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Updated: 2014 MAY 20, 18:25 UT
Event Rank : 77
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jun 15 UT, the 89 km diameter asteroid (978) Aidamina will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Serpens for observers along a path across Australia from Sydney across central New South Wales, north-eastern South Australia and into Western Australia at decreasing elevation, and across the South Island of New Zealand near Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.8 mag to 14.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
170 38 25 -48 0 0 11 43 2 31 35 -63 172 2 9 169 13 8 173 58 41 167 9 9
169 28 52 -47 0 0 11 43 13 32 37 -63 170 52 16 168 3 53 172 48 15 166 0 13
168 17 42 -46 0 0 11 43 25 32 38 -64 169 40 54 166 52 52 171 36 29 164 49 18
167 4 47 -45 0 0 11 43 36 32 40 -64 168 27 55 165 39 58 170 23 18 163 36 16
165 50 0 -44 0 0 11 43 48 32 42 -64 167 13 12 164 25 2 169 8 34 162 20 58
164 33 12 -43 0 0 11 44 1 32 43 -64 165 56 37 163 7 54 167 52 10 161 3 13
163 14 11 -42 0 0 11 44 13 33 45 -64 164 38 0 161 48 25 166 33 57 159 42 49
161 52 48 -41 0 0 11 44 26 33 47 -64 163 17 10 160 26 20 165 13 44 158 19 30
160 28 48 -40 0 0 11 44 39 32 48 -64 161 53 56 159 1 25 163 51 22 156 53 1
159 1 55 -39 0 0 11 44 53 32 50 -64 160 28 2 157 33 24 162 26 37 155 23 0
157 31 52 -38 0 0 11 45 6 32 52 -63 158 59 13 156 1 54 160 59 16 153 49 2
155 58 16 -37 0 0 11 45 20 32 54 -62 157 27 8 154 26 32 159 29 0 152 10 37
154 20 42 -36 0 0 11 45 35 31 56 -62 155 51 26 152 46 48 157 55 31 150 27 8
152 38 36 -35 0 0 11 45 49 31 58 -61 154 11 37 151 2 2 156 18 25 148 37 45
150 51 19 -34 0 0 11 46 4 30 60 -59 152 27 8 149 11 29 154 37 14 146 41 27
148 58 0 -33 0 0 11 46 20 29 62 -58 150 37 15 147 14 6 152 51 23 144 36 49
146 57 32 -32 0 0 11 46 35 28 63 -57 148 41 3 145 8 30 151 0 9 142 21 53
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
145 0 0 -31 5 12 11 46 50 27 65 -55 -30 15 36 -31 56 6 -29 7 12 -33 10 49
144 0 0 -30 38 39 11 46 57 27 66 -54 -29 49 28 -31 29 6 -28 41 36 -32 43 7
143 0 0 -30 13 3 11 47 4 26 67 -53 -29 24 15 -31 3 4 -28 16 54 -32 16 26
142 0 0 -29 48 24 11 47 11 25 68 -53 -28 59 59 -30 38 1 -27 53 7 -31 50 45
141 0 0 -29 24 43 11 47 18 25 69 -52 -28 36 39 -30 13 57 -27 30 14 -31 26 5
140 0 0 -29 1 58 11 47 24 24 69 -51 -28 14 14 -29 50 51 -27 8 16 -31 2 25
139 0 0 -28 40 11 11 47 31 23 70 -50 -27 52 46 -29 28 43 -26 47 12 -30 39 46
138 0 0 -28 19 20 11 47 37 23 71 -49 -27 32 13 -29 7 33 -26 27 3 -30 18 6
137 0 0 -27 59 26 11 47 43 22 72 -48 -27 12 36 -28 47 21 -26 7 48 -29 57 25
136 0 0 -27 40 28 11 47 49 21 72 -47 -26 53 54 -28 28 6 -25 49 27 -29 37 44
135 0 0 -27 22 27 11 47 54 20 73 -47 -26 36 8 -28 9 49 -25 32 0 -29 19 3
134 0 0 -27 5 22 11 48 0 20 73 -46 -26 19 17 -27 52 30 -25 15 28 -29 1 20
133 0 0 -26 49 14 11 48 5 19 74 -45 -26 3 22 -27 36 7 -24 59 49 -28 44 36
132 0 0 -26 34 2 11 48 10 18 75 -44 -25 48 22 -27 20 43 -24 45 5 -28 28 52
131 0 0 -26 19 47 11 48 14 17 75 -43 -25 34 17 -27 6 15 -24 31 15 -28 14 6
130 0 0 -26 6 27 11 48 19 17 76 -42 -25 21 8 -26 52 45 -24 18 20 -28 0 18
129 0 0 -25 54 4 11 48 23 16 76 -41 -25 8 54 -26 40 11 -24 6 18 -27 47 29
128 0 0 -25 42 37 11 48 27 15 77 -40 -24 57 36 -26 28 35 -23 55 11 -27 35 39
127 0 0 -25 32 6 11 48 31 14 77 -39 -24 47 13 -26 17 56 -23 44 58 -27 24 47
126 0 0 -25 22 31 11 48 35 13 78 -38 -24 37 45 -26 8 14 -23 35 40 -27 14 54
125 0 0 -25 13 53 11 48 38 12 78 -37 -24 29 13 -25 59 29 -23 27 15 -27 5 59
124 0 0 -25 6 11 11 48 42 12 79 -37 -24 21 36 -25 51 42 -23 19 45 -26 58 3
123 0 0 -24 59 25 11 48 45 11 79 -36 -24 14 54 -25 44 51 -23 13 10 -26 51 6
122 0 0 -24 53 36 11 48 47 10 80 -35 -24 9 9 -25 38 58 -23 7 29 -26 45 6
121 0 0 -24 48 43 11 48 50 9 80 -34 -24 4 19 -25 34 2 -23 2 43 -26 40 6
120 0 0 -24 44 47 11 48 52 8 81 -33 -24 0 24 -25 30 4 -22 58 51 -26 36 4
119 0 0 -24 41 47 11 48 54 7 81 -32 -23 57 26 -25 27 3 -22 55 54 -26 33 1
118 0 0 -24 39 44 11 48 56 6 82 -31 -23 55 24 -25 25 0 -22 53 52 -26 30 58
117 0 0 -24 38 39 11 48 58 5 82 -30 -23 54 18 -25 23 54 .. .. .. -26 29 53
116 0 0 -24 38 30 11 48 59 5 82 -29 -23 54 8 -25 23 47 .. .. .. -26 29 47
115 0 0 -24 39 19 11 49 0 4 83 -29 -23 54 54 -25 24 38 .. .. .. -26 30 41
114 0 0 -24 41 5 11 49 1 3 83 -28 -23 56 38 -25 26 27 .. .. .. -26 32 35
113 0 0 -24 43 48 11 49 2 2 84 -27 -23 59 18 -25 29 14 .. .. .. -26 35 29
112 0 0 -24 47 30 11 49 2 1 84 -26 -24 2 55 -25 33 1 .. .. .. -26 39 22
111 0 0 -24 52 10 11 49 2 0 85 -25 -24 7 29 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2014 May 21.0
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