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Updated: 2015 APR 06, 10:42 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 May 03 UT, the 150 km diameter asteroid (776) Berbericia will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across Australia beginning in Northern Territory east of Darwin, and moving through central Australia before ending over Esperance in WA.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
117 25 52 -49 0 0 14 9 19 15 348 -49 115 52 29 119 0 54 115 11 53 119 43 17
117 36 36 -48 0 0 14 9 14 16 348 -50 116 4 49 119 10 0 115 24 55 119 51 39
117 48 47 -47 0 0 14 9 9 17 348 -50 116 18 29 119 20 39 115 39 13 120 1 36
118 2 19 -46 0 0 14 9 3 18 348 -51 116 33 25 119 32 46 115 54 45 120 13 5
118 17 11 -45 0 0 14 8 57 19 347 -52 116 49 34 119 46 19 116 11 27 120 26 3
118 33 20 -44 0 0 14 8 51 20 347 -53 117 6 54 120 1 14 116 29 18 120 40 25
118 50 42 -43 0 0 14 8 45 21 347 -54 117 25 22 120 17 28 116 48 15 120 56 9
119 9 16 -42 0 0 14 8 38 22 346 -54 117 44 58 120 35 0 117 8 18 121 13 12
119 29 1 -41 0 0 14 8 31 23 346 -55 118 5 39 120 53 47 117 29 24 121 31 33
119 49 54 -40 0 0 14 8 24 24 345 -56 118 27 25 121 13 47 117 51 32 121 51 10
120 11 55 -39 0 0 14 8 16 25 345 -57 118 50 14 121 35 0 118 14 42 122 12 1
120 35 3 -38 0 0 14 8 8 25 345 -58 119 14 6 121 57 23 118 38 53 122 34 5
120 59 17 -37 0 0 14 8 0 26 344 -58 119 38 59 122 20 57 119 4 4 122 57 21
121 24 36 -36 0 0 14 7 51 27 344 -59 120 4 54 122 45 40 119 30 15 123 21 48
121 51 0 -35 0 0 14 7 42 28 343 -60 120 31 51 123 11 32 119 57 26 123 47 26
122 18 30 -34 0 0 14 7 33 29 342 -61 120 59 49 123 38 34 120 25 36 124 14 15
122 47 5 -33 0 0 14 7 24 30 342 -62 121 28 49 124 6 44 120 54 47 124 42 15
123 16 46 -32 0 0 14 7 14 31 341 -63 121 58 51 124 36 4 121 24 58 125 11 26
123 47 32 -31 0 0 14 7 4 31 340 -64 122 29 55 125 6 34 121 56 11 125 41 49
124 19 26 -30 0 0 14 6 54 32 340 -64 123 2 3 125 38 14 122 28 25 126 13 24
124 52 28 -29 0 0 14 6 43 33 339 -65 123 35 15 126 11 7 123 1 42 126 46 12
125 26 38 -28 0 0 14 6 32 34 338 -66 124 9 33 126 45 12 123 36 3 127 20 15
126 1 59 -27 0 0 14 6 21 34 337 -67 124 44 57 127 20 31 124 11 30 127 55 34
126 38 33 -26 0 0 14 6 9 35 337 -68 125 21 30 127 57 6 124 48 3 128 32 11
127 16 20 -25 0 0 14 5 57 36 336 -69 125 59 13 128 34 59 125 25 45 129 10 8
127 55 23 -24 0 0 14 5 45 37 335 -70 126 38 8 129 14 13 126 4 37 129 49 26
128 35 45 -23 0 0 14 5 33 37 334 -70 127 18 17 129 54 49 126 44 42 130 30 10
129 17 28 -22 0 0 14 5 20 38 333 -71 127 59 44 130 36 52 127 26 2 131 12 22
130 0 35 -21 0 0 14 5 7 38 332 -72 128 42 31 131 20 23 128 8 40 131 56 5
130 45 10 -20 0 0 14 4 53 39 331 -73 129 26 40 132 5 28 128 52 40 132 41 24
131 31 17 -19 0 0 14 4 39 40 330 -74 130 12 17 132 52 9 129 38 4 133 28 22
132 19 0 -18 0 0 14 4 25 40 329 -75 130 59 24 133 40 33 130 24 57 134 17 5
133 8 24 -17 0 0 14 4 11 40 327 -75 131 48 6 134 30 44 131 13 22 135 7 39
133 59 35 -16 0 0 14 3 56 41 326 -76 132 38 29 135 22 49 132 3 26 136 0 10
134 52 39 -15 0 0 14 3 41 41 325 -77 133 30 38 136 16 54 132 55 12 136 54 44
135 47 42 -14 0 0 14 3 25 42 323 -78 134 24 39 137 13 7 133 48 48 137 51 32
136 44 54 -13 0 0 14 3 9 42 322 -78 135 20 40 138 11 39 134 44 21 138 50 41
137 44 23 -12 0 0 14 2 53 42 321 -79 136 18 49 139 12 38 135 41 57 139 52 24
138 46 19 -11 0 0 14 2 36 42 319 -79 137 19 15 140 16 17 136 41 46 140 56 53
139 50 56 -10 0 0 14 2 19 42 318 -80 138 22 9 141 22 51 137 43 59 142 4 23
140 58 27 - 9 0 0 14 2 1 42 316 -80 139 27 44 142 32 35 138 48 46 143 15 12
142 9 10 - 8 0 0 14 1 43 42 315 -80 140 36 13 143 45 50 139 56 23 144 29 42
143 23 24 - 7 0 0 14 1 25 42 313 -80 141 47 54 145 3 0 141 7 3 145 48 18
144 41 33 - 6 0 0 14 1 5 42 312 -79 143 3 8 146 24 34 142 21 7 147 11 33
146 4 7 - 5 0 0 14 0 46 42 310 -79 144 22 18 147 51 7 143 38 57 148 40 6
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2015 Apr 6.0
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