|
|
Updated: 2015 OCT 08, 21:03 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Nov 12 UT, the 79 km diameter asteroid (389) Industria will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path across Western Australia passing near Shark Bay, Carnarvon, Leonora and Eucla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.7 mag to 12.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
135 37 15 -37 0 0 19 4 39 33 22 -7 134 28 43 136 44 21 133 52 27 137 18 43
134 15 48 -36 0 0 19 4 26 34 24 -9 133 6 18 135 23 45 132 29 30 135 58 31
132 51 28 -35 0 0 19 4 12 34 25 -10 131 40 47 134 0 28 131 3 18 134 35 44
131 23 54 -34 0 0 19 3 58 35 27 -12 130 11 45 132 34 11 129 33 27 133 10 3
129 52 39 -33 0 0 19 3 43 35 29 -14 128 38 46 131 4 30 127 59 27 131 41 7
128 17 14 -32 0 0 19 3 28 35 31 -15 127 1 12 129 30 58 126 20 40 130 8 29
126 37 0 -31 0 0 19 3 12 35 34 -17 125 18 21 127 53 2 124 36 18 128 31 37
124 51 8 -30 0 0 19 2 55 35 36 -19 123 29 15 126 9 58 122 45 20 126 49 53
122 58 34 -29 0 0 19 2 37 35 38 -21 121 32 39 124 20 54 120 46 22 125 2 26
120 57 55 -28 0 0 19 2 18 34 41 -23 119 26 50 122 24 37 118 37 29 123 8 12
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
119 0 0 -27 5 39 19 2 0 34 43 -25 -27 47 50 -26 24 17 -28 10 6 -26 3 4
118 0 0 -26 39 38 19 1 51 34 44 -26 -27 21 27 -25 58 35 -27 43 31 -25 37 33
117 0 0 -26 14 41 19 1 43 33 45 -27 -26 56 9 -25 33 58 -27 18 3 -25 13 5
116 0 0 -25 50 49 19 1 34 33 46 -28 -26 31 58 -25 10 24 -26 53 41 -24 49 41
115 0 0 -25 28 2 19 1 25 32 47 -29 -26 8 53 -24 47 55 -26 30 25 -24 27 20
114 0 0 -25 6 19 19 1 17 32 48 -30 -25 46 52 -24 26 28 -26 8 15 -24 6 2
113 0 0 -24 45 40 19 1 9 31 49 -31 -25 25 57 -24 6 5 -25 47 11 -23 45 46
112 0 0 -24 26 5 19 1 1 31 50 -32 -25 6 6 -23 46 45 -25 27 12 -23 26 33
111 0 0 -24 7 33 19 0 53 30 51 -33 -24 47 20 -23 28 27 -25 8 18 -23 8 22
110 0 0 -23 50 4 19 0 45 30 52 -34 -24 29 37 -23 11 12 -24 50 28 -22 51 14
109 0 0 -23 33 39 19 0 37 29 53 -34 -24 12 59 -22 54 58 -24 33 42 -22 35 6
108 0 0 -23 18 16 19 0 30 29 53 -35 -23 57 23 -22 39 46 -24 18 1 -22 20 0
107 0 0 -23 3 55 19 0 22 28 54 -36 -23 42 51 -22 25 36 -24 3 22 -22 5 55
106 0 0 -22 50 36 19 0 15 27 55 -37 -23 29 22 -22 12 27 -23 49 47 -21 52 51
105 0 0 -22 38 18 19 0 8 27 56 -38 -23 16 55 -22 0 19 -23 37 15 -21 40 48
104 0 0 -22 27 2 19 0 1 26 57 -39 -23 5 30 -21 49 11 -23 25 45 -21 29 45
103 0 0 -22 16 47 18 59 55 25 57 -39 -22 55 7 -21 39 4 -23 15 17 -21 19 41
102 0 0 -22 7 33 18 59 48 25 58 -40 -22 45 45 -21 29 57 -23 5 52 -21 10 38
101 0 0 -21 59 20 18 59 42 24 59 -41 -22 37 25 -21 21 50 -22 57 28 -21 2 34
100 0 0 -21 52 6 18 59 36 23 59 -41 -22 30 6 -21 14 43 -22 50 6 -20 55 29
99 0 0 -21 45 53 18 59 30 22 60 -42 -22 23 47 -21 8 35 -22 43 45 -20 49 24
98 0 0 -21 40 40 18 59 25 22 60 -43 -22 18 30 -21 3 26 -22 38 24 -20 44 17
97 0 0 -21 36 27 18 59 19 21 61 -43 -22 14 12 -20 59 16 -22 34 5 -20 40 9
96 0 0 -21 33 13 18 59 14 20 62 -44 -22 10 55 -20 56 5 -22 30 46 -20 37 0
95 0 0 -21 30 58 18 59 9 19 62 -44 -22 8 38 -20 53 53 -22 28 27 -20 34 49
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2015 Oct 9.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]