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Updated: 2014 Jun 05, 01:10 UT
Event Rank : 89
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jul 22 UT, the 129 km diameter asteroid (762) Pulcova will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a path across eastern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.4 mag to 14.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1174-01678-1 by 762 Pulcova on 2014 Jul 22
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
144 52 45 -43 53 26 21 2 18 23 313 -8 143 54 3 -43 59 1 145 52 33 -43 48 12 142 50 39 -44 5 33 146 59 46 -43 42 53
142 5 16 -41 23 5 21 2 41 26 314 -9 141 11 3 -41 29 7 143 0 18 -41 17 20 140 12 15 -41 36 4 144 1 50 -41 11 21
139 47 25 -39 3 21 21 3 4 29 316 -10 138 56 24 -39 9 38 140 39 4 -38 57 18 138 0 56 -39 16 49 141 36 39 -38 50 56
137 50 16 -36 51 44 21 3 27 32 316 -10 137 1 41 -36 58 10 138 39 22 -36 45 30 136 8 46 -37 5 29 139 33 59 -36 38 53
136 8 25 -34 46 35 21 3 50 34 317 -11 135 21 45 -34 53 6 136 55 29 -34 40 14 134 30 53 -35 0 30 137 47 48 -34 33 28
134 38 18 -32 46 46 21 4 13 36 317 -11 133 53 13 -32 53 21 135 23 45 -32 40 21 133 4 2 -33 0 46 136 14 11 -32 33 29
133 17 30 -30 51 26 21 4 36 39 318 -12 132 33 44 -30 58 3 134 1 35 -30 44 58 131 45 57 -31 5 29 134 50 28 -30 38 2
132 4 14 -28 59 56 21 4 59 41 318 -12 131 21 36 -29 6 34 132 47 10 -28 53 27 130 35 0 -29 14 1 133 34 45 -28 46 29
130 57 13 -27 11 46 21 5 22 42 318 -13 130 15 32 -27 18 24 131 39 9 -27 5 16 129 29 58 -27 25 51 132 25 37 -26 58 16
129 55 25 -25 26 31 21 5 45 44 318 -13 129 14 34 -25 33 9 130 36 31 -25 20 0 128 29 54 -25 40 35 131 22 0 -25 12 59
128 58 5 -23 43 49 21 6 8 46 318 -13 128 17 57 -23 50 27 129 38 26 -23 37 19 127 34 3 -23 57 53 130 23 5 -23 30 17
128 4 34 -22 3 25 21 6 31 48 317 -13 127 25 4 -22 10 2 128 44 16 -21 56 54 126 41 52 -22 17 27 129 28 11 -21 49 52
127 14 22 -20 25 3 21 6 54 50 317 -14 126 35 26 -20 31 40 127 53 29 -20 18 32 125 52 50 -20 39 4 128 36 46 -20 11 30
126 27 5 -18 48 30 21 7 17 51 316 -14 125 48 39 -18 55 7 127 5 42 -18 42 0 125 6 34 -19 2 30 127 48 25 -18 34 58
125 42 21 -17 13 37 21 7 40 53 316 -14 125 4 21 -17 20 13 126 20 32 -17 7 7 124 22 45 -17 27 35 127 2 45 -17 0 5
124 59 55 -15 40 13 21 8 3 54 315 -14 124 22 18 -15 46 48 125 37 42 -15 33 43 123 41 6 -15 54 10 126 19 28 -15 26 41
124 19 30 -14 8 9 21 8 26 56 314 -14 123 42 14 -14 14 45 124 56 57 -14 1 40 123 1 24 -14 22 6 125 38 20 -13 54 38
123 40 56 -12 37 19 21 8 49 57 313 -14 123 3 57 -12 43 54 124 18 4 -12 30 50 122 23 27 -12 51 15 124 59 7 -12 23 47
123 4 0 -11 7 35 21 9 12 58 312 -14 122 27 17 -11 14 10 123 40 53 -11 1 6 121 47 3 -11 21 31 124 21 38 -10 54 3
Uncertainty in time = +/- 13 secs
Prediction of 2014 Apr 1.0
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