 -42 147 34 6 148 52 6 146 58 55 149 27 9
148 31 8 -40 0 0 16 54 14 69 106 -41 147 51 34 149 10 39 147 15 54 149 46 10
148 49 16 -41 0 0 16 54 26 69 103 -40 148 9 8 149 29 21 147 32 58 150 5 23
149 7 34 -42 0 0 16 54 38 70 100 -40 148 26 50 149 48 15 147 50 7 150 24 50
149 26 2 -43 0 0 16 54 50 70 97 -39 148 44 40 150 7 21 148 7 24 150 44 30
149 44 43 -44 0 0 16 55 2 71 94 -38 149 2 41 150 26 42 148 24 48 151 4 27
150 3 37 -45 0 0 16 55 14 71 91 -37 149 20 53 150 46 19 148 42 23 151 24 43
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2014 Feb 25.0
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