|
|
Updated: 2014 Apr 11, 21:53 UT
Event Rank : 50
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Apr 17 UT, the 49 km diameter asteroid (910) Anneliese will occult a 8.7 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across northern West Australia, south-western Northern Territory, northern and eastern South Australia, western Victoria and eastern Tasmania, passing near Port Augusta, Horsham, Ballarat, Geelong and Launceston.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.2 mag to 15.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1948-02034-1 by 910 Anneliese on 2014 Apr 17
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
151 12 39 -45 0 0 11 26 18 8 326 -43 150 46 29 151 38 51 149 40 6 152 45 31
150 7 42 -44 0 0 11 26 16 9 326 -43 149 42 2 150 33 24 148 36 54 151 38 45
149 4 11 -43 0 0 11 26 14 10 327 -43 148 38 59 149 29 24 147 35 1 150 33 32
148 1 58 -42 0 0 11 26 12 11 328 -43 147 37 12 148 26 45 146 34 20 149 29 45
147 0 56 -41 0 0 11 26 9 13 329 -43 146 36 35 147 25 19 145 34 44 148 27 15
146 1 0 -40 0 0 11 26 6 14 329 -42 145 37 1 146 24 59 144 36 7 147 25 57
145 2 2 -39 0 0 11 26 3 15 330 -42 144 38 24 145 25 40 143 38 23 146 25 42
144 3 57 -38 0 0 11 25 59 16 331 -42 143 40 39 144 27 15 142 41 28 145 26 26
143 6 41 -37 0 0 11 25 55 18 331 -41 142 43 41 143 29 40 141 45 16 144 28 3
142 10 8 -36 0 0 11 25 51 19 332 -41 141 47 26 142 32 50 140 49 43 143 30 28
141 14 14 -35 0 0 11 25 47 20 333 -41 140 51 48 141 36 40 139 54 45 142 33 37
140 18 55 -34 0 0 11 25 42 21 333 -40 139 56 43 140 41 5 139 0 18 141 37 24
139 24 6 -33 0 0 11 25 37 23 334 -40 139 2 8 139 46 3 138 6 17 140 41 45
138 29 43 -32 0 0 11 25 32 24 334 -39 138 7 58 138 51 28 137 12 39 139 46 37
137 35 44 -31 0 0 11 25 26 25 335 -39 137 14 11 137 57 16 136 19 20 138 51 55
136 42 4 -30 0 0 11 25 20 26 336 -38 136 20 41 137 3 26 135 26 18 137 57 36
135 48 40 -29 0 0 11 25 14 28 336 -37 135 27 27 136 9 52 134 33 28 137 3 37
134 55 29 -28 0 0 11 25 8 29 337 -37 134 34 25 135 16 32 133 40 48 136 9 53
134 2 27 -27 0 0 11 25 1 30 338 -36 133 41 31 134 23 22 132 48 14 135 16 22
133 9 32 -26 0 0 11 24 55 31 338 -35 132 48 43 133 30 19 131 55 43 134 23 1
132 16 39 -25 0 0 11 24 47 33 339 -35 131 55 57 132 37 20 131 3 12 133 29 45
131 23 47 -24 0 0 11 24 40 34 340 -34 131 3 10 131 44 22 130 10 39 132 36 32
130 30 51 -23 0 0 11 24 32 35 340 -33 130 10 19 130 51 22 129 17 59 131 43 20
129 37 50 -22 0 0 11 24 24 36 341 -32 129 17 21 129 58 17 128 25 10 130 50 4
128 44 39 -21 0 0 11 24 16 37 342 -32 128 24 13 129 5 3 127 32 10 129 56 42
127 51 16 -20 0 0 11 24 8 39 342 -31 127 30 53 128 11 38 126 38 54 129 3 10
126 57 38 -19 0 0 11 23 59 40 343 -30 126 37 15 127 17 58 125 45 19 128 9 26
126 3 41 -18 0 0 11 23 50 41 344 -29 125 43 19 126 24 0 124 51 24 127 15 26
125 9 22 -17 0 0 11 23 40 42 345 -28 124 49 0 125 29 41 123 57 3 126 21 7
124 14 38 -16 0 0 11 23 31 43 345 -27 123 54 14 124 34 58 123 2 13 125 26 26
123 19 25 -15 0 0 11 23 21 45 346 -26 122 58 59 123 39 47 122 6 52 124 31 19
122 23 39 -14 0 0 11 23 11 46 347 -25 122 3 11 122 44 5 121 10 55 123 35 44
121 27 18 -13 0 0 11 23 0 47 348 -24 121 6 45 121 47 47 120 14 19 122 39 35
120 30 16 -12 0 0 11 22 49 48 349 -23 120 9 39 120 50 50 119 16 59 121 42 50
119 32 31 -11 0 0 11 22 38 49 350 -22 119 11 47 119 53 10 118 18 50 120 45 24
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2014 Apr 12.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]