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Updated: 2014 JUL 23, 18:13 UT
Event Rank : 48
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Sep 16 UT, the 35 km diameter asteroid (170) Maria will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a narrow path across western Australia, from Carnarvon across Western Australia to Eucla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.1 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
146 41 46 -51 0 0 16 22 1 8 353 -34 147 15 4 146 8 10 148 42 20 144 37 19
146 4 38 -50 0 0 16 22 5 9 354 -35 146 37 35 145 31 24 148 3 54 144 1 31
145 25 27 -49 0 0 16 22 10 10 354 -36 145 58 5 144 52 31 147 23 35 143 23 27
144 44 12 -48 0 0 16 22 15 11 355 -37 145 16 35 144 11 31 146 41 23 142 43 7
144 0 53 -47 0 0 16 22 21 12 355 -38 144 33 3 143 28 24 145 57 17 142 0 32
143 15 28 -46 0 0 16 22 28 13 356 -39 143 47 29 142 43 9 145 11 17 141 15 40
142 27 55 -45 0 0 16 22 35 14 357 -40 142 59 50 141 55 43 144 23 19 140 28 28
141 38 12 -44 0 0 16 22 43 15 357 -41 142 10 3 141 6 3 143 33 21 139 38 54
140 46 15 -43 0 0 16 22 52 16 358 -43 141 18 5 140 14 5 142 41 20 138 46 53
139 51 58 -42 0 0 16 23 1 17 359 -44 140 23 52 139 19 45 141 47 11 137 52 20
138 55 16 -41 0 0 16 23 11 18 360 -45 139 27 16 138 22 56 140 50 49 136 55 8
137 56 2 -40 0 0 16 23 22 19 0 -46 138 28 12 137 23 31 139 52 8 135 55 9
136 54 7 -39 0 0 16 23 33 20 1 -47 137 26 32 136 21 21 138 51 0 134 52 13
135 49 22 -38 0 0 16 23 46 21 2 -49 136 22 5 135 16 15 137 47 17 133 46 8
134 41 34 -37 0 0 16 23 59 22 3 -50 135 14 40 134 8 2 136 40 49 132 36 40
133 30 28 -36 0 0 16 24 13 23 4 -51 134 4 4 132 56 26 135 31 22 131 23 31
132 15 48 -35 0 0 16 24 28 24 6 -53 132 50 0 131 41 8 134 18 43 130 6 20
130 57 13 -34 0 0 16 24 45 25 7 -54 131 32 7 130 21 47 133 2 34 128 44 41
129 34 16 -33 0 0 16 25 2 25 8 -56 130 10 3 128 57 54 131 42 34 127 18 1
128 6 25 -32 0 0 16 25 21 26 9 -57 128 43 16 127 28 55 130 18 19 125 45 38
126 33 1 -31 0 0 16 25 41 27 11 -59 127 11 8 125 54 8 128 49 15 124 6 38
124 53 9 -30 0 0 16 26 2 28 12 -60 125 32 53 124 12 33 127 14 43 122 19 48
123 5 41 -29 0 0 16 26 25 28 14 -62 123 47 24 122 22 56 125 33 53 120 23 27
121 9 1 -28 0 0 16 26 51 29 16 -63 121 53 17 120 23 29 123 45 36 118 15 6
119 0 50 -27 0 0 16 27 18 29 18 -65 119 48 28 118 11 33 121 48 19 115 50 55
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
118 0 0 -26 33 38 16 27 31 29 19 -65 -26 12 28 -26 55 3 -25 17 22 -27 53 21
117 0 0 -26 8 55 16 27 44 30 20 -66 -25 47 58 -26 30 7 -24 53 24 -27 27 47
116 0 0 -25 45 28 16 27 57 30 21 -66 -25 24 43 -26 6 28 -24 30 39 -27 3 33
115 0 0 -25 23 17 16 28 10 30 22 -67 -25 2 43 -25 44 5 -24 9 6 -26 40 38
114 0 0 -25 2 19 16 28 23 30 23 -67 -24 41 55 -25 22 56 -23 48 44 -26 18 59
113 0 0 -24 42 34 16 28 35 30 24 -68 -24 22 20 -25 3 1 -23 29 32 -25 58 37
112 0 0 -24 24 1 16 28 48 30 25 -68 -24 3 56 -24 44 20 -23 11 30 -25 39 30
111 0 0 -24 6 40 16 29 0 29 26 -68 -23 46 43 -24 26 50 -22 54 37 -25 21 37
110 0 0 -23 50 30 16 29 13 29 26 -69 -23 30 40 -24 10 33 -22 38 52 -25 4 57
109 0 0 -23 35 30 16 29 25 29 27 -69 -23 15 46 -23 55 25 -22 24 16 -24 49 31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2014 Apr 1.0
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