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Updated: 2014 OCT 27, 10:50 UT
Event Rank : 18
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Dec 25 UT, the 21 km diameter asteroid (3262) Miune will occult a 8.4 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across Australia along the west coast of Tasmania and from near Ceduna across western South Australia and north-eastern Western Australia to Wyndham.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.7 mag to 16.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
152 1 55 -46 0 0 14 20 24 8 288 -20 152 29 12 151 35 18 156 19 47 148 34 47
149 32 25 -45 0 0 14 20 35 10 290 -22 149 55 59 149 9 17 153 7 47 146 29 16
147 25 29 -44 0 0 14 20 46 12 291 -23 147 46 32 147 4 45 150 34 23 144 39 29
145 34 56 -43 0 0 14 20 58 13 292 -24 145 54 8 145 15 58 148 25 20 143 1 57
143 57 0 -42 0 0 14 21 10 15 293 -25 144 14 48 143 39 25 146 33 33 141 34 20
142 29 15 -41 0 0 14 21 23 16 294 -26 142 45 53 142 12 46 144 54 55 140 14 58
141 9 54 -40 0 0 14 21 36 17 295 -27 141 25 36 140 54 19 143 26 46 139 2 38
139 57 40 -39 0 0 14 21 50 19 295 -28 140 12 35 139 42 51 142 7 14 137 56 22
138 51 34 -38 0 0 14 22 5 20 296 -29 139 5 49 138 37 25 140 54 58 136 55 24
137 50 51 -37 0 0 14 22 19 21 296 -29 138 4 31 137 37 16 139 48 57 135 59 9
136 54 52 -36 0 0 14 22 34 22 297 -30 137 8 2 136 41 47 138 48 22 135 7 6
136 3 8 -35 0 0 14 22 49 23 297 -31 136 15 51 135 50 29 137 52 37 134 18 51
135 15 13 -34 0 0 14 23 5 24 297 -32 135 27 32 135 2 58 137 1 8 133 34 2
134 30 47 -33 0 0 14 23 21 25 297 -33 134 42 44 134 18 52 136 13 32 132 52 23
133 49 30 -32 0 0 14 23 37 26 297 -34 134 1 9 133 37 55 135 29 25 132 13 38
133 11 9 -31 0 0 14 23 54 27 297 -35 133 22 30 132 59 51 134 48 31 131 37 33
132 35 30 -30 0 0 14 24 10 28 297 -36 132 46 35 132 24 27 134 10 34 131 3 57
132 2 20 -29 0 0 14 24 28 28 297 -37 132 13 12 131 51 32 133 35 20 130 32 40
131 31 32 -28 0 0 14 24 45 29 297 -37 131 42 10 131 20 55 133 2 37 130 3 34
131 2 54 -27 0 0 14 25 2 30 296 -38 131 13 21 130 52 30 132 32 17 129 36 30
130 36 21 -26 0 0 14 25 20 31 296 -39 130 46 37 130 26 7 132 4 10 129 11 22
130 11 44 -25 0 0 14 25 38 31 296 -40 130 21 51 130 1 40 131 38 8 128 48 3
129 48 58 -24 0 0 14 25 57 32 295 -41 129 58 56 129 39 3 131 14 4 128 26 29
129 27 58 -23 0 0 14 26 15 33 295 -42 129 37 48 129 18 11 130 51 53 128 6 34
129 8 39 -22 0 0 14 26 34 33 295 -43 129 18 22 128 58 59 130 31 29 127 48 15
128 50 57 -21 0 0 14 26 53 34 294 -44 129 0 32 128 41 23 130 12 48 127 31 27
128 34 47 -20 0 0 14 27 12 35 294 -44 128 44 17 128 25 20 129 55 46 127 16 7
128 20 8 -19 0 0 14 27 31 35 293 -45 128 29 32 128 10 46 129 40 18 127 2 12
128 6 55 -18 0 0 14 27 51 36 292 -46 128 16 14 127 57 38 129 26 22 126 49 39
127 55 7 -17 0 0 14 28 11 36 292 -47 128 4 21 127 45 54 129 13 56 126 38 27
127 44 41 -16 0 0 14 28 31 36 291 -48 127 53 51 127 35 32 129 2 55 126 28 32
127 35 35 -15 0 0 14 28 51 37 291 -49 127 44 42 127 26 29 128 53 19 126 19 55
127 27 48 -14 0 0 14 29 11 37 290 -50 127 36 52 127 18 45 128 45 6 126 12 32
127 21 18 -13 0 0 14 29 31 38 289 -51 127 30 20 127 12 18 128 38 14 126 6 23
127 16 4 -12 0 0 14 29 52 38 288 -52 127 25 4 127 7 7 128 32 43 126 1 27
127 12 7 -11 0 0 14 30 12 38 288 -53 127 21 4 127 3 10 128 28 30 125 57 43
127 9 23 -10 0 0 14 30 33 39 287 -53 127 18 20 127 0 29 128 25 36 125 55 10
127 7 55 - 9 0 0 14 30 54 39 286 -54 127 16 51 126 59 1 128 24 0 125 53 49
127 7 41 - 8 0 0 14 31 15 39 285 -55 127 16 36 126 58 47 128 23 42 125 53 39
127 8 41 - 7 0 0 14 31 37 39 285 -56 127 17 36 126 59 48 128 24 42 125 54 40
127 10 56 - 6 0 0 14 31 58 39 284 -57 127 19 52 127 2 3 128 27 1 125 56 53
127 14 27 - 5 0 0 14 32 19 39 283 -58 127 23 23 127 5 32 128 30 38 126 0 17
127 19 13 - 4 0 0 14 32 41 39 282 -59 127 28 11 127 10 18 128 35 36 126 4 54
127 25 17 - 3 0 0 14 33 2 39 281 -60 127 34 16 127 16 20 128 41 54 126 10 45
Uncertainty in time = +/- 16 secs
Prediction of 2014 Nov 12.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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