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Updated: 2015 OCT 08, 21:20 UT
Event Rank : 81
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Nov 20 UT, the 47 km diameter asteroid (759) Vinifera will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a north-to-south path over Western Australia from Kununurra to Cocklebiddy.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.4 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 23 2 -35 0 0 11 21 7 19 9 -11 125 7 23 125 38 40 124 46 43 125 59 19
125 34 42 -34 0 0 11 21 2 20 9 -11 125 19 14 125 50 9 124 58 49 126 10 33
125 46 8 -33 0 0 11 20 56 21 9 -12 125 30 51 126 1 24 125 10 40 126 21 34
125 57 21 -32 0 0 11 20 50 22 9 -13 125 42 14 126 12 27 125 22 17 126 32 23
126 8 21 -31 0 0 11 20 44 23 9 -13 125 53 24 126 23 18 125 33 40 126 43 1
126 19 10 -30 0 0 11 20 37 24 9 -14 126 4 23 126 33 58 125 44 51 126 53 28
126 29 49 -29 0 0 11 20 30 25 9 -15 126 15 10 126 44 27 125 55 50 127 3 46
126 40 17 -28 0 0 11 20 23 27 9 -15 126 25 47 126 54 47 126 6 38 127 13 56
126 50 37 -27 0 0 11 20 16 28 9 -16 126 36 14 127 4 59 126 17 16 127 23 57
127 0 47 -26 0 0 11 20 9 29 8 -17 126 46 32 127 15 2 126 27 44 127 33 50
127 10 50 -25 0 0 11 20 1 30 8 -17 126 56 42 127 24 58 126 38 3 127 43 36
127 20 45 -24 0 0 11 19 53 31 8 -18 127 6 44 127 34 46 126 48 14 127 53 16
127 30 33 -23 0 0 11 19 45 32 8 -18 127 16 39 127 44 28 126 58 17 128 2 49
127 40 15 -22 0 0 11 19 36 33 8 -19 127 26 27 127 54 4 127 8 13 128 12 17
127 49 51 -21 0 0 11 19 28 34 8 -20 127 36 8 128 3 34 127 18 2 128 21 39
127 59 21 -20 0 0 11 19 19 35 8 -20 127 45 44 128 12 58 127 27 44 128 30 57
128 8 46 -19 0 0 11 19 10 36 8 -21 127 55 14 128 22 18 127 37 21 128 40 10
128 18 6 -18 0 0 11 19 0 37 8 -22 128 4 38 128 31 34 127 46 52 128 49 19
128 27 22 -17 0 0 11 18 51 38 8 -22 128 13 59 128 40 45 127 56 18 128 58 25
128 36 33 -16 0 0 11 18 41 39 8 -23 128 23 14 128 49 52 128 5 39 129 7 27
128 45 41 -15 0 0 11 18 31 40 8 -23 128 32 26 128 58 56 128 14 56 129 16 26
128 54 45 -14 0 0 11 18 20 41 8 -24 128 41 34 129 7 57 128 24 9 129 25 22
129 3 47 -13 0 0 11 18 10 42 8 -24 128 50 38 129 16 55 128 33 18 129 34 15
129 12 45 -12 0 0 11 17 59 43 8 -25 128 59 39 129 25 50 128 42 23 129 43 6
129 21 40 -11 0 0 11 17 48 44 8 -26 129 8 38 129 34 42 128 51 25 129 51 55
129 30 33 -10 0 0 11 17 37 45 8 -26 129 17 33 129 43 33 129 0 24 130 0 42
129 39 24 - 9 0 0 11 17 26 46 8 -27 129 26 26 129 52 21 129 9 20 130 9 28
129 48 13 - 8 0 0 11 17 15 47 8 -27 129 35 17 130 1 8 129 18 13 130 18 12
129 57 0 - 7 0 0 11 17 3 48 8 -28 129 44 6 130 9 53 129 27 4 130 26 55
130 5 45 - 6 0 0 11 16 51 49 8 -28 129 52 53 130 18 37 129 35 53 130 35 36
130 14 29 - 5 0 0 11 16 39 50 9 -29 130 1 38 130 27 20 129 44 40 130 44 17
130 23 12 - 4 0 0 11 16 27 51 9 -29 130 10 22 130 36 1 129 53 25 130 52 58
130 31 53 - 3 0 0 11 16 15 52 9 -30 130 19 4 130 44 42 130 2 9 131 1 37
130 40 34 - 2 0 0 11 16 2 53 9 -30 130 27 45 130 53 22 130 10 51 131 10 17
130 49 14 - 1 0 0 11 15 49 54 9 -31 130 36 26 131 2 2 130 19 32 131 18 56
130 57 53 0 0 0 11 15 36 54 9 -31 130 45 5 131 10 41 130 28 11 131 27 35
131 6 32 1 0 0 11 15 23 55 9 -32 130 53 44 131 19 20 130 36 50 131 36 14
131 15 11 2 0 0 11 15 10 56 9 -32 131 2 22 131 27 59 130 45 28 131 44 53
131 23 49 3 0 0 11 14 57 57 9 -33 131 11 0 131 36 38 130 54 5 131 53 33
131 32 27 4 0 0 11 14 43 58 9 -33 131 19 37 131 45 17 131 2 41 132 2 13
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2015 Oct 9.0
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[Observing Details]
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