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Updated: 2015 SEP 19, 03:28 UT
Event Rank : 27
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Nov 08 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (2870) Haupt will occult a 10.0 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path over Hobart and then Adelaide. Then into WA ending over Newman and Onslow.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.1 mag to 16.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
151 21 48 -48 0 0 16 39 43 20 6 -14 151 37 12 151 6 22 152 52 23 149 49 43
150 31 13 -47 0 0 16 40 17 21 6 -15 150 46 30 150 15 54 152 1 3 148 59 52
149 39 1 -46 0 0 16 40 53 22 7 -16 149 54 11 149 23 48 151 8 12 148 8 17
148 45 10 -45 0 0 16 41 30 23 8 -17 149 0 15 148 30 3 150 13 49 147 14 58
147 49 39 -44 0 0 16 42 10 24 9 -18 148 4 40 147 34 36 149 17 51 146 19 52
146 52 26 -43 0 0 16 42 51 25 10 -19 147 7 23 146 37 26 148 20 17 145 22 58
145 53 26 -42 0 0 16 43 34 26 10 -20 146 8 21 145 38 29 147 21 3 144 24 12
144 52 39 -41 0 0 16 44 19 26 11 -22 145 7 32 144 37 43 146 20 6 143 23 31
143 49 59 -40 0 0 16 45 6 27 12 -23 144 4 52 143 35 3 145 17 23 142 20 51
142 45 22 -39 0 0 16 45 55 28 13 -24 143 0 16 142 30 25 144 12 50 141 16 8
141 38 44 -38 0 0 16 46 46 29 14 -25 141 53 40 141 23 46 143 6 22 140 9 18
140 30 0 -37 0 0 16 47 39 30 15 -26 140 44 58 140 14 58 141 57 54 139 0 13
139 19 2 -36 0 0 16 48 34 30 17 -28 139 34 5 139 3 56 140 47 20 137 48 47
138 5 46 -35 0 0 16 49 31 31 18 -29 138 20 54 137 50 34 139 34 34 136 34 54
136 50 1 -34 0 0 16 50 31 32 19 -30 137 5 17 136 34 42 138 19 29 135 18 24
135 31 40 -33 0 0 16 51 33 32 20 -32 135 47 4 135 16 12 137 1 56 133 59 8
134 10 32 -32 0 0 16 52 37 33 22 -33 134 26 6 133 54 53 135 41 46 132 36 53
132 46 24 -31 0 0 16 53 43 34 23 -34 133 2 11 132 30 33 134 18 48 131 11 27
131 19 4 -30 0 0 16 54 52 34 25 -36 131 35 6 131 2 58 132 52 50 129 42 35
129 48 15 -29 0 0 16 56 4 35 26 -37 130 4 34 129 31 52 131 23 37 128 9 57
128 13 38 -28 0 0 16 57 19 35 28 -39 128 30 16 127 56 54 129 50 51 126 33 11
126 34 49 -27 0 0 16 58 36 35 29 -40 126 51 51 126 17 41 128 14 14 124 51 52
124 51 21 -26 0 0 16 59 57 35 31 -42 125 8 50 124 33 45 126 33 20 123 5 27
123 2 40 -25 0 0 17 1 21 36 33 -43 123 20 42 122 44 31 124 47 42 121 13 14
121 8 4 -24 0 0 17 2 49 36 35 -45 121 26 45 120 49 15 122 56 43 119 14 24
119 6 39 -23 0 0 17 4 21 36 37 -46 119 26 7 118 47 1 120 59 39 117 7 49
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
118 0 0 -22 28 36 17 5 11 36 38 -47 -22 19 20 -22 37 54 -21 34 20 -23 24 15
117 0 0 -22 1 15 17 5 56 35 39 -48 -21 52 4 -22 10 28 -21 7 25 -22 56 26
116 0 0 -21 34 45 17 6 40 35 40 -49 -21 25 39 -21 43 54 -20 41 21 -22 29 29
115 0 0 -21 9 7 17 7 24 35 41 -49 -21 0 4 -21 18 12 -20 16 6 -22 3 26
114 0 0 -20 44 19 17 8 8 35 41 -50 -20 35 20 -20 53 20 -19 51 40 -21 38 14
113 0 0 -20 20 22 17 8 51 35 42 -51 -20 11 27 -20 29 19 -19 28 4 -21 13 54
112 0 0 -19 57 14 17 9 34 34 43 -51 -19 48 23 -20 6 8 -19 5 16 -20 50 25
111 0 0 -19 34 57 17 10 16 34 44 -52 -19 26 8 -19 43 47 -18 43 17 -20 27 47
110 0 0 -19 13 28 17 10 58 34 45 -52 -19 4 43 -19 22 16 -18 22 6 -20 6 0
Uncertainty in time = +/- 26 secs
Prediction of 2015 Sep 19.0
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