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Updated: 2014 SEP 19, 12:34 UT
Event Rank : 79
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Nov 04 UT, the 56 km diameter asteroid (480) Hansa will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a path passing over South Island passing near Wanaka and Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.8 mag to 12.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
167 58 36 -51 0 0 10 46 30 16 359 -20 167 31 26 168 25 49 166 53 28 169 3 59
168 11 32 -50 0 0 10 46 28 17 359 -21 167 44 54 168 38 12 167 7 42 169 15 37
168 24 48 -49 0 0 10 46 25 18 359 -22 167 58 41 168 50 58 167 22 12 169 27 40
168 38 25 -48 0 0 10 46 22 19 359 -23 168 12 47 169 4 5 167 36 57 169 40 7
168 52 21 -47 0 0 10 46 19 20 358 -24 168 27 10 169 17 34 167 51 59 169 52 58
169 6 36 -46 0 0 10 46 16 21 358 -25 168 41 51 169 31 23 168 7 16 170 6 11
169 21 10 -45 0 0 10 46 12 22 358 -26 168 56 49 169 45 33 168 22 48 170 19 46
169 36 2 -44 0 0 10 46 9 23 358 -27 169 12 4 170 0 2 168 38 35 170 33 43
169 51 12 -43 0 0 10 46 5 24 358 -28 169 27 36 170 14 51 168 54 38 170 48 1
170 6 41 -42 0 0 10 46 1 25 357 -28 169 43 25 170 29 59 169 10 56 171 2 40
170 22 27 -41 0 0 10 45 57 26 357 -29 169 59 31 170 45 26 169 27 29 171 17 39
170 38 31 -40 0 0 10 45 53 27 357 -30 170 15 54 171 1 11 169 44 17 171 32 59
170 54 53 -39 0 0 10 45 48 28 356 -31 170 32 33 171 17 16 170 1 21 171 48 39
171 11 33 -38 0 0 10 45 44 29 356 -32 170 49 30 171 33 39 170 18 41 172 4 39
171 28 31 -37 0 0 10 45 39 30 356 -33 171 6 43 171 50 21 170 36 16 172 20 59
171 45 46 -36 0 0 10 45 35 31 355 -34 171 24 13 172 7 22 170 54 6 172 37 39
172 3 19 -35 0 0 10 45 30 32 355 -35 171 42 0 172 24 41 171 12 13 172 54 39
172 21 11 -34 0 0 10 45 25 33 355 -36 172 0 5 172 42 19 171 30 36 173 11 59
172 39 20 -33 0 0 10 45 19 34 354 -37 172 18 27 173 0 16 171 49 15 173 29 39
172 57 48 -32 0 0 10 45 14 35 354 -38 172 37 6 173 18 32 172 8 11 173 47 38
173 16 35 -31 0 0 10 45 8 35 354 -39 172 56 4 173 37 8 172 27 24 174 5 58
173 35 40 -30 0 0 10 45 3 36 353 -40 173 15 19 173 56 3 172 46 54 174 24 39
173 55 4 -29 0 0 10 44 57 37 353 -41 173 34 53 174 15 17 173 6 42 174 43 40
174 14 48 -28 0 0 10 44 51 38 352 -42 173 54 46 174 34 52 173 26 47 175 3 2
174 34 51 -27 0 0 10 44 45 39 352 -43 174 14 58 174 54 47 173 47 11 175 22 45
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2014 Sep 19.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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